Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings
This series explores DLF rankings and ADP to find advantages to use in our dynasty leagues. Last week we finally got to see the NFL Draft with all its landing spots and juicy signal for predicting fantasy success.
Because ADP lags behind (currently April), I took the superflex rankers’ rookie rankings and used them as an insight into how we “should” value rookies. They were updated during and after the draft, and are updated regularly from each ranker, so it should give us a decent understanding.
I’ve also highlighted each rookie draft “round” as if it were a 12-team superflex PPR draft as follows.
So, let’s look at the 2023 rookies, post-draft, compare them to redraft ranks from FantasyPros, and see what we can learn.
You can find DLF Rookie ADP here.
You can find DLF Rookie Rankings here.
Round One
The first round has seen some clarification in the draft, though not a great deal of change. The round starts with Bijan Robinson, that’s the one thing DLF rankers and FantasyPros agree on. From there, dynasty favors the first three quarterbacks drafted in the NFL.
Rankers mostly line up behind Bryce Young as the QB1, with Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud around five startup picks behind but very close to each other.
This seems to be a tier then there is a slight drop to Jaxon Smith-Njigba
After that Jahmyr Gibbs leads another solid tier with Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Quentin Johnson all in the same range.
Everyone else down to the mid-second round are drafted very close together, suggesting a third tier, although Dalton Kincaid seems to occupy a mid-ground between tier two tiers.
The only player redraft doesn’t agree with is a first-round pick, Kendre Miller. FantasyPros has Devin Achane at the end of the first round, as the RB4 of the class.
I’ve faded Zach Charbonnet below Achane and dropped him out the first round because of his landing spot and his congested situation compared to Achane who, in a vacuum, has a much more open depth chart to compete for touches in Miami.
Redraft strongly favors Gibbs, even over the quarterbacks. This is to be expected since running backs do more, on average, in year one. However, even in the dynasty the running back landscape feels uncertain and seems set for major changes. A player with top-12 draft capital – and his production profile – carries added interest in dynasty this year and certainly seems like a better bet for some value increase than in an average rookie draft.
I’m not sure there should be such a big difference between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison. While JSN is the clear WR1 in this class pre-draft, their production profiles were not that far apart, and Addison has much better year-one prospects as the WR2 in Minnesota than JSN does next to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
I can’t get over how positive dynasty and redraft are on Zach Charbonnet. While he could end up the bigger part of a committee – Kenneth Walker is more a “home run hitter” and Charbonnet profiles more as a “between-the-tackles grinder” – I think the effect on fantasy is largely to hold both back. I even prefer Tank Bigsby, who had a similar production profile and is also in a congested landing pot, but his path to targets seems better in Jacksonville.
Dalton Kincaid has the best pure receiving profile in this draft, at the tight end position. He was also selected in the first round, 25th overall. Draft capital, especially the first round, matters at this position.
But it’s notable that the “best” fantasy tight ends… were not drafted in the first round.
I think the separation between Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Michael Mayer is close in terms of their range of outcomes in fantasy. They don’t do a lot in year one, and their value tends to hold steady even in positive rookie seasons. That all adds up to LaPorta and Mayer being heavy targets for me this year.
Round Two
Clear positional trends stop in round two. It’s a “best player available” feel from rookie’s 13th to 24th this year. If anything, there seems to be a wider receiver run in the middle of round two as the pre-draft darlings are drafted, having fallen behind running backs in the late first round.
In redraft there is less expectation for the wide receivers. Both Marvin Mims and Rashee Rice are falling out of round two there. They also (unforgivably to a small wide receiver fan like me) pushed Tank Dell into the fourth round.
Redraft, however, is very interested in Jalin Hyatt and Roschon Johnson, both of which should be on our list to consider this year as a result.
Will Levis is a value in superflex drafts. While I wasn’t enamored pre-draft his draft capital (second round, 33rd overall) and landing spot (Tennessee behind only Ryan Tannehill on a clicking contract with only one-year left) is enough to think a late first, let alone a mid-second, in a rookie draft are solid moves.
The desire to snatch some running backs seems to be reducing some wide receivers to second-round value. As we looked at last week, ADP suggested these running backs were more “of a tier” and there was little separation between them. Whereas Marvin Mims has a very positive profile heading into the draft and Denver felt good about it as well taking him in the second round, 63rd overall.
I also like Josh Downs, a lot. But his draft capital and likely “muted” ceiling in the NFL given his “slot” role in college mean it’s more understandable for most to fade him below the running backs. I won’t but I don’t think it’s a bad idea either.
Round Three and beyond
I want to bring the last few rounds into one section, mainly because there’s not as much that stands out. First, it’s clear only Tank Bigsby and (if my ranks are anything) Jayden Reed are both values in the third round.
Israel Abanikanda and Zach Evans are also ranked significantly higher in redraft inside the third round, likely because of the potential for signal year significance at the running back position versus the longer-term upside of tight end and wide receiver.
Finally, there are two players drafted outside the top 36 rookies in DLF rankings who seem to be favored by FantasyPros, and I happen to like both.
Kayshon Boutte failed the pre-draft process as far as the NFL is concerned, going in the sixth round, 187th overall to New England. However, the flashes of talent in college are still in the minds of those playing only for next year. A few good players, even a few decent targets, could easily see this taxi squad add pay dividends come back off-season.
The same could be said for Sean Tucker. He didn’t fail the pre-draft process as much as he failed concerns about his medical issues, but he was signed as an undrafted free agent to Tampa Bay, a depth chart with Rachaad White, a promising third-rounder from last year’s draft, at its head.
While Tucker’s medical concerns are a concern, he wouldn’t be the first productive college running back to fall out of the draft and still provide dynasty upside including James Robinson in 2020, and Phillip Lindsay in 2018, both of whom finished top 12.
Anyway, that’s about all I have this week. You can check out the full board, as well as sort by position rankings in DLF and FantasyPros rankings, in the following link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10cthl4mn688eBtsOmGwygAB0wwnDKMIZXqVqdQoz5HQ/edit?usp=sharing
But for now, I’d just like to thank you for checking out this article, and I hope to see you again next week when we once again dive into DLF ADP and rankings to find edges for our leagues.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week One - September 14, 2024
- Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings - May 22, 2024
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
