Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 14

Ryan McDowell

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 13 QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
QB1Geno Smith, SEA29.96
QB2Brock Purdy, SF29.46
QB3Dak Prescott, DAL 28.26
QB4Jake Browning, CIN26.66
QB5Trevor Lawrence, JAX25.12
QB6Jalen Hurts, PHI23.92
QB7Jordan Love, GB23.68
QB8Matthew Stafford, LAR22.96
QB9Tua Tagovailoa, MIA19.20
QB10Sam Howell, WAS19.18
QB11Gardner Minshew, IND18.68
QB12Jared Goff, DET16.32

Geno Smith and Dak Prescott got Week Thirteen started with a bang last Thursday as they both produced more than 28 fantasy points in the high-scoring affair. For Smith, it was easily his best game of a disappointing season. The final game of the week was just as exciting as the Bengals outlasted the Jaguars. Jake Browning produced the best game of his young career while Trevor Lawrence posted big numbers before suffering an ankle injury that could keep him out for multiple weeks.

Season-Long QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
QB1Josh Allen, BUF286.76
QB2Jalen Hurts, PHI282.80
QB3Dak Prescott, DAL254.76
QB4CJ Stroud, HOU238.90
QB5Sam Howell, WAS236.94
QB6Justin Herbert, LAC232.32
QB7Brock Purdy, SF228.50
QB8Patrick Mahomes, KC222.18
QB9Lamar Jackson, BAL222.12
QB10Jordan Love, GB221.74
QB11Tua Tagovailoa, MIA210.28
QB12Jared Goff, DET207.62

With yet another QB1 performance, Commanders signal-caller Sam Howell is now a top-five fantasy scorer on the season and only Jalen Hurts has accrued more QB1 games. Justin Herbert struggled in the unwatched game against the Patriots, causing him to fall a pair of spots to the QB6. Tua Tagovailoa is back among the QB1 group, replacing Josh Dobbs.

 

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 GamesPlayers
11Jalen Hurts
10Sam Howell
9Josh Allen
8Justin Herbert
7CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy
6Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
11WAS
10
9
8JAX
7CHI, PHI
6ARI, CIN, DET, HOU, LAC, NO, TB, TEN
5ATL, BUF, DAL, IND, LV, MIA
4CLE, DEN, GB, LAR, MIN, NYG, SEA, SF
3KC, NE, NYJ
2CAR, PIT
1BAL

The Commanders have opened a sizable lead over other teams when it comes to QB1 games allowed. Unfortunately for fantasy players, Washington has the week off, so let’s find other teams to target. The Jaguars, Bears, and Eagles are next in line, giving up at least seven top-twelve fantasy performances on the season. The Jags face the Browns, and presumably, veteran Joe Flacco, who could be in line to produce his second-straight impressive performance. The Bears give veteran Jared Goff a nice matchup while the Eagles should keep Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense hot.

Other matchups worth chasing this week include the Chargers (vs. Russell Wilson), Buccaneers (vs. Desmond Ridder), and Bengals (vs. Gardner Minshew.)

The Ravens are coming off a bye, leading the way with just one QB1 game allowed on the year. That means a tough test for Rams veteran Matthew Stafford, who has just two QB1 games on the season. The Panthers (vs. Derek Carr?), Steelers (vs. Bailey Zappe), Chiefs (vs. Josh Allen, Patriots (vs. Mitch Trubisky), and Jets (vs. CJ Stroud) are a few other matchups to avoid, when possible. The Browns (vs. CJ Beathard) and 49ers (vs. Geno Smith) are the other two teams allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 13 RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
RB1Joe Mixon, CIN29.70
RB2Alvin Kamara, NO28.90
RB3De’Von Achane, MIA25.30
RB4Derrick Henry, TEN25.00
RB5James Conner, ARI22.50
RB6Chuba Hubbard, CAR22.40
RB7Christian McCaffrey, SF22.30
RB8Isiah Pacheco, KC21.30
RB9Kyren Williams, LAR20.20
RB10Rachaad White, TB19.60
RB11Travis Etienne, JAX17.90
RB12Tony Pollard, DAL17.30

The top six backs of the week each earned their spot by each scoring a pair of rushing touchdowns. Dolphins rookie back De’Von Achane was back on the field in a major role. Achane has at least ten touches in four games this season and he’s been a top-five back in each of those contests.

Season-Long RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
RB1Christian McCaffrey, SF295.10
RB2Raheem Mostert, MIA214.40
RB3Travis Etienne, JAX209.70
RB4Alvin Kamara, NO188.10
RB5Rachaad White, TB182.90
RB6Joe Mixon, CIN178.00
RB7Derrick Henry, TEN176.68
RB8Brian Robinson, WAS176.00
RB9Josh Jacobs, LV174.10
RB10Isiah Pacheco, KC173.80
RB11Tony Pollard, DAL170.50
RB12Kyren Williams, LAR169.70

Christian McCaffrey has the overall RB1 crown locked down, with a gap of over 80 fantasy points over Raheem Mostert. The field saw a major shakeup outside of the top three though. Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, and Kyren Williams all entered the RB1 range, replacing James Cook, D’Andre Swift, and rookies Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Josh Jacobs was the big faller of the week with the Raiders on bye, dropping from RB4 to RB9, while Alvin Kamara is now a top-four back on the year despite an early-season suspension.

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 GamesPlayers
11Christian McCaffrey
10
9
8
7Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara
6Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard
5Raheem Mostert, Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco

Most RB1 Games Allowed

RB1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
16ARI 
15
14CAR, SEA
13NYJ
12DEN, GB, HOU, IND, LAC, LV, WAS
11CHI, NYG
10CIN, NE, PIT
9ATL, BUF, JAX, KC, MIA
8LAR, MIN, NO
7BAL, CLE, DAL, SF, TB
6DET, PHI

The Cardinals have given up a league-high 16 top-24 games to running backs, so I guess they’ve earned the week off. Before we get into some defenses to target this week, let’s take a deeper look at the Broncos. They average a league-worst 29.3 fantasy points allowed to running backs and have given up 12 top-24 fantasy performances, with only four teams surrendering more. We all remember what happened to the Broncos back in Week Three though as the Dolphins hung 70 on them. Remember, that blowout was fueled by Miami’s running game as their backs totaled over 100 fantasy points. That’s right, nearly 30% of the Broncos fantasy points allowed on the season came in that one game. I never like to play the “remove one data point” game, but if ever there was a time to do it, this is it. As I said, the Broncos allow the most fantasy points in the league. With the Miami game removed, their average fantasy points allowed drops to 22.6, ranking them 13th in the league instead of dead last. The moral of this story is we shouldn’t necessarily target the Broncos’ revamped defense at any position.

On to some defenses we should be targeting this week. The Panthers (vs. Alvin Kamara) and Seahawks (vs. Christian McCaffrey) have each allowed 14 top-24 games on the year. You didn’t need another reason to use these two superstar backs but here it is anyway. Other teams that have allowed at least 25 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields include the Raiders (vs. Alexander Mattison) and Colts (vs. Joe Mixon.)

The Lions and Eagles have been tough against the run, each allowing six top-24 fantasy games to enemy ball carriers. This week, that means we should lower expectations for Khalil Herbert (vs. DET) and Tony Pollard (vs. PHI.)

Other teams that have stopped the run include the Falcons (vs. Rachaad White), Cowboys (vs. D’Andre Swift), Dolphins (vs. Derrick Henry), and 49ers (vs. Zach Charbonnet.)

Wide Receivers

Week 13 WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
WR1DK Metcalf, SEA37.40
WR2Deebo Samuel, SF35.80
WR3Nico Collins, HOU34.10
WR4CeeDee Lamb, DAL32.60
WR5Tyreek Hill, MIA32.30
WR6Mike Evans, TB31.62
WR7Keenan Allen, LAC29.20
WR8Christian Watson, GB27.60
WR9Michael Pittman, IND27.50
WR10DeVonta Smith, PHI24.60
WR11Puka Nacua, LAR23.90
WR12AJ Brown, PHI19.40

It’s been a quietly frustrating season for DK Metcalf dynasty managers but the freak athlete finally responded with a monster game on Thursday night, including a trio of touchdown receptions. The Texans lost talented rookie Tank Dell early in their Sunday contest but Nico Collins picked up the slack and enjoyed the best game of his career. Like Metcalf, Christian Watson was another receiver who busted his slump, catching a pair of touchdowns, but then suffering another lower-leg injury.

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troy taormina-usa today sports

Season-Long WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
WR1Tyreek Hill, MIA312.60
WR2Keenan Allen, LAC266.06
WR3CeeDee Lamb, DAL264.60
WR4AJ Brown, PHI239.40
WR5Ja’Marr Chase, CIN233.42
WR6Stefon Diggs, BUF227.90
WR7Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET223.50
WR8Mike Evans, TB222.20
WR9Puka Nacua, LAR208.40
WR10DJ Moore, CHI204.40
WR11Michael Pittman, IND201.90
WR12Nico Collins, HOU194.10

Even the absence of Joe Burrow couldn’t keep Ja’Marr Chase from dominating. His 149-yard performance helped push him up to the WR5 spot on the season. Stefon Diggs (WR4 to WR6) and DJ Moore (WR7 to WR10) each fell slightly as a result of their bye week. Adam Thielen and Davante Adams fell from the WR1 ranks, while Collins joined the group for the first time this year.

Most WR1 Games Allowed

WR1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
20PHI
19
18
17
16
15WAS
14JAX
13
12LAC, TB, TEN
11BUF, CIN, GB, HOU, KC, NE, NYG, SEA
10ARI, BAL, IND, SF
9MIN
8CAR, DAL, DET, LV, MIA, NYJ
7ATL, CHI, CLE, LAR, NO
6PIT
5
4DEN

Week 13 TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
TE1Sam LaPorta, DET29.00
TE2Evan Engram, JAX23.20
TE3Trey McBride, ARI22.90
TE4Jake Ferguson, DAL19.70
TE5Harrison Bryant, CLE15.90
TE6Travis Kelce, KC12.10
TE7George Kittle, SF10.80
TE8Kylen Granson, IND10.40
TE9Brevin Jordan, HOU9.40
TE9 (Tie)Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN9.40
TE11Kyle Pitts, ATL9.10
TE12MyCole Pruitt, ATL9.00

The Eagles have allowed 20 top-24 performances on the year, by far the most in the league. This week, that means they are an obvious target as they are set to face CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and the Dallas offense. Other teams to target this week include the Jaguars (vs. Amari Cooper?), Chargers (vs. Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy), Giants (vs. Watson?/Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed), and Titans (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle.)

The Broncos have allowed only four top-24 games on the season and three of those came in the first month of the season. This matchup could be enough to slow down Chargers veteran Keenan Allen this week. The Steelers (vs. DeVante Parker), Jets (vs. Collins), Browns (vs. Calvin Ridley), and Saints (vs. Adam Thielen) are other teams to avoid this week.

Tight Ends

Season-Long TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
TE1TJ Hockenson, MIN186.60
TE2Travis Kelce, KC183.30
TE3Sam LaPorta, DET171.90
TE4George Kittle, SF153.70
TE5Evan Engram, JAX137.60
TE6Mark Andrews, BAL135.40
TE7Cole Kmet, CHI134.40
TE8Trey McBride, ARI129.00
TE9Jake Ferguson, DAL125.80
TE10David Njoku, CLE113.90
TE11Dalton Schultz, HOU113.50
TE12Dalton Kincaid, BUF113.40

Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride just continue to churn out productive fantasy performances and their respective dynasty value is quickly climbing as a result. LaPorta is already the dynasty TE1 according to our latest ADP and McBride can be considered a top-five tight end as well.

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 GamesPlayers
10TJ Hockenson
9Evan Engram, Travis Kelce
8Sam LaPorta
7Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet, David Njoku, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson
6Dalton Schultz, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride

McBride and Jake Ferguson both climbed into the top-ten fantasy tight ends for the season, while the inactive Dalton duo of Schultz and Kincaid both slid down the ranks.

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
9CIN
8DEN, HOU, NYJ
7ARI, ATL, CHI, LAR, PHI
6BAL, GB, IND, NO, WAS
5JAX, LAC, LV, MIN, PIT
4DET, MIA, SEA, TB
3CAR, KC, NE, NYG, SF
2DAL, TEN
1CLE
0BUF
RankPlayer NameAvg Rank
1Bijan Robinson1
2Jaxon Smith-Njigba2.25
3Jahmyr Gibbs3.13
4Jordan Addison4
5Quentin Johnston5.38
6Zay Flowers5.38
7Devon Achane8.25
8Dalton Kincaid9.75
9Zach Charbonnet10
10Anthony Richardson11.5
11Kendre Miller12.75
12Josh Downs13.88
13Michael Mayer13.88
14Marvin Mims14.88
15Rashee Rice16.13
16Bryce Young17
17Jonathan Mingo17.63
18CJ Stroud18.63
19Roschon Johnson18.63
20Sam LaPorta18.88
21Jalin Hyatt19.88
22Tyjae Spears20.88
23Cedric Tillman23
24Jayden Reed23.13
25Tank Bigsby23.25
26Luke Musgrave25.25
27Chase Brown26.5
28Tank Dell29.5
29Will Levis31
30Luke Schoonmaker31.5
31Israel Abanikanda31.5
32Tucker Kraft33.88
33Zach Evans33.88
34Tyler Scott34.5
35Darnell Washington36.5
36Kayshon Boutte37.13
37Michael Wilson37.5
38Hendon Hooker40
39DeWayne McBride40.13
40Deuce Vaughn41
41Eric Gray41.88
42Brenton Strange42.38
43Evan Hull42.75
44Charlie Jones43
45Sean Tucker43.62
46Dontayvion Wicks44.37
47AT Perry45.5
48Xavier Hutchinson45.5
49Tre Tucker45.5
50Parker Washington45.75
51Puka Nacua45.88
52Trey Palmer47.5
53Justin Shorter48
54Chris Rodriguez48.13
55Kenny McIntosh48.38
56Jake Haener48.5
57Deneric Prince48.5
58Andrei Iosivas48.63
59Keaton Mitchell48.75
60Dorian Thompson-Robinson48.75

The Bengals are the worst in the league when it comes to defending tight ends, allowing a league-high nine TE1 games and giving up 16.4 fantasy points per game. This week, the Bengals face the Colts and Kylen Granson, who is coming off a TE8 week. The Broncos (vs. Gerald Everett), Texans (vs. Tyler Conklin), and Jets (vs. Dalton Schultz) have each been friendly matchups for opposing tight ends, allowing eight TE1 games on the season.

The Bills still don’t have a blemish on the season but it will be an impressive feat if they survive Week Fourteen, when they face Travis Kelce and the Chiefs. The Browns will look to slow down Evan Engram. Other matchups to shy away from include the Titans (vs. Durham Smythe), 49ers (vs. Noah Fant), Giants (vs. Tucker Kraft), and Patriots (vs. Pat Freiermuth.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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ryan mcdowell

Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 14