Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Nine

Welcome! In this series, I try to be short, sharp, and to the point while offering some underrated trends in volume and regression.

At this point in the season, a lot of my research comes to the conclusions we’ve already seen. The hits seem hardly worth noting because I’m trying not to make these articles a forum for self-congratulation. But I do want to notice the things we missed, even if they are now obvious now, because that’s the good stuff that helps us be more accurate over time in the future.

Workloads and roles have, by and large, settled in. We know about as much about what a team “wants” to do with their players as we can before it’s too late. The rookies, of course, still have a significant window before week nine, and then again in week 12, when they are the single common group that can see drastic or just significant changes in their usage and performance.

We try and pair that up with ADP to form some actionable dynasty takeaways every week for teams in different situations (building or contending). But bear in mind a lot of that comes down to your trade tactics and your league.

With that said, let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage.

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: Trey McBride Window

Kyler Murray looks set to take back his job now he is healthy. Meanwhile, Clayton Tune took over the reins in week nine with awful results.

McBride has finally established a multi-week span with significant route share (four games over 10% between weeks six and nine, and over 16% each of the last two weeks). There’s a potential window in time to acquire McBride before he has a more significant game.

ATL: KhaDarel Hodge leads in routes while Drake London misses time, but it’s not exactly as it seems