2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.03
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, members of DLF use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.03
The Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU
How much do you like a good gamble? When he’s on and facing favorable conditions, there is no one more electric than Daniels, evidenced by a 2023 season that saw him produce 90 plays of 20-plus yards on the way to a Heisman Trophy honor. When he’s off or the deck is stacked against him, he’s as liable as anyone to put his team and himself in danger.
Daniels’ positives begin with his athleticism, which is legitimately on the same level as the likes of Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields — the cream of the crop. Further, years of progression have produced a legitimate NFL arm, one that terrorized SEC defenses when paired with impending first-round picks Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas last season. He can kill defenses on the ground and through the air, he has the confidence to do so, and a proven track record of steady year-to-year improvement.
Unfortunately, drafting Daniels does not at all come without risks. Most notably, and fairly uniquely to him, Daniels is incredibly susceptible to damage from opposing defenders. He’s remarkably slim for a first-round QB prospect, and he has little to no intuition for self-preservation; you could make a highlight reel of cartoonishly big hits he’s absorbed in the 2023 season alone. He also has further polish to add to his passing game, particularly in the processing department, where he struggles throwing beyond his first read and is far too eager to tuck the ball and run when things go off-schedule. His pressure-response tendencies are a sight to behold. Daniels’ aforementioned confidence overlaps into recklessness reasonably frequently across his tape, and there’s reason to believe he’ll struggle heavily to adjust as his advantage in athleticism and receiving targets shrinks significantly in his move on to the league.
Overall, the ceiling for Daniels is high, but there are legitimate reasons to doubt his ability to hold down a starting job long-term. We’ll see where each of the top four quarterbacks settle, but today, he looks near neck-and-neck with Drake Maye in draft circles. Maye doesn’t offer the same rushing upside, though he perhaps makes up for that with a higher floor and Justin Herbert-esque passing upside. Maye gets my vote at this pick for that reason, but I cannot blame you at all if you want to shoot for a Lamar Jackson level of productive upside. And if one of those guys is off the board here, that probably means Marvin Harrison Jr has slipped down to you — I would advise you to take the generational receiving talent in that case.
Trade Value
- 1.03 for Jahmyr Gibbs
- 1.03 for Travis Etienne
- 1.03 for Brandon Aiyuk and George Pickens
- Drake Maye
- Marvin Harrison Jr
- Malik Nabers
- Rome Odunze
- Malik Nabers
- Rome Odunze
- Brock Bowers
Rookie Selection 2.03
The Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
Mitchell started his career as a bit player in a low-volume passing offense, and understandably so, given his freshman and sophomore seasons at Georgia aligned with the team’s back-to-back national championships. He wasn’t always a mainstay, but he certainly wasn’t a garbage-time stat padder: Four of his seven touchdowns at Georgia came in playoff games; two of those represented their respective games’ go-ahead, decisive scores. In 2023, he transferred to Texas and enjoyed a respectably productive role in the Longhorn offense, particularly when considering he was the newcomer to a receiving corps that included two incumbent future first or second-round picks in Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Throughout his career, he flashed head-turning tools with above-average size, legitimate athletic juice, and a handful of big-time contested catches (often in big moments). He had the opportunity to legitimize his upside case at the Combine, and boy did he deliver.
Much has been made recently about Mitchell’s personality as it relates to his diabetic condition, but I don’t see this private matter worthy of speculation, and I can’t see a competent NFL team allowing this condition to become a major issue anyway. Mitchell enters the league with valuable tools that you can’t coach or develop — height, speed, and tested explosion. He’ll need to develop his game and gain some more strength, but there’s a lot of value for him to provide as an X receiver and option 1 or 2 in a passing game if he does so.
Former teammate Ladd McConkey is one alternative at receiver if you’d like a little more certainty in what you’re getting. At quarterback, Bo Nix or Michael Penix could be options to add unspectacular depth. Depending on how the draft shakes out, you may also look to one of the draft’s top running backs, primarily Jonathon Brooks or Trey Benson.
- 2.03 for Stefon Diggs
- 2.03 for Tank Dell
- 2.03 for Marquise Brown
- Jonathon Brooks
- Trey Benson
- Bo Nix
- Ladd McConkey
Rookie Selection 3.03
The Pick: Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky
Corley is rough around the edges as a receiver, but he is fearsome with the ball in his hands. While acknowledging his upside may not be at this player’s level, Corley has gained many comparisons to Deebo Samuel during the draft process. (A fair but less ambitious comparison could be Amari Rodgers.) There’s concern that he may not fit in neatly to a rigid, standardized receiving role, but a creative offensive coordinator should be able to find ways to get him in space in favorable conditions. The upside is relatively high considering that most of his on-field NFL value comes in giving him direct opportunities to produce, but the floor may be lower if he’s not polished enough to see significant snap counts.
If Corley isn’t your preferred type of receiver, hopefully either Ricky Pearsall or Ja’Lynn Polk will still be available. Both receivers fit into a much more traditional role, and they do so well. Ja’Tavion Sanders may also be around as an upside play at tight end, while a running back like MarShawn Lloyd could be an interesting depth play, pending landing spot considerations. Unfortunately, the projected quality of receiving options drops off noticeably after the three aforementioned receivers.
- 3.03 for Tucker Kraft (TE premium)
- 3.03 for Jonathan Mingo
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
- Ricky Pearsall
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Ja’Tavion Sanders
- Devontez Walker
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Audric Estime
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Surprise Undrafted Players in the 2024 Class - May 2, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.03 - April 21, 2024
- Devy Fantasy Football: Top Five Quarterbacks - August 22, 2022
