Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 16

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 15 QB1s

Week Fifteen might be the week we remember for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy locking up the 2023 NFL MVP. While Jalen Hurts failed to lead his team to a much-needed victory and Dak Prescott was shut down by the Bills, Purdy put on another show, tossing four touchdowns in a rout of Arizona. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford stayed hot, posting his fourth straight top-ten fantasy rank after failing to even crack the top-twelve through the first eleven weeks of the season.

Season-Long QB1s

CJ Stroud missed last week and is slated to miss a second straight game in Week Sixteen. He dropped from QB6 to QB10 and will likely fall from the QB1 list. Justin Herbert also continued his inevitable slide, now down to QB12 for the season. Jared Goff finished as the QB1 for the week and that helped put him back on this list, jumping up to QB9. He replaced Tua Tagovailoa.

Most QB1 Games this Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders have now allowed a league-high 12 QB1 games on the season and they’re also the only team in the league surrendering more than 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Week Sixteen matchup will be difficult to exploit. The Commanders face the Jets and starter Zach Wilson remains in concussion protocol following an odd departure from last week’s game. Perhaps we’ll see Trevor Siemian get the start but he still doesn’t belong in fantasy lineups.

The Jaguars have given up ten QB1 games, which should help Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield stay hot. Mayfield lit up the Packers last week with his best game of the season.

Three other teams are allowing more than 23 fantasy points per game, making them targets when searching for fantasy quarterbacks. They are the Eagles (vs. Tommy DeVito), Chargers (vs. Josh Allen) and Buccaneers (vs. Trevor Lawrence.)

The Ravens and Panthers have allowed only two QB1 games all season. This week, Baltimore travels to San Francisco on Christmas night to face the 49ers, causing a difficult decision for Purdy managers in the second round of the fantasy playoffs. In a much less-heralded contest, the Panthers will host Jordan Love and the Packers in what should be a low-scoring game.

Other defenses to avoid in Week Sixteen include the Jets (vs. Sam Howell), Browns (vs. Case Keenum), Patriots (vs. Russell Wilson) and Saints (vs. Stafford.)

Running Backs

Week 15 RB1s

James Cook and Rachaad White have been linked for much of the past year. After somewhat successful rookie seasons in 2022, their respective teams handed them to lead jobs this season and it has paid off. White is among the safest workhorse backs in the league while Cook has come alive following the Bills change at offensive coordinator a month ago. If you had the guts to rely on a backup in a good spot last week, you likely got rewarded. Ty Chandler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Zamir White were each thrust into the starting lineup as their teams’ respective starters were dealing with injuries. Each rewarded fantasy managers with their first RB1 performance of the season (and the first ever for Chandler and White.)

Season-Long RB1s

Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs moved into the RB1 range with Cook jumping all the way up to RB7. They replaced the injured Josh Jacobs and the “might as well have been injured” Bijan Robinson. Kyren Williams was the other significant riser of the week, climbing from RB10 to RB8. Derrick Henry and Breece Hall were the fallers and both could be off this list completely if they have a repeat performance for the holidays.

Most RB1 Games this Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals continue to struggle against the run, allowing 17 top-24 fantasy performances to opposing backfields. The Bears three-man committee might offer Arizona a reprieve, or at the very least, spread out the scoring. At this point, who knows what to expect from D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert.

Other teams giving up at least 25 fantasy points per game include the Chargers (vs. Cook), Panthers (vs. Aaron Jones), Colts (vs. Bijan Robinson) and Broncos (vs. Ezekiel Elliott.)

The Lions have been strict against opposing backs, allowing just six top-24 games through the entire season. This week, they’ll face off against division-foe Minnesota and some combination of Chandler and Alexander Mattison.

In addition to Detroit, four other teams are giving up less than 18 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. They include the Falcons (vs. Jonathan Taylor?), Rams (vs. Alvin Kamara), Ravens (vs. Christian McCaffrey) and Eagles (vs. Saquon Barkley.)

© lon horwedel-usa today sports

Wide Receivers

Week 15 WR1s

With superstars Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill slowed by injuries, their respective running mates took over. Rookie Jordan Addison caught all six of his targets, including two for touchdowns, as he totaled 111 yards. Jaylen Waddle finally put together a big day with Hill on the sidelines. Waddle hit on a 60-yard score that head coach Mike McDaniel accurately predicted before the drive began. Waddle ended the day with 142 yards on eight catches.

Season-Long WR1s

Amon-Ra St. Brown is back among the top-five receivers on the year after his strong Saturday night performance pushed him up from WR8. The injured Nico Collins fell off the list, replaced by red-hot Deebo Samuel, who has a rushing touchdown and a top-ten fantasy finish in three straight contests.

Most WR1 Games this Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

What more can even be said for the Eagles pass defense at this point. They’ve allowed 23 top-24 fantasy performances in just 14 games this season. I have no idea which Giants wide receiver I’d feel confident rolling out this week, but odds say that one of them fares well. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton have the best chance.

Other defenses giving up more than 38 fantasy points per game to opposing receiver rooms include the Commanders (vs. Garrett Wilson), Chargers (vs. Stefon Diggs), Buccaneers (vs. Calvin Ridley) and Giants (vs. AJ Brown/DeVonta Smith.)

The Broncos and Steelers have been able to shut down opposing receivers, allowing five and six top-24 receiver games, respectively. This week, Denver faces the Patriots’ crew, including Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker. Pittsburgh faces a much tougher test against the Bengals, although they will be missing Ja’Marr Chase.

Other teams who have served as difficult matchups against opposing receivers include the Jets (vs. Terry McLaurin), Browns (vs. Nico Collins?), Saints (vs. Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua) and Panthers (vs. Jayden Reed/Romeo Doubs.)

Tight Ends

Week 15 TE1s

Superstar rookie Sam LaPorta got many fantasy teams off to a hot start on Saturday night, catching a hat trick of touchdowns on his way to another overall TE1 performance. It’s hard to deny LaPorta is the dynasty TE1. David Njoku, Trey McBride and Isaiah Likely all stayed hot for the week while Packers Tucker Kraft now has more TE1 games than his fellow rookie teammate Luke Musgrave.

Season-Long TE1s

Trey McBride bounced back in Week Fifteen, climbing two spots up to the TE8 rank for the year. The rest of the top-twelve remains largely unchanged. Although we might see small shifts among them, the trio of TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce and LaPorta are essentially locked in as the top-three scorers for the year.

Most TE1 Games this Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals are up to ten TE1 games allowed for the season and now face Pat Freiermuth and Steelers this week. The Broncos are next in line, giving up nine TE1 games and the most fantasy points to the position. This week, that might be what Hunter Henry needs to stay hot. Henry is coming off back-to-back TE4 games and has three scores over the past two weeks.
Other matchups to target this week include the Bears (vs. McBride), Texans (vs. Njoku) and Jaguars (vs. Cade Otton.)

The trio of Buffalo, Dallas and Tennessee have each allowed two TE1 games on the season. This week, that means to adjust expectations for Gerald Everett (vs. BUF), Durham Smythe (vs. DAL) and Noah Fant (vs. TEN.) Fortunately, these are all easy fades, especially in the fantasy playoffs.

The Browns (vs. Dalton Schultz), Cardinals (vs. Cole Kmet) and Giants (vs. Dallas Goedert) are some other teams that have been tough against opposing tight ends.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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