2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: 18-Round 1QB Dynasty Startup Draft
Last week, I conducted a startup draft with all the bells and whistles: superflex, PPR, tight end premium, with the 2023 rookie class included. Be sure to check out the results of last week’s mock if you haven’t already. In this week’s edition of the 2023 Off-Season Mock Draft Series- I’m getting rid of all those options. We’re going old school, single QB, standard scoring, no TEP, and no rookies. I still play in several single QB and standard scoring leagues. I’m not a huge fan of superflex leagues, and I’m not too fond of PPR, either. I prefer .5 PPR or PPFD (point per first down) scoring myself. I also don’t like TEP scoring either; if you want to boost the value of the position, switch your league settings to start two tight ends. I guess I’m a miserable curmudgeon who doesn’t like new things. I once again conducted this mock using DLF’s Mock Draft Simulator Tool and was randomly assigned the third pick; let’s see how things turned out.
Rounds 1 & 2
Right out of the gate, I wasn’t sure what direction to go. I love my early-round running backs, and Jonathan Taylor is 24, while Breece Hall is only 21. If Hall was healthy, I would probably have taken him here. The Colts’ situation is not something I’m looking to jump in on at this point, so I’m kind of forced to look at receivers with my first pick if I don’t like Taylor here, either. With Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase already gone, my top options were AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, or Jaylen Waddle. I like Waddle, but 1.03 seems like a reach, especially with Tyreek Hill still in place ahead of him. Between Lamb and Brown, I prefer the Philly offense to Dallas’, so Brown it is.
Coming back in the second, I had a few options I liked but still wasn’t sure what direction I wanted to go with this draft just yet. If we were playing a pure ageism game, 21-year-old Drake London would be the easy pick, but I am not a London (or Atlanta) fan at all. I suppose a case could be made to draft London with the hopes of flipping him future picks, but this is a mock, not real life. Nick Chubb might be my favorite running back in the NFL, but I don’t love the offense around him in Cleveland or how they’ve used him so far. D’Andre Swift is starting to look like a bust in Motor City, and they brought in David Montgomery to steal work from him. I’m only two picks in, and I feel like my back is against the wall already. So I pinched my nose and went with Josh Jacobs. He’s only 25 and should be a free agent after this season.
Rounds 3 & 4
After the turn, it was back to me in round three. The four selections between my two picks were Chubb, Swift, Kyle Pitts, and Cooper Kupp. Since it’s not PPR scoring, reception volume isn’t significant, so I’ll go with Deebo Samuel. Deebo is a player I’ve always liked, and he has many ways to accumulate yards in the Niners’ offense. Sometimes you grab the guys you like, which I did here.
Round four was my easiest selection so far. The Dallas backfield has been cleared out for Tony Pollard; now I just need to sweat out the draft and see how early the Cowboys draft a running back. Jacobs and Pollard could both move on to new teams in 2024 as bell cow backs, so I like where my fantasy backfield could be to start 2024.
Rounds 5 & 6
I already have two running backs and two receivers, and I’ll keep going back to the well. Running back has thinned out considerably, and I’m already regretting my decision to go with Brown in round one. Brandon Aiyuk has some upside, but I’ve already got Deebo, and I don’t want to double-dip on 49ers at this point in the draft. Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins are attractive options, but they’re 29 and 30, respectively, so I’ll pass. That leaves me with Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson. I’m a giant Diontae Johnson guy, but I probably have too much of him on my rosters already, so I’ll go with McLaurin here.
Typically I don’t start looking at quarterbacks until round seven (or later) in single QB leagues, and I will often be the last team to draft my QB1. However, no position players jumped off the board to me at 6.10. Jahan Dotson would have been interesting, but since I just selected Mclaurin, I’m not looking to double-dip on Commander receivers either. In hindsight, I should have gone with Johnson in the last round, and I could’ve taken Dotson here. But I didn’t, so here we are. In the end, I went with Deshaun Watson. He didn’t show much in his limited action last year, but I’ll take the gamble on a player we have seen finish with top-five upside at his position.
Rounds 7 & 8
I mentioned how I will routinely wait and be the last team to draft my first quarterback in single-QB leagues. However, at the same time, I will also often be the first team to draft my QB2. Although that wasn’t the case here, I double-tapped quarterback at the 6-7 turn and went back-to-back quarterbacks, selecting the 23-year-old Trevor Lawrence in round seven. This duo gives me nice upside at the position, and now I don’t have to entertain the position for the remainder of the draft.
Wrapping up round eight, with no running backs I like, I’m looking at receivers again. JuJu Smith-Schuster in New England and Jakobi Meyers in Las Vegas each seem like better PPR options. So, I went with Kadarius Toney in Kansas City. Talk about an explosive upside pick. Toney is a former first-round pick and is now going into his first full off-season with the Chiefs and Pat Mahomes. I don’t think it’s crazy to think a top-12 season is within his range of outcomes, which you can’t say about any other players at this point in the draft.
Rounds 9 & 10
Looking at my roster, I’ve got two quarterbacks, four receivers, and only two running backs. In a way, I’m forced to draft running backs based on my poor roster construction through eight rounds. I like Isiah Pacheco more than most, but I’m terrified the Chiefs will bring someone in during the draft with much better draft capital than Pacheco’s seventh-round capital. Much like Deebo earlier, I’m going to go with a player I like, so I picked Antonio Gibson. Gibson is still only 24, and I believe he is as talented as any back in the NFL, he’s just stuck with a coach that doesn’t use him to his potential. As much as I like Gibson, I realize his potential shortcomings, and I know he is a weak RB3 for my team.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Gibson as a player, but I don’t love the pick as my RB3 in round nine. But, conversely, I do like my round ten selection of Alexander Mattison as my RB4. The Vikings have done all they could this off-season to indicate they’re moving on from Dalvin Cook while signing Mattison to a two-year, $7 million deal. As a result, Mattison could be the steal of multiple drafts this year.
Rounds 11 & 12
With four running backs rostered, my team feels more balanced now, so I can start looking at tight ends. If you’ve read any of my content for any time now, you’ll already know I’m a big tight end streamer, so I rarely (if ever) sink any draft capital into the position. However, I’m not a fan of any receivers or running backs left here in early round 11, so I will acquire my first tight end. I was torn between Cole Kmet and Dawson Knox. Kmet is 24 but is on a Bears’ offense that added D.J. Moore and will get a healthy Darnell Mooney back this season. Add in Justin Fields‘ penchant for pulling the ball down and running with it, and I went with the 26-year-old Knox in an offense where he has already exhibited a track record of success.
In round 12, I was looking at Adam Thielen or D.J. Chark. With the departure of D.J. Moore, someone needs to catch the ball for whatever rookie signal-caller gets drafted by Carolina first overall. Thielen was a reliable red zone target in Minnesota for years and should be a trusted safety valve for the Panthers’ new quarterback.
Rounds 13 & 14
I wanted to avoid double dipping in the early rounds with 49ers or Commanders, but in these deeper rounds, why not? D.J. Chark was still on the board, and somebody must emerge in Carolina, right? If it ends up being Chark, the 32-year-old Thielen is an easy cut for early-season waivers. And vice versa, if Thielen shows he’s got more in the tank and is getting peppered with targets, Chark can get axed for an early waiver run.
There is nothing, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, nothing left at running back, so I’ll roll the dice on Isaiah Spiller. The soon-to-be-28-year-old Austin Ekeler is under contract for one more season and has already requested a trade. So if they don’t address running back early in the draft, the Chargers will likely kick the tires a bit on Spiller, their 2022 fourth-round pick. I hate it, but there wasn’t anyone with upside left at the position.
Rounds 15 & 16
Daniel Bellinger would have been an easy choice for me in round 15, but the Giants’ acquisition of Darren Waller put a damper on my hopes for Bellinger. Again, looking for upside this late in the draft, Van Jefferson was a player I always liked. Slated to be a starter in the Rams offense this year, the former second-round pick from 2020 looks poised to finally get his chance at a full-time job in the NFL with the departure of Allen Robinson and Odell Beckham Jr. The Rams will probably stink too, so while defenses are trying to cover Cooper Kupp, Jefferson should have decent matchups in garbage time this season as the Rams play catch-up.
In round 16, I’m looking at tight ends again, as I would like to add two more in the next three rounds. Chig Okonkwo is my preference here, but much like Diontae Johnson above, I have too much Okonkwo already, so I’ll pivot to the Buccaneers’ Cade Otton. I liked him as a prospect coming into the league, and he is projected to be Tampa’s opening-day starter at the position in 2023.
Rounds 17 & 18
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” Okonkwo was still there, and I love the guy, so He’s my TE3. Jelani Woods was under consideration, but I’m apprehensive about the offensive situation in Indianapolis.
To wrap up the draft, I had a few players I thought about. Jimmy Garoppolo would have been the pick if I wanted a third quarterback. I rarely carry three QBs in single QB leagues unless I’m stashing a rookie on a taxi squad. So, looking for a potential upside pay here, Jerome Ford seemed to be the play given the rest of my roster. For all the reasons I faded Nick Chubb earlier, I like Ford here. The powers-that-be in Cleveland have rarely leaned heavily on a single back, so with Kareem Hunt out of the picture, last year’s fifth-round pick, Ford seems poised to see a more prominent role in 2023.
My Team
I kind of hate it. We all know that feeling after a draft. Seeing how thin running back got, I wish I had started with Breece Hall and Nick Chubb with my first two picks. I should’ve taken Johnson over McLaurin in round five. That would’ve led to Dotson instead of Watson in round six too. After that, the rest of the draft would’ve all been totally different for me, and I think I would have liked my squad better. But this is why we do mock drafts. See how things shake out, where players fall, how you build your rosters, and what you like and dislike. These are all invaluable tools when it comes time for your actual drafts.
Waiver Options
I’d love Tyler Conklin if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t going to be his quarterback. Jelani Woods is on my radar, and Irv Smith might be interesting in Cincinnati, although I like him significantly more in best-ball leagues. I already mentioned Jimmy Garoppolo, and he is heads and shoulders above the other remaining quarterbacks like Tannehill or Ridder, although I am a little surprised Jordan Love wasn’t picked. Running back and wide receiver are picked clean, though.
Big Picture
I don’t think anything earth-shattering occurred in this mock. I was surprised how thin receiver and running back got without the rookies added into the mix. There were some terrible picks as we neared the end. If I were to do this again, I would wait longer on quarterbacks and tight ends. I wouldn’t address either position until round 14 and finish with three tight ends and two quarterbacks.
We are now less than a week away from the NFL draft. I hope this series has been helpful to you up to this point. I’ll be taking Draft week off since everything will be very fluid at that time, but the series will return the following week with some mocks once we know landing spots and draft capital, so be sure to check back, and thanks for reading!
- Final Rookie Report Card: Running Backs - January 18, 2025
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
