Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Nine
Welcome! In this series, I try to be short, sharp, and to the point while offering some underrated trends in volume and regression.
At this point in the season, a lot of my research comes to the conclusions we’ve already seen. The hits seem hardly worth noting because I’m trying not to make these articles a forum for self-congratulation. But I do want to notice the things we missed, even if they are now obvious now, because that’s the good stuff that helps us be more accurate over time in the future.
Workloads and roles have, by and large, settled in. We know about as much about what a team “wants” to do with their players as we can before it’s too late. The rookies, of course, still have a significant window before week nine, and then again in week 12, when they are the single common group that can see drastic or just significant changes in their usage and performance.
We try and pair that up with ADP to form some actionable dynasty takeaways every week for teams in different situations (building or contending). But bear in mind a lot of that comes down to your trade tactics and your league.
With that said, let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage.
You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.
ARI: Trey McBride Window
Kyler Murray looks set to take back his job now he is healthy. Meanwhile, Clayton Tune took over the reins in week nine with awful results.
McBride has finally established a multi-week span with significant route share (four games over 10% between weeks six and nine, and over 16% each of the last two weeks). There’s a potential window in time to acquire McBride before he has a more significant game.
ATL: KhaDarel Hodge leads in routes while Drake London misses time, but it’s not exactly as it seems
Hodge held 17.8% of the team’s routes last week, seemingly taking advantage of the loss of London. However, the overall spread of the offense was broader without London as Van Jefferson also took 17.2% and no one stood out the way London was (over London’s 20%.)
There was no clear winner outside of Jonnu Smith who continues to profit from being a decent receiver playing a purely lower aDot role with quarterbacks who prefer, or benefit, from passing the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. Smith looks un-sittable right now.
BAL: Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, Rashod Bateman trends up once again, and Odell Beckham has his best game since 2021
Beckham scored more PPR points than he has since the end of 2021 in week nine, 14.6, earning 21.9% of the targets on 14.7% of the routes (he earned more targets than his route share justifies). Bateman’s target share bounced up after his routes started to elevate last week, however, he was still fourth on the team in route share and he also earned target efficiency (15.6% on 13.5% of routes).
Meanwhile, the undrafted free agent Mitchell showed up in spectacular fashion with 153 rushing yards on nine attempts and one target. He didn’t get a touch inside the red zone, however, and even his explosive plays give him the potential to earn more opportunities moving forward don’t miss that Hill played the most snaps at the position (63%) and had the highest rushing share (31.7%) and the third highest route share on the team (15.9%) as well as 20% of the teams touches inside the 20-yard line (three total rushing attempts).
CAR: Plays Thursday… but
Miles Sanders‘s volume ticked up this week hitting 21% of the rushing attempts and 14% of targets. He finished with 9.1 PPR points as the RB28 which probably didn’t show up on many people’s radars. At the very least it’s concerning for Chuba Hubbard‘s starting role and he could return to his top 24-level volume from weeks one to three.
CHI: Plays Thursday… but
Cole Kmet paid off for us in week nine but my main note this week is that Darnell Mooney might be the biggest argument against Justin Fields. He’s held over 20% of the team’s routes since the week there but has only just shown up back in the top 24 when Tyson Bagent gets the start.
GB: Christian Watson, positive negativity
I don’t have a lot to add to our Green Bay breakdown so far, the teams look like a mess reliant on touchdowns to show up in fantasy. Aaron Jones joining the top 12 again this week was expected as we mentioned, but it’s still always going to be tough to maintain that regularly. He’s an every-week start but we can’t rely on the points as the team continues to split the work more heavily in different matchups.
Romeo Doubs is the lead receiver and despite Dontayvion Wicks’s four targets this week (tied for the team lead with Luke Musgrave) he only ran 10.9% of the team’s routes.
Christian Watson had his fourth straight week over 18% of the team’s routes, level with Doubs, but, of course, that’s in a roll that’s harder to pay off when you don’t have the quarterback able to exploit it.
HOU: Tank Dell bounces back in week nine, as hoped, and Devin Singletary takes the lead with Dameon Pierce out
Singletary played on 75% of the team’s snaps and had 67% of the team’s rushing attempts (13 total) and an average target share of 5% (2 targets.) He could be startable moving forward since the team keeps moving the ball well.
Dell bounced back from the matchup this week in spectacular fashion with 29.6 PPR points bringing his PPG up to 14.3 (WR20) making him one of the four very attractive dynasty assets at the position in this year’s rookie class.
IND: Josh Downs could miss this week
Losing good players hurts the other players on the team, but it’s a good time to remember, once again, that Michael Pittman has been the lead receiver for this team all season, with a higher route share. There’s also always the potential he could see even more dominance in the red zone with Downs (9% of the red zone touches) missing.
LV: Buy Michael Mayer
Sad to have missed out on Sam LaPorta in the rookie draft? Disappointed you didn’t trade for Dalton Kincaid before he started scoring points? Upset you dropped Trey McBride before week eight? Not to worry, Michael Mayer is still around.
His route percentage has been steadily increasing through the last four weeks and he now has a very interesting share of the offense from a dynasty perspective (13.2% this season, 15.6% average since week six).
Just don’t send a first-round pick and it should be a good trade.
MIN: Joshua Dobbs, good enough
The main concern of losing Kirk Cousins, from a fantasy perspective, is volume. While the team still passed 36 times in week nine, they also only passed on 52% of their team attempts (the lowest passing rate for the season). This could be a result of Dobbs having to cram learning a condensed version of the offense into a single week, but for now, we should probably expect that volume is still unlikely to be maintained.
Having said that, Dobbs is certainly making a case for himself as a great replacement this season and has done more than enough (though their PACR, air yard conversion ratio, was also a seasonal low for Minnesota) for us to hope the top end of the depth chart can still be good in dynasty.
The NFL outcome is significantly reduced, I’d have to say, though I’m rooting for the little backup who could, and in fantasy, the points are very much still available.
NE: Rhamondre Stevenson should keep it rolling in week ten
Stevenson had 62% of his team’s rushing attempts in week nine and 14% of the targets (12% this season.) While New England can and will shift its player usage by matchup, Stevenson should keep it rolling this week against Indianapolis (ranked 27th overall in aFPA against running backs according to 4for4.com).
His touchdown rate is getting close to average, 200 YDTD versus a 150 average, but he’s still an easy start in week ten in most situations.
NO: The Saints have their best passing game of the season with… Taysom Hill
In week nine the team converted 68% of their air yards into receiving yards (PACR) while passing the ball 35 times in a win against Chicago. That’s their highest PACR this season. Taysom Hill finished as the seventh-highest-scoring player at the quarterback position.
This is all good for Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. Predicting Hill to keep being good feels questionable based on one game, but it’s not impossible either. On balance, it’s also significant that Chicago has been an above-average matchup for both wide receivers and quarterbacks this year (ranking 27th against the positions in aFPA).
In week ten, Hill, Olave, and Alvin Kamara are all top 12 starts at their positions according to projections.
NYG: Daniel Jones left the game and likely the season with a torn ACL
It was not the return anyone hoped for Jones. Right now, we’re left hoping he can get healthy.
Wan’Dale Robinson continues to be a slow burn but managed to finish as the WR18 in week nine on five targets for 35 yards and a late touchdown. He’s a deeper value who we can only hope gets some more consistent passing play to show his worth in dynasty.
PIT: Najee Harris inspired to finish back in the top 12 by Diontae Johnson?
I mean, that’s probably not a legitimate connection to draw, but I liked the sound of it.
Despite having the lion’s share of the rushing work (and 25% of the team touches inside the 20-yard line) because of the team’s inability to get into the red zone this year. Harris is a top-30 running back in volume. The team has only had 31 touches in that area of the field in 2023 (ranked dead last).
Johnson, George Pickens, and Harris are all valuable players, but this offense is going to keep being terrible and hard to start on a week-to-week basis.
SEA: Be first, be fast, be right but be careful too
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the consensus top-ranked wide receiver in this year’s rookie draft. We’ve been tracking his progress carefully and have seen hope. However, dynasty is a simple game, and his 8 PPG is bad, and he should (should) be the fifth most valuable player at the position from this year’s rookie draft.
Don’t get it twisted, this isn’t saying anything about his potential as a player, but we should make excuses for players carefully in dynasty only rarely, and I wouldn’t trade him straight up for any of the top four payers from his same draft class without something else in the trade.
Value is value and 8 PPG in a rookie season is a consistently bad sign for a player’s outlook.
Having said that, if he is valued this way (as he should be by this August) he might make an interesting target for competitive rosters.
Week ten brings a positive receiving matchup for the Seahawks so, whatever direction you want to move, be sure to take a likely good game from some of the players this week into account.
TB: Three weeks in the top 12 for Rachaad White and his touchdowns are almost normalized
White’s touchdown rate is now 213 yards per touchdown, which is getting close to within the range of expectation. His volume is still in the top 14 at his position, so keep starting him. However, some of the ceiling we’ve seen lately (like being RB1 in week nine) is likely above his average for the rest of the season.
TEN: Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry are still both top-12 running backs
So is Christian McCaffrey, but we all remembered that when it came to ADP this off-season. I just thought I’d point out that the RB8 in PPR points (the RB12 in PPG) is in his eighth career year at 29 years old.
We should all probably say that more in dynasty.
WAS: Jahan Dotson up to 120 yards per touchdown, due to regress
Romeo Doubs and Dotson are both second-year players. Dotson finished as the WR12 and WR9 the last two weeks. But Doubs has 11.8 PPG versus Dotson’s 9.8 PPG.
That’s about all I have for you right now. But let me know what you think and feel free to look through my data to make your observations.
Until next week, good luck, and have fun.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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