Weekly Matchups: Three Waiver Wire Pickups To Start

Ryan McDowell

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

To be a consistently successful dynasty manager, you have to play the waiver wire to perfection. Identifying which players to target at specific points in the season can be a challenge. The goal should be finding players that can become fantasy starters, if even for just short stretches of time. This week, the dynasty waiver wire is particularly interesting due to recent trades and injuries. Here are some players that could go from waiver wire to fantasy starters in Week Eight.

Jameis Winston, QB CLE

The Browns lost starting quarterback Deshaun Watson last week to an Achilles injury that will end his season. Although he was the emergency QB3 last week, veteran and fantasy player favorite Jameis Winston has been named the starter for Week Eight. This could be a weekly guessing game or Winston could be the man going forward. We’ve certainly seen Winston produce some massive fantasy performances thanks to his gunslinger mentality and short memory. In Week Eight, the Browns face off with division-foe Baltimore. This has not been the Ravens’ defense of old. This year’s version has allowed five QB1 performances through seven weeks. The Ravens have given up fantasy finishes of QB12 (Patrick Mahomes), QB2 (Dak Prescott), QB2 (Joe Burrow), QB9 (Jayden Daniels), and QB2 (Baker Mayfield). Baltimore is one of three teams surrendering more than 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. With a team desperate for some offense and good news in general, I expect Winston to throw the ball early and often.

Sterling Shepard, WR TB

On Monday night, we saw the Buccaneers lose their top two wideouts, veterans Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, to serious injuries. While Godwin’s season is over, Evans could reportedly return in a few weeks. That will leave Baker Mayfield, one of the top fantasy producers on the season, to throw to backups. Veteran Sterling Shepard has seen his role increase in recent weeks and now has a chance to lead the group of young pass catchers. Only the Jaguars have allowed more top-24 fantasy performances to receivers than Atlanta, this week’s opponent for Shepard and the Bucs. Mayfield ripped the Falcons for three passing scores in Week Five and has a chance to repeat that performance this week. If he does, Shepard will be worthy of a spot in fantasy football starting lineups.

Cedric Tillman, WR CLE

Along with the injury to Watson, the Browns also lost their top wideout last week, as they traded veteran Amari Cooper. That left a lot of question marks on the Browns receiver depth chart. It was an easy assumption that veteran Jerry Jeudy would take charge but last week, second-year wideout Cedric Tillman led the way. Tillman led the team with 81 yards, catching eight of his 12 targets. Tillman has a similarly friendly matchup as his new quarterback in Week Eight. The Ravens have allowed seven top-24 fantasy performances this season, and give up the third-most fantasy points in the league to the position, more than 42 per game.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 8 QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
QB1Lamar Jackson, BAL34.40
QB2Baker Mayfield, TB27.00
QB3Russell Wilson, PIT24.90
QB4Jalen Hurts, PHI22.80
QB5Josh Allen, BUF21.00
QB6Drake Maye, NE20.80
QB7Kyler Murray, ARI20.20
QB8Marcus Mariota, WAS19.60
QB9Jared Goff, DET18.80
QB10Geno Smith, SEA17.80
QB11Brock Purdy, SF17.20
QB12Jordan Love, GB16.80

Season-Long QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
QB1Lamar Jackson, BAL177.90
QB2Baker Mayfield, TB162.20
QB3Jayden Daniels, WAS139.60
QB4Josh Allen, BUF139.20
QB5Joe Burrow, CIN135.50
QB6Kyler Murray, ARI123.70
QB7Geno Smith, SEA121.50
QB8Brock Purdy, SF119.00
QB9Justin Fields, PIT113.30
QB10Jalen Hurts, PHI112.10
QB11CJ Stroud, HOU105.90
QB12Jared Goff, DET105.80

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 GamesPlayers
6Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson
5Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts
4Jordan Love, Josh Allen
3Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
7JAX
6
5BAL, TB
4CAR, HOU, LV, NYG
3ARI, ATL, CLE, DAL, IND, KC, PHI, SEA, TEN, WAS
2CIN, DET, GB, LAC, LAR, MIN, NE, NYJ, SF
1BUF, DEN, NO
0CHI, MIA, PIT

The Jaguars remain the worst team in the league against passing games. They’ve been hit for a QB1 performance every week this season and that likely doesn’t change in Week Eight as they face off with Jordan Love and the Packers. It’s still October but it’s time to feast!

Along with Winston against the Ravens, other matchups to target this week include the Buccaneers (vs. Kirk Cousins), Cardinals (vs. Tua Tagovailoa), and Bengals (vs. Jalen Hurts.)

Three teams have still not allowed a QB1 game this year, making these matchups to avoid whenever possible. The rookie superstar matchups between the Bears and Commanders now seem likely to include veteran Marcus Mariota instead of his teammate Jayden Daniels. Mariota was impressive in relief last week but should be ignored this week. Kyler Murray has been inconsistent and difficult to predict all season and now faces the Dolphins defense, which allows just 11.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the lowest in the league. Daniel Jones is barely hanging onto his job and that could change at any moment. He’s an easy avoid against the Steelers.

Other difficult matchups this week include the Jets (vs. Drake Maye) and Broncos (vs. Andy Dalton.)

Running Backs

Week 8 RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
RB1Jahmyr Gibbs, DET32.00
RB2Rachaad White, TB29.10
RB3Saquon Barkley, PHI26.70
RB4Joe Mixon, HOU26.40
RB5Javonte Williams, DEN26.10
RB5 (tie)Breece Hall, NYJ26.10
RB7Derrick Henry, BAL25.20
RB8Tank Bigsby, JAX23.80
RB9Bijan Robinson, ATL23.30
RB19 (tie)Kenneth Walker, SEA23.30
RB11Kareem Hunt, KC22.30
RB12Aaron Jones, MIN20.60

Season-Long RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
RB1Derrick Henry, BAL160.50
RB2Alvin Kamara, NO145.00
RB3Saquon Barkley, PHI132.10
RB4Breece Hall, NYJ119.50
RB5Kyren Williams, LAR116.70
RB6Bijan Robinson, ATL116.40
RB7Jahmyr Gibbs, DET115.20
RB8Kenneth Walker, SEA111.30
RB9Chuba Hubbard, CAR107.00
RB10Jordan Mason, SF101.30
RB11Aaron Jones, MIN99.30
RB12David Montgomery, DET98.50

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 GamesPlayers
5Derrick Henry
4Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker
3Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, D’Andre Swift, James Cook, Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jahmyr Gibbs. Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

RB1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
10CAR 
9
8BUF, LV, NE
7ARI, JAX, LAR, TB
6CIN, GB, MIA, NYG, WAS
5DAL, DEN, IND, NO, PIT, SEA, SF
4ATL, BAL, CHI, CLE, LAC, NYJ, TEN
3DET, HOU, PHI
2KC, MIN

Veteran running back Javonte Williams enjoyed his best game of the season last week and now has a chance to build on that against the flailing Panthers, who have been burned for ten top-24 fantasy performances by running backs. No other team has more than eight. It’s no surprise that Carolina has also allowed the most fantasy points to the position, nearly 32 per contest.

The Bills (vs. Kenneth Walker), Raiders (vs. Kareem Hunt), and Patriots (vs. Breece Hall) are next in line and offer running back-friendly matchups in Week Eight. Each of those backs are must-start. The Cowboys (vs. Jordan Mason) and Saints (vs. JK Dobbins) have each given up more than 26 fantasy points per game to running backs, making them targets, as well.

The Chiefs (vs. Alexander Mattison) and Vikings (vs. Kyren Williams) have given up only a pair of top-24 performances so far this season. Mattison should be on fantasy benches this week but it will be fun to see how Williams fares against Minnesota.

Other defenses to avoid this week include Detroit (vs. Tony Pollard), Houston (vs. Jonathan Taylor?), Philadelphia (vs. Chase Brown), and the Chargers (vs. Alvin Kamara.)

Wide Receivers

Week 8 WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
WR1Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET25.20
WR2Rashod Bateman, BAL22.10
WR2 (tie)George Pickens, PIT22.10
WR2 (tie)Brian Thomas, JAX22.10
WR5Justin Jefferson, MIN21.40
WR5 (tie)AJ Brown, PHI19.90
WR7DK Metcalf, SEA19.90
WR8Drake London, ATL18.30
WR9Tee Higgins, CIN18.20
WR10Cedric Tillman, CLE18.10
WR11Cedrick Wilson, NO17.70
WR12Ja’Marr Chase, CIN17.70

Season-Long WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
WR1Ja’Marr Chase, CIN138.10
WR2Chris Godwin, TB137.80
WR3Drake London, ATL123.10
WR4Justin Jefferson, MIN116.40
WR5Garrett Wilson, NYJ110.50
WR6Stefon Diggs, HOU109.20
WR6 (tie)Jayden Reed, GB109.20
WR8Brian Thomas, JAX108.80
WR9Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET107.40
WR10Nico Collins, HOU106.70
WR11DK Metcalf, SEA105.80
WR12Terry McLaurin, WAS102.60

Most WR1 Games This Season

WR1 GamesPlayers
4Amon-Ra St. Brown
3AJ Brown, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas, Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf
2Alec Pierce, Allen Lazard, Deebo Samuel, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Drake London, Tee Higgins

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

WR1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
9JAX
8ATL, CAR, HOU
7BAL, CIN, CLE, GB, MIN, TB
6DET, IND, WAS
5ARI, BUF, NE, PHI, SEA, SF
4DAL, KC, LV, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, TEN
3DEN, LAC, LAR
2CHI, MIA

As expected, the Jaguars have also been bad against wide receivers, allowing a league-high nine top-24 performances. This week, they face the Packers. As usual, it is difficult to project which Green Bay receiver will prosper, but I’d be using all of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and even gambling on Dontayvion Wicks if necessary.

Other players with positive matchups include: Courtland Sutton (vs. CAR), Michael Pittman/Josh Downs (vs. HOU), Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN), Calvin Ridley (vs. DET), Drake London (vs. TB) and Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle (vs. ARI.)

The Bears and Dolphins have mostly shut down opposing wideouts, allowing just two top-24 performances each through seven weeks. That’s bad news this week for Terry McLaurin (vs. CHI) and Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. MIA). Harrison has mostly been held in check in recent weeks, while McLaurin may be without his star quarterback.

Other difficult matchups this week include Diontae Johnson (vs. DEN), Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison (vs. LAR), Jakobi Meyers (vs. KC) and Demario Douglas (vs. NYJ.)

Tight Ends

Week 8 TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
TE1David Njoku, CLE23.60
TE2Jonnu Smith, MIA22.60
TE3Mark Andrews, BAL20.10
TE4Brock Bowers, LV19.30
TE5Cade Otton, TB18.00
TE6Hunter Henry, NE17.20
TE7Will Dissly, LAC16.10
TE8George Kittle, SF15.20
TE9Zach Ertz, WAS14.00
TE10Kyle Pitts, ATL13.50
TE11Tucker Kraft, GB12.30
TE12Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR12.10

Season-Long TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
TE1Brock Bowers, LV101.90
TE2George Kittle, SF101.50
TE3Cole Kmet, CHI72.90
TE4Tucker Kraft, GB71.60
TE5Trey McBride, ARI71.20
TE6Hunter Henry, NE64.30
TE7Kyle Pitts, ATL63.80
TE8Isaiah Likely, BAL60.40
TE9Zach Ertz, WAS59.80
TE10Pat Freiermuth, PIT58.50
TE11Mark Andrews, BAL57.70
TE12Dalton Kincaid, BUF56.60
TE12 (tie)Cade Otton, TB56.60

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 GamesPlayers
6George Kittle
5Brock Bowers
4Zach Ertz
3Brenton Strange, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Cade Otton, Hunter Henry, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Tucker Kraft

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
5BAL, GB, LAR
4CIN, IND, JAX, SEA
3BUF, CAR, DEN, KC, MIN, NO, PIT, TB, WAS
2ARI, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, LAC, LV, NE, NYG, NYJ, SF
1MIA, PHI
0ATL, TEN

A trio of teams have allowed five TE1 games so far this season. In Week Eight, that means three of the league’s best tight ends are gearing up for potential massive games. David Njoku (vs. BAL), Evan Engram (vs. GB), and TJ Hockenson (vs. LAR) are each in position to finish as high-end TE1s this week.

Other players with matchups to target include Brock Bowers (vs. KC), Dalton Schultz (vs. IND), and Grant Calcaterra (vs. CIN.)

The Falcons (vs. Cade Otton) and Titans (vs. Sam LaPorta) have yet to surrender a TE1 performance this season. With Otton in line for increased targets due to injuries, I’d still be willing to roll him out despite the poor matchup. Other players with difficult matchups in Week Eight include Trey McBride (vs. MIA), Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely (vs. CLE), and Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. DET.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

picture1 3

ryan mcdowell
Latest posts by Ryan McDowell (see all)

Weekly Matchups: Three Waiver Wire Pickups To Start