2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Movement in Superflex Startups
It’s the time of year when everyone seems to be focused on rookies and rookie drafts, so I thought it would be a good time to pivot and go another direction. I wanted to look at mock draft data from February, before we had rookie landing spots or combine numbers, and compare that against the most recent mock draft data from May. I wanted to see how the rookies’ ADP was moving among the veterans and how the veterans’ ADP was being impacted by the rookies. There were a few surprises and a few predictable movers as well, so let’s take a look at who’s ADP has fluctuated the most over the last three months.
Rookies Movin’ Up
Not surprisingly, JJ McCarthy was a big mover. If you can recall, back in February, there were a lot of detractors, and we still weren’t 100% sure McCarthy was even going to declare for the NFL draft. The hype train started building, and in the end, we saw McCarthy wind up as a top-ten pick, and this was reflected in his ADP. He was 55th overall in February as QB23; now he is 37th overall as QB19. I’m a biased McCarthy fan, but that seems low to me. Even if you don’t believe in the talent, he’s got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones to throw to. You could argue he’s got the most well-rounded options among all the rookie quarterbacks.
I didn’t get the feeling that the dynasty community was as high on Jonathon Brooks after landing with the Panthers, but it looks like I was wrong. Brooks shot up from 103rd to 59th overall and from RB20 to RB10. Fellow running back Trey Benson saw a similar rise, moving from 135th to 89th overall, while his position ADP halved from RB35 to RB17.
Two of the most significant risers in the entire class were both wide receivers. Ladd McConkey is now WR26 and 72nd overall after sitting at WR50 and 122nd overall in February. Considering the Chargers’ depth chart, I expect McConkey to sneak into the top 24 among receivers soon. The other big mover was Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall was a bit of an afterthought three months ago as the 207th pick and 82nd receiver. Now, with first-round draft capital behind him, Pearsall has climbed up to WR47 and 111th overall. I find it a bit odd that he is a fringe WR4/WR5, considering the draft capital he received, and I am very curious to see where he will be a year from now, assuming Brandon Aiyuk will move on in free agency.
Rookies Movin’ Down
Early in the process, Troy Franklin had many fans. After a so-so combine performance and an unexpected fall in the NFL draft, Franklin experienced a significant fall in ADP. High hopes had Franklin selected as WR38, 93rd overall in February, but now he is WR67 and 170th overall. Sheesh.
Running back Braelon Allen saw a significant fall. Originally RB28 and 118th overall, landing behind Breece Hall as a fourth-round compensatory pick, he rightfully plummeted to RB61 and 203rd overall. That is brutal, but it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Bucky Irving saw a fall, too, but his demise was likely the result of less-than-expected measurables at the combine. Drafted 140th overall in February as an RB3 at RB36, Irving is now more appropriately priced as an RB5, currently coming off the board as RB51, with the 171st pick in drafts.
Fellow RB Will Shipley saw a bit of a fall, too. Shipley was 176th overall and is now 218th, and among backs, he moved from 51st to 67th. Unlike Allen and Irving, I think we’re wrong on Shipley. He can easily be the Eagles’ RB2 on opening day and has a similar skill set that we’ve seen from other successful backs in the Eagles’ system before. He’s probably going to be better than Kenneth Gainwell. And if the new Eagles’ lead back Saquon Barkley goes down with an injury, Shipley could realistically get a handful of starts in 2024 for one of the more fantasy-friendly offenses in the league.
Rising Veterans
I was initially surprised to see very few veterans make significant moves up the boards. In hindsight, I guess I should not have been too shocked. As rookie fever sweeps the landscape and rookie ADPs get pushed to the upper limits, veterans must slide down the board by default. That said, we did see a few veterans who managed to push through and see their ADP climb.
Diontae Johnson was still with the Steelers in February, and the prospect of another season with Kenny Pickett at QB was not appealing to dynasty owners. He was WR41 and was being selected 99th overall. I’m a big Johnson supporter and thought he was grossly underpriced. He eventually was traded to the Carolina Panthers and is clearly their WR1 for the 2024 season. I don’t know if Bryce Young is an upgrade at quarterback or if Johnson will get more targets playing alongside Adam Thielen and Xavier Legette than he would have playing alongside George Pickens. Still, it looks like everyone else thinks those things are true. As of May’s mocks, Johnson is now 86th overall as WR36. It’s not a giant leap, but he’s moved up more than a full round.
Another player who will see a change in scenery in 2024 and seems to be getting a bump in his ADP as a result is D’Andre Swift. While still thought of as an Eagle in February, Swift had an ADP of 108th as the RB22. After signing with the Bears, he is now RB16 and 88th overall. Looking at what else the Bears did this off-season, I find the upward move to be a bit of a head-scratcher. As a whole, with the addition of Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, and Swift, the Bears should have a much more potent offense. However, with DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson, and Khalil Herbert already in place, this team got really crowded really fast. There’s only one football to go around, and I can’t see anyone on this team living up to their ADP unless the Bears shock the world and end up as an all-time top-ten-scoring offense.
Falling Veterans
Probably the least shocking faller is former Bear Justin Fields. At the time of the February mocks, some people still believed the Bears might hold Fields and either trade or go another direction with the first overall pick. As we all know now, the Bears selected Caleb Williams with the first overall pick, and Fields was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. When people still thought Fields might be a starting quarterback in Chicago, he was still being drafted 17th overall, still a QB1 as the 12th quarterback off the board. Now, as he’s backing up fellow new arrival in the Steel City, Russell Wilson, he has fallen off the radar of dynasty managers. Fields is now 120th overall in drafts, and in a league with 32 starting quarterbacks, he is QB32- somehow ahead of Daniel Jones.
A small dropoff would have been understandable, but I cannot explain this one. Jordan Addison went from 48th overall as WR18 to 74th overall and WR27. I agree that, as of now, going from Kirk Cousins to JJ McCarthy seems like a small downgrade on paper, but certainly not enough to drop more than two full rounds. It might be a perfect time to trade for Addison.
On the other hand, a player who has seen a completely understandable fall is the Chiefs’ Rashee Rice. Rice has had an exciting off-season; with multiple legal issues, there was never a dull moment. Before all the fun started, Rice’s ADP got as high as 59th overall, with an NFL playoff performance that saw him climb to WR23. Anticipating a lengthy suspension from one (or both) of his incidents, it looks like drafters have let it affect his ADP, as he has fallen to WR40, 93rd overall. I think it’s a bit of an overreaction and I would attempt to buy him where I could. The NFL doesn’t typically make disciplinary decisions until everything plays out on the legal side of things first, so I suspect Rice will play all of 2024 and might not miss any time until 2025.
A year ago, Michael Mayer was the top tight end prospect in the NFL draft. As the season concluded, he was TE15, 136th overall. Those seemed like fair slots for him after a 27-catch, 304-yard, two-touchdown rookie campaign. Then, the Raiders went back-to-back drafts, selecting the top tight end in the class and selecting this year’s top option in Brock Bowers. This move sunk Mayer in the eyes of dynasty owners. Mayer is now TE29, 214 overall – nearly an 18th-round pick; that’s probably not where dynasty managers expected him to be after he was a common pick at the 1-2 turn in rookie drafts only a year ago.
I wasn’t expecting to discover some of the results I did while researching this article. I hope you learned some things and found a few actionable tidbits of information as well. If nothing else, I was able to find a few buy-low targets that I hadn’t even realized had slipped in the eyes of the dynasty community. On the other hand, I discovered a couple of players I might try to sell, as I can’t fully explain their jump in ADP. As Albert Einstein said, “If you want to know your future, look at the past.” I like to look at older ADP data, compare it to where we are now, and use that to predict the trends on where players are headed. It has been a valuable tool for me, and I hope it becomes useful for you, too.
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