Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman
Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, I’ll cover two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and will generally write about the most prominent performers from that particular week. I’ll discuss how well he’s lived up to expectations at the NFL level and then grade the player in three categories: performance to date, rookie season potential, and long-term upside.
Michael Penix, QB ATL
Week 17 stats: 19 completions on 35 attempts for 223 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception and two carries for 3 rushing yards.
In his second career start, Michael Penix set career highs in attempts, competitions, and yards while tossing his first career touchdown. The team must have the utmost confidence in Penix, as the Falcons are in the midst of a playoff chase and are in the middle of a three-game stretch of must-win games. His best game in week 17 resulted in an overtime loss, and he’ll have to do better to close out the season if the Falcons want to see any postseason action.
Coming out of high school, Penix was not heavily recruited but did receive nine scholarship offers. He elected to attend Indiana University, where he only managed to play 20 games over four seasons, primarily due to injuries. Ahead of the 2022 season, as a redshirt junior, Penix transferred to Washington, where he led the PAC-12 in completions, attempts, and yards while leading the nation in passing yards per game, finishing eighth in Heisman voting. He followed that up with a 2023 senior season where Penix led the nation in attempts, passing yards, and passing yards per game, winning the Maxwell Award and finishing second in Heisman Trophy voting in a season that saw a Penix-led Huskies team lose to Michigan in the National Championship game.
Projected as a potential first-round pick, Penix was eventually selected eighth overall by the Atlanta Falcons. He entered the league as an older rookie at 24 years old. He also brought with him some serious injury concerns after suffering multiple season-ending injuries early in his college career, including two ACL tears in his right knee and two right shoulder injuries. He was always QB5 or QB6 in every mock and typically floated between 12th and 17th overall in superflex rookie mocks. In start-up mocks, I’m a little shocked to see him going as late as he is, currently QB27. Considering he is a rookie and a likely starter for at least the near-term future, it seems a little odd that he is outside of the top 24.
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Performance to Date: C-
We knew Penix would not see much action during his rookie campaign, so I’m not holding the first 16 weeks of the season against him here. But, in the two games he has started, he hasn’t really lit the fantasy world on fire. He’s been QB28 in his two-game starting stretch. That’s not even good enough to get into your superflex spot. Among rookies, he was 15th in scoring over the last two weeks, so even relative to his peers, he hasn’t been impressive. Fortunately, it is highly unlikely anyone in the fantasy playoffs had to turn to him in either of these two games anyway.
Rookie Season Potential: C+
With one game left, Penix gets to close out the season against the Panthers. Fortunately, the Panthers allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, 20.7. Penix has averaged 14.175, so even if we split the difference, Penix is only looking at a sub-18-point performance. It’s not great for fantasy, but you couldn’t ask for a better opportunity for a rookie signal-caller to gain some momentum heading into his first full NFL off-season or his first possible playoff start.
Long-Term Upside: B+
Penix was a highly thought-of prospect coming into the league. Now that the keys to the franchise have officially been handed over to him, he’s going to be given a long leash over the next three or four seasons to prove he’s the QB of the future in Atlanta and should be a useful option in superflex leagues for the next handful of seasons.
Keon Coleman, WR BUF
Week 17 stats: Three receptions on seven targets for 27 yards and a touchdown.
Week 17 saw Coleman match his career-high with seven targets. He was only able to pull in three of them, but one was good for a touchdown in a blowout victory over the hapless Jets. Coleman played 63 snaps – tied for his career-high and was on the field for 90% of the team snaps, missing his career-high by only 1%.
A heavily recruited prospect coming out of Opelousas, Louisiana, Coleman received 44 scholarship offers. Initially recruited to Michigan State to play both football and basketball, Coleman transferred to Florida State for his junior season, where he led the ACC in touchdowns with 11 before declaring for the NFL draft. In a draft class stacked at receiver, after we saw seven first-round receivers, Coleman was the eighth receiver off the board as the first pick of the second round.
In rookie mocks, Coleman was a bit of a faller – and it wasn’t necessarily reflective of him as a player or his combine performance or draft capital – rather as a result of other players leapfrogging him because of their outstanding performances. In February’s initial mocks, he was WR6 and eighth overall – even going as high as fifth overall in one mock. Over the next couple of months, Coleman fell to WR9 and 14th overall before finally settling in as WR7, as the 10th overall selection.
Performance to Date: D+
When we saw the Bills’ depth chart heading into 2024, we knew the wide receiver position would have to be addressed via the draft, free agency, or both. When the Bills traded up to kick off day two of the NFL draft and select Coleman with the 33rd overall pick, everyone had lofty expectations for Coleman playing alongside Josh Allen. Rookie receivers don’t always hit the ground running, and Coleman has been a bit of a disappointment as a fantasy asset. Among rookies, he is 19th in scoring and is currently WR74. At the start of the season, I would have to assume most dynasty managers thought his floor was closer to top-48, or higher. Even on a per-game basis, Coleman hasn’t been much better, as he is WR61 when we take out his four missed games. He’s only topped 15 points twice and registered double digits four times, not at all what we were hoping for.
Rookie Season Potential: D
Unless the Bills blow out the Patriots in week 18 (which is certainly within the realm of possibilities), Coleman is unlikely to get the snaps or targets needed to put up an outlier game to close the season. The most likely outcome is something in the neighborhood of his average 8.6 fantasy points.
Long-Term Upside: B-
Coleman had the talent to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft and nearly was as the 33rd overall pick. Despite his disappointing rookie season, he’ll have a playoff run and an entire NFL off-season to get his legs beneath him heading into his sophomore season. The talent is still there, and he has as much upside as anyone in this rookie crop of receivers not named Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, or Brian Thomas Jr. Should Coleman develop a little more chemistry with Josh Allen going forward, he could be a top-24 option for several seasons.
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
