John Arrington: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained

Earlier this year, we introduced a new series, called Dynasty Rankings Explained, where DLF rankers not only explained their dynasty fantasy football rankings, and included a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you could see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. Now that we are well past the NFL Draft and looking forward to the NFL Season starting, we decided to bring it back, this time focusing on our dynasty rookie rankings.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is than the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 48 dynasty rookies in a Superflex, PPR format. For a closer look at all our rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings and catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY ROOKIE RANKINGS: JOHN ARRINGTON

Over the past few years, dynasty players have had a slew of information at their disposal (shoutout DLF). All of that information has created smarter dynasty players, making it more and more difficult to gain advantages in dynasty leagues, each season. One area where I still believe it’s possible to gain an advantage is in dynasty rookie drafts. Years ago, NFL draft capital was believed to be the holy grail for rookie analysis. The obvious goal for dynasty analysts became beating draft capital, and many sought ways of doing so. More recently, with a large influx of newer analysts, it seems that the focus for many has turned back to draft capital being king. 

My goal as an analyst has always been to beat draft capital, and that is what I focus on when making my rookie rankings. That’s not to say that I don’t utilize where a player was drafted, rather I like to look at it as a piece of the puzzle. There are four main components that determine how a rookie gets ranked in my process.  First, I look at college production, but I don’t mean raw numbers. Two players ending up with 1,000 yards receiving does not mean they are equal, so I dive into the most critical metrics to differentiate and then break them into tiers. Next, I add in a player’s athleticism. While not a large part of the final score, I look for outliers in either direction, to see if a player should move up or down. After adding in athleticism, I adjust the players in their respective tiers, based on draft capital. I generally don’t move a player up or down a tier based on where they were drafted, but there are some extreme examples that we’ll get into once we dive into the ranks. Finally, I make small adjustments based on landing spots. I am a firm believer that talent is greater than situation, but if two players are close in the final score, I’m willing to use some context to adjust the ranks.

Rookies 1 - 12

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
1	1	0	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	21
2	6	4	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	21
3	4	1	CJ Stroud	QB	HOU	21
4	3	-1	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	21
5	5	0	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	21
6	7	1	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	21
7	9	2	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	22
8	8	0	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	21
9	13	4	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	22
10	14	4	Kendre Miller	RB	NO	21
11	2	-9	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	21
12	11	-1	Devon Achane	RB	MIA	21

It doesn’t take long for us to see some discrepancy between my ranks and the consensus. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs end up in a tier of their own, for me. They both have elite levels of college production, athleticism, and draft capital, which all lead to a fantastic hit rate. I have Stroud and Young essentially tied in my rankings, so I won’t make much of an argument for one over the other. Both QBs fall into my second tier for the quarterback position, so I’m fine taking the tier-one running backs first.

Smith-Njigba and Addison both fall in line with consensus, but I end up a little ahead of consensus on Zay Flowers. With Flowers, we have a highly productive player, elite athleticism, and first-round draft capital. The only concern is the landing spot in Baltimore, but it’s not enough of a concern to lower him in the ranks.

Charbonnet and Miller are the only two RBs that fall into the next tier for me, so it’s easy to rank them as the next players. People are concerned about the landing spot for both, while completely skipping over the talent and draft capital parts. I feel like both players will earn roles quickly, and have league-winning upside, if there were an injury to the incumbent running back from their respective teams. I love the speed and burst that Achane brings, but I end up being slightly lower just because of the team being linked to Dalvin Cook, and his outlier size.

Now we get to the big one, Anthony Richardson. I believe that dynasty managers have gotten out over their skis with the athleticism and draft capital, in this instance. Based on college production, Richardson is a tier-four quarterback and my QB4 pre-draft. After adding in his elite athleticism and draft capital, he leaps a full tier, but I can’t get behind him being drafted before the late first round. We’ve seen plenty of uber-athletic players get drafted early, and it hasn’t worked out well for most. While not impossible, the odds of Richardson becoming a top-tier QB are very low. In the event that he does take that giant leap, I still expect it would take multiple seasons to come to fruition. My educated guess is that you will be able to trade for Richardson for a cheaper price, next offseason.

Rookies 13 - 24

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
13	16	3	Josh Downs	WR	IND	21
14	12	-2	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	23
15	18	3	Marvin Mims	WR	DEN	21
16	15	-1	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	22
17	21	4	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	22
18	27	9	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	23
19	23	4	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	21
20	20	0	Hendon Hooker	QB	DET	25
21	22	1	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	22
22	31	9	Israel Abanikanda	RB	NYJ	20
23	10	-13	Will Levis	QB	TEN	24
24	24	0	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	22

What a fitting start to the second round of players, with Josh Downs. Downs is my WR3 in the class, but not substantially higher than WR4-6. Add in the context of how I feel about Richardson, and Downs drops to WR5. I wouldn’t argue much with you if you wanted to drop him to WR6, but I still believe in Downs as a talent so I don’t want to drop him too far. Mims has every opportunity to become the WR2 for the Broncos, and could possibly become the WR1 if the team moves on from Jeudy after this season.

Based on the full criteria, Kincaid, Mayer, and LaPorta all end up ranked very close to each other, in my rankings. I moved Kincaid up a little bit because I believe he can eventually become the second receiving option for Josh Allen and I worry a little bit about Mayer’s QB situation. LaPorta is the last tight end before a tier drop, so I want to make sure I get him in drafts as well.

Jayden Reed was underrated by most throughout the draft process until he received top-50 draft capital, but he still seems to be ranked too low by consensus. Reed was my WR5 pre-draft and ultimately ended up as my WR6 in the class. Jalin Hyatt has been described as a one-trick pony by many analysts, and that’s probably true, but I think he’s elite at that one trick. Not directly comping the players by any means, but Hyatt reminds me of a poor man’s DK Metcalf. Add in that one of Daniel Jones’ few strengths is his deep ball, and it could be an underrated combo.

Israel Abanikanda gained some steam in the dynasty community, during the pre-draft process. As soon as he got drafted by the Jets, all of that steam seemed to disappear. I understand the desire for a more ambiguous landing spot, but I still believe Abanikanda has the ability to earn a role, early on. Dynasty managers are concerned that Breece Hall may not be 100% to start the season, or that the Jets may try to ease him into the season. If either of those things is true, Abanikanda could easily gain a ton of value immediately. If Hall is fully healthy in week one, Abanikanda would still be one of the most valuable backup RBs in the league.

That brings us to Will Levis. There is very little In Levis’ draft profile that leads me to believe he will hit at the NFL Level. Similar to Anthony Richardson, Levis had poor college production, but has great size and athleticism(not to Richardson’s levels). The main difference is the draft capital. Take poor college production, add in second-round draft capital, and I’m out on that player.

Rookies 25 - 36

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
25	17	-8	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	22
26	30	4	Tank Dell	WR	HOU	23
27	35	8	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	22
28	52	24	AT Perry	WR	NO	23
29	25	-4	Tank Bigsby	RB	JAC	21
30	29	-1	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	23
31	33	2	Zach Evans	RB	LAR	22
32	50	18	Evan Hull	RB	IND	22
33	39	6	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	21
34	19	-15	Jonathan Mingo	WR	CAR	22
35	43	8	Charlie Jones	WR	CIN	24
36	56	20	Trey Palmer	WR	TB	22

This set of players is where we start to see some large swings. I don’t understand Rashee Rice’s consensus rank at all. Did we not just play this same game with Skyy Moore last year? A small school WR lands on the Kansas City Chiefs and gets pushed up the board, regardless of college production and athleticism. At least Moore had consistent production throughout college, but Rice didn’t even surpass 700 receiving yards in a season until his senior year.

I prefer Tucker Kraft to Luke Musgrave, and am hoping for a Mark Andrews-type situation, where he quickly jumped Hayden Hurst, despite being drafted later by the team. Unfortunately, the ambiguous nature of the Packers’ QB situation still makes either of them somewhat risky.

AT Perry and Trey Palmer both enter somewhat ambiguous WR corps. Perry could easily become the WR3 for the Saints, behind only Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. No one else has proven anything besides Rashid Shaheed hitting some big plays as a rookie last year. Michael Thomas has barely seen the field in the past three seasons, so it’s not unbelievable that Perry could be the WR2 before the season ends. Palmer has a more difficult path to relevance, with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Russell Gage all ahead of him, but there have been whispers of possible trades for Godwin or Evans, and the Buccaneers have an easy out in Gage’s contract after the 2023 season.

Evan Hull likely slides into the RB2 position for the Colts, and could even earn a third-down role, with his receiving prowess. After seeing Jonathan Taylor struggle to stay healthy last year, it’s not crazy to think Hull could see the field this season.

That brings us to Jonathan Mingo, another example of an unproductive player being pushed up because of draft capital. Add in a rookie quarterback, and it leads to me being completely out on Mingo, especially at cost.

Rookies 37 - 48

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
37	51	14	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	22
38	26	-12	Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	23
39	36	-3	Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	21
40	48	8	Stetson Bennett	QB	LAR	25
41	44	3	Deuce Vaughn	RB	DAL	21
42	45	3	Eric Gray	RB	NYG	23
43	42	-1	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	21
44	58	14	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	24
45	47	2	Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	23
46	40	-6	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB	CLE	23
47	37	-10	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	23
48	59	11	Elijah Higgins	TE	MIA	22

I don’t have strong opinions about these players in general, or else they would be higher in the ranks. As we get into the fourth round and beyond of rookie drafts, I’m looking for players that have a shot at seeing the field in year one or are injury-away kinds of players.
Dontayvion Wicks enters an ambiguous receiving corp in GB, Stetson Bennett and Aidan O’Connell were fairly productive in college and landed behind QBs that have struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons. Deuce Vaughn and Eric Gray are likely going to slot into the RB2 slot for their respective teams. Elijah Higgins has an opportunity to become the starting TE for Miami, after Mike Gesicki and Hunter Long both left the team this offseason. Cedric Tillman and Michael Wilson got drafted earlier than expected, but don’t stand out as players that are likely to hit any time soon.

Rookie drafts may be the last true advantage that we can gain over other dynasty managers, and that makes each ranking extremely important. Focus on drafting players with complete draft profiles, and you will succeed more often than not. Chasing outliers with high-end rookie draft capital rarely pays off. Many times, even if those players do hit later on, you will have an opportunity to get them cheaper at some point. If your rookie drafts have already happened, there is still plenty of time to take advantage of over and undervalued players via trades. The majority of my research and analysis has focused on college players and NFL rookies, so feel free to reach out to me about these rankings if you have questions about players. If your rookie draft has yet to start, utilize this information and good luck!

John Arrington: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Rankings Explained