Dynasty Fantasy Football ADP: Post-Draft Risers and Fallers
The 2024 NFL Draft is completed and now the dynasty fantasy football fallout has begun. The rookie values have, of course, been drastically changing, but what about the veterans? While this time of year is certainly an exciting one for dynasty managers, it can also be terrifying. You can go to sleep one night with a bell-cow running back, and wake up the next day with a high-end handcuff.
Now that the market has had a few weeks to adjust, Ryan McDowell has updated his dynasty ADP. Using his latest May DLF Dynasty startup ADP, here are the veteran players who were most affected by the NFL Draft, along with their dynasty fantasy football outlook. The indicated change in ADP is the rise or fall from April to May.
Risers
Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL (+65.3 spots) and Rico Dowdle, RB DAL (+24.5 spots)
The Cowboys surprised everyone by skipping on the running back position in the NFL Draft. Jerry Jones told the media that he was targeting Jonathon Brooks, but after they missed out on Brooks, it appears they decided to punt the position and go with the veteran route instead, bringing back their old buddy Elliott. Elliott skyrockets up the ADP rankings because he went from being a free agent to a potential bell-cow back in the span of one signature.
He looked decent at times last year in New England, but still had career lows in carries (184), yards (642), touchdowns (three) and yards per carry (3.5). Elliott is a fine player for a win-now team to go out and target for this season only – he’s only valued as the 53rd running back in these drafts. Dowdle, meanwhile, is the younger option and may have enough juice to pull some important carries away from Elliott. This may turn into an ugly, unproductive committee in Dallas.
Adam Thielen, WR CAR (+29.3 spots)
Adam Thielen’s Dynasty ADP History.
After profiling a 28-year-old running back, it only makes sense to discuss a 33-year-old wide receiver. Thielen was one of the biggest risers of this draft, despite the Panthers trading up to draft Xavier Legette. While this may seem confusing on the surface, it actually makes some sense.
The vibes around the Panthers offense are much better than they were at the end of 2023. Coach Dave Canales has a history of resurrecting quarterback careers, and they’re doing all the right things around him. The Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson, and spent draft picks on a wide receiver, tight end and running back, giving Bryce Young plenty of weapons to succeed. While Legette may add more competition for targets, he won’t compete with Thielen for snaps. They are completely different wide receivers and line up in different spots on the field. Thielen should still be Young’s main safety blanket. He was the number WR17 last year, and he only scored four touchdowns, matching his lowest total since 2015. With some regression at that stat, Thielen could once again be a PPR WR2 in fantasy football this year. He’s an obvious target for win-now teams as the WR85 in ADP.
JK Dobbins, RB LAC (+27 spots)
Before the NFL Draft, the Cowboys and the Chargers were the presumed favorites to draft a running back on day two. The Cowboys didn’t draft a single one, and the Chargers waited until the sixth round to take a small-school back in Kimani Vidal. With Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman running the show, the Chargers may lead the league in rush attempts this season. With limited added competition to the backfield, Dobbins’ stock was bound to rise, but I certainly wouldn’t be targeting him.
He may have the highest upside in the backfield for this year, but he’s coming off a major injury. It’s impossible to know if his burst is back until we see him on the field. They signed Gus Edwards first, and Vidal is a very similar running back to Blake Corum, Harbaugh’s bell-cow back when he won a National Championship this past year with Michigan. Dobbins, in an ugly committee, with the constant fear of another injury, is not climbing up my draft board. In fact, I called him one of the biggest losers of the NFL Draft in my previous article, Dynasty Fantasy Football Winners And Losers From The AFC West.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR TEN (+26.2 spots)
The Titans were in a perfect spot to Rome Odunze with the seventh overall pick. Odunze would’ve likely been the number one wide receiver on this team immediately and taken plenty of targets away from Hopkins. As it is, they decided to draft JC Latham to beef up the offensive line instead of a pass-catching weapon. In fact, they didn’t draft a wide receiver until the sixth round and they signed Tyler Boyd after the draft. Boyd will compete more with Treylon Burks, meaning Hopkins will have a very similar role to the one he played last year. Hopkins bounced back with the Titans last year and finished as the WR22 in PPR. If Will Levis takes a step forward this season, Hopkins could find himself in the top 20 at the end of the season.
Rashid Shaheed, WR NO (+25.83 spots) and AT Perry, WR NO (+23.8 spots)
The Saints cut Michael Thomas this off-season and barely did anything to replace him. They drafted Bub Means in the fifth round. Means is a similar player to Shaheed, and could replace him on the depth chart someday, but for now, Shaheed’s spot is secured. Meanwhile, Perry quietly had a solid rookie season last year, including a WR12 finish in week 12 when he scored 20.3 PPR points. Perry should be the team’s third wide receiver to start the season.
DJ Chark, WR LAC (+20.8 spots)
Chark is another veteran rising up the ADP board because he signed after the NFL Draft. Chark had a very disappointing season in Charlotte last year, and he had to wait until after the draft to sign on with the Chargers. Los Angeles lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this off-season. While they drafted Ladd McConkey, he’s likely to be the team’s replacement for Allen. Chark will battle it out with Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston for the Williams role on this offense.
I frankly have no interest in Chark for dynasty or redraft fantasy football leagues. As I mentioned before, this isn’t the same Chargers team we’ve known for years. With Harbaugh and Roman in town, they’re going to run the football constantly. Chark has finished as a top 45 wide receiver only once in his career, and this group is so crowded with unproven youth. Let someone else in your league get their hopes up.
Fallers
Michael Mayer, TE LVR (-62.5 spots)
April 25 was a disaster for Mayer’s dynasty managers. He had a slow rookie season, but the hope was that the Raiders would draft a quarterback in the first round to help sustain his value. But after the early draft run, the Raiders missed out on the position. To make matters worse, they decided to forgo need and take the best player available, Brock Bowers. So now, instead of a promising young tight end with a shiny new quarterback, Mayer is the (eventual) TE2 on an offense that will be run by either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. His ADP was 137.7 in April, and it fell all the way down to 200.2 after the draft. He is worth a stash still in dynasty leagues, but any hope for a long-term TE1 has to come off the table.
Zay Jones, WR ARI (-37 spots)
Jones was cut by the Jaguars after the NFL Draft. They drafted Brian Thomas and Jones became dispensable. He visited several teams, but was quickly scooped up by the Cardinals. I actually really like this landing spot for Jones. He may not be guaranteed a starting role, but the only players blocking him from the field are Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. Jones has had more NFL success than either of them and showed he still has some juice last year, despite missing time with a knee injury. If Jones is healthy, he could be the secondary option for Kyler Murray opposite of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jonathan Mingo, WR CAR (-35.7 spots)
While Adam Thielen’s stock rose as a result of the NFL Draft, Mingo’s plummeted. The Panthers have had to use a top-60 pick on a wide receiver in three of the past four drafts. Mingo is the latest one who, apparently, hasn’t worked out. He only caught 43 balls as a rookie, and the Panthers decided they needed to trade for Diontae Johnson and trade up for Xavier Legette. Legette pushes Mingo into a reserve role, in the same situation as Terrace Marshall Jr. Mingo may need to wait for Adam Thielen to retire or leave the team before he gets a chance to break out.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB PHI (-35.2 spots)
Gainwell already saw a significant drop in value earlier this off-season when the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley. Gainwell could still have a role this season as a change-of-pace back, but the Eagles also spent a fourth-round pick on Will Shipley. Gainwell has had a bit of an odd career in Philadelphia. He came into the league as a pass-catching talent, but he was used most last season as a between-the-tackles running back. Shipley is a better runner than Gainwell is, and he can succeed in the passing game just like Gainwell. This is the final year of his rookie deal, and he may not have much value on the open market if he hits free agency next year.
Mike Williams, WR NYJ (-31.7 spots)
The addition of Malachi Corley is a ding to Williams’s value, but he has bigger problems with his health. He is not on the field for OTAs and may struggle to be cleared before the start of the season. Williams only signed a one-year contract with the Jets, so Corley could be a direct replacement for him once his contract is up next season. If he misses the beginning of the season, Corley could steal his starting role away. Availability is the best ability, and Williams has never been reliably available.
Marvin Mims, WR DEN (-31.3 spots)
It was a great year last year for rookie wide receivers. But, the only player from the 2023 class who can call himself a Pro Bowler is Marvin Mims. Obviously, he was a Pro Bowler for his accomplishments on special teams, because he only caught 22 passes last season in his rookie year. This season, Mims will be paired up with an underwhelming quarterback in Bo Nix. He’ll also need to compete with Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick and Troy Franklin for snaps and targets. Given his pedigree, Mims should emerge as the number two option on this team behind Courtland Sutton, and has a good chance of having long-term success with the Broncos. If the stock on Mims is going down like this, I will happily buy the dip.
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