April Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers
Following April 2023 mock drafts we have new information to work off. This article will note wide receiver movement: fallers and risers according to their ADP from one year ago. I will note significant changes, not if a player is being drafted within a few picks difference. We should work off with the information on implementing different strategies when drafting our dynasty teams. Value does not equal production, in this case, where a player being drafted does not mean they will or will not produce points.
This article will cover wide receivers and we are able to go more in depth with their ADP changes. There is an assumed shelf life boosting their value compared to running backs.
Wide Receivers
Below is a visual representation where the wide receivers are currently being drafted. There were instances with ADP in which players had the same ADP. For example Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson had the (average) 10th selection. This means the picture has Waddle at pick 10 and Wilson at pick 11, despite Amon-Ra St. Brown having the eleventh overall ADP. Which means he is at pick 12.
I probably confused you. What I mean is the picture may have a slight difference compared to ADP. However, the players are in order in which they are drafted due to the overlapping at a specific selection.
The mock drafts happened after the 2023 free agency period, but before the NFL Draft. The visual represents selections up to round 15. For the entire April ADP click here.
Notable Selections
These selections may be risers or fallers. More specifically, players I wanted to have a separate category to note.
Drake London, ATL – WR11 (+35.0)
We love to see a second-year-leap for wide receivers. London had a solid rookie year in a run-first offense. He managed 117 targets over 17 games with a 30% target share. We know the talent is there. Atlanta seems committed to Desmond Ridder as their quarterback. London and him had a great connection in four games: 36 targets and 25 receptions. It should be noted Kyle Pitts was not playing. However, if Atlanta stays committed to the run game this may mean another WR2/3 season for London when considering Pitts returning to the field, too.
Older Wide Receivers: WR14-16
These selections are coming at the end of round two and early round three. Cooper Kupp (WR14, -12.8), Stefon Diggs (WR15, -1.7), and Davante Adams (WR16, -9.8) are aging assets, but we know they are able to bring production and help win leagues. These are notable selections as this article covers dynasty start up. We should not be surprised all three are being drafted later. I wrote an article noting the value-to-production conundrum on ‘elite’ aging wide receivers, if you want to read more information.
There is risk versus reward with particular picks in dynasty start ups. After all, the goal is to win dynasty championships.
Wide Receiver Risers
When a young wide receiver explodes on the scene it should not be surprising to see their ADP rise the following year. I do not necessarily need to mention why Amon-Ra St. Brown (+39.0) is currently being drafted at the end of the first round.
Jameson Williams, DET – WR21 (+20.3)
The 2022 season was irrelevant for Williams as we knew he was recovering from an ACL injury. He managed to play six games but only saw nine targets, never managing more than 25% snaps played. This may be concerning, but we cannot confirm or deny if this was part of the Lions plans. These mock drafts happened before the recent news of a six-game suspension for violation of NFL gambling policy. He bet on a college football game within an NFL facility.
He just turned 22 years old. In regards to the suspension: if you were in on him, you still should be. If you were out on him, you still should be.
Christian Watson, GB – WR22 (+62.0)
After battling injuries during camp, Watson had a slow start to the 2022 season. He exploded over the last eight games: 52 targets, 31 receptions, 523 yards, and seven touchdowns. Green Bay has found their WR1. Despite the assumed departure of Aaron Rodgers, Watson is currently going in the fourth round of start up drafts. Situations change while talent will remain.
Christian Kirk, JAX – WR37 (+30.5)
During the first year in a new system, Kirk was rewarded with the WR11 finish in PPR scoring. Trevor Lawrence and company are looking to continue their success in 2023. Kirk will turn 27 years old in November, so I am unsure why he is being drafted as a WR4. Drafters may assume Calvin Ridley will provide competition for Kirk, paired with the resurrection of Evan Engram.
I would not be concerned. I went into detail on the “too many mouths to feed” notion, which you can read here. Let’s not forget Zay Jones and Marvin Jones combined for 202 targets. Funny enough, Tim Jones also saw four targets. Maybe Kirk should change his last name.
Additional Risers
Brandon Aiyuk, SF – WR30 (+12.0)
Aiyuk gets better year-after-year and I believe is a better wide receiver than Deebo Samuel.
Calvin Ridley, JAX – WR33 (+45.8)
As mentioned with Kirk, Ridley steps into a favorable situation. He will be seeing NFL action for the first time in nearly two years.
Wide Receiver Fallers
We know aging wide receivers naturally fall in ADP. When doing a startup, oftentimes the plan is to build for the future. This is why we see young wide receivers rising in ADP.
Diontae Johnson, PIT – WR31 (-31.7)
Despite three consecutive seasons surpassing 140 targets, Johnson has fallen nearly three rounds. He will be turning 27 in July, so there should be no concern regarding age over the foreseeable future. I am unsure if drafters are worried about Kenny Pickett or the potential emergence of second-year George Pickens.
We may have a different outlook on Johnson if he scored a single touchdown over the 2023 season. That’s right, he scored zero touchdowns. I have seen rumors floating around that he may be a trade target.
Courtland Sutton, DEN – WR44 (-32.2)
Denver has a new head coach with Sean Payton. He shut down rumors regarding the potential trade of Sutton. We hope to see a bounce back year for Russell Wilson and the Broncos. This means we hope to see a bounce back year for Sutton, too.
His box score stats are not appealing. He saw 109 targets over 15 games in 2022 but only managed 64 receptions and two touchdowns. The volume is there and should continue to be there.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE – WR45 (-33.8)
The Patriots found their guy in free agency while letting Jakobi Meyers walk. Smith-Schuster will look to resurrect his career in New England. The Pittsburgh days will linger in our memories. As for now, we are hoping for 70 receptions over the season. New England often has a good system and will make the most out of their players.
Additional Fallers
Terry McLaurin, WAS – WR29 (-14.7)
Despite three straight 1,000 yard seasons, McLaurin is being drafted a round lower. He will be turning 28 in September.
There seems to be a trend with these wide receivers. Once were hyped up and viewed as top assets who then “disappointed” over the following years. This could be due to injuries, bad quarterback play, or they just are not flashy to warrant the draft picks. Again, McLaurin has three straight 1,000 yard seasons but because he is going to turn 28 years old he is not desired? It might be due to the fact he has yet to have a WR1 season.
Discussion
The ADP often showed players being drafted similarly to their previous years’ ADP. I wanted to note shifts closer to a two round change or more. The shelf life of wide receivers makes it easy to maintain their ADP and value. As noted within the article, aging wide receivers will fall and young wide receivers will rise. These two go hand-in-hand.
We should be careful when there is hype surrounding a player. Oftentimes it is warranted but we need to take the necessary steps to confirm the hype. We may not find out until a few years after when we see the ADP fluctuations. Kupp, Diggs, and Adams are still being drafted early while Smith-Schuster and Sutton are falling beyond the sixth rounds.
Young wide receivers will be drafted early. It should be important to select the young wide receivers who have proven their worth. It does appear drafters are doing such according to the ADP. Never fall into the sunk cost fallacy. My concern with London is not his talent, but if the system he is in continues to not provide passing upside. Shades of AJ Brown in Tennessee lingers for me. Touchdowns will boost season end finishes.
Dynasty Implications
When doing a start up you will often have a draft strategy in mind. It is important to have an idea of what to do. Remember, when there is value on the board it is okay to abandon the strategy and change your approach. An example would be Cooper Kupp was drafted at pick 31 in a mock draft. The drafter could have taken Michael Pittman (pick 40) but decided production is more valuable despite the four year age gap.
This does not mean a wide receiver like Pittman will continue to underwhelm. As stated, situations change while talent stays the same. Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan did Pittman no favors. The upcoming NFL Draft has the Colts staring down a potential franchise quarterback. There are variables to consider when doing a startup draft. We definitely want to take talented players who produce for our teams. We also want to have an understanding of a player’s environment.
I would like to end on the Pittman example. He has produced a WR17 and WR20 season with below-average (at best) quarterback play. If you have done a dynasty start up this offseason it is assumed Indyanapolis will draft a quarterback in the first round. This is a situation changing moment for a young (25 years old) wide receiver who has seen 270 targets over the last two seasons. However, you may want to believe in Will Levis if you believe in Pittman.
Well, it is assumed the Colts will draft Levis. This may be a good reason to wait until after the NFL Draft to do a start up, if you care about these idiosyncrasies.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
