Monday Mocks: April Dynasty ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 10, 2023

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys and more.

With a new month, NFL Draft month, I should say, we have updated dynasty startup ADP coming your way. The full data will be available on the site soon for both 1QB and superflex leagues, but I wanted to offer an early look at how the early rounds are looking as we near the keynote offseason event later this month.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

1.02 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

1.03 AJ Brown, WR PHI

1.04 Bijan Robinson, RB ROOKIE

1.05 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL

1.06 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

1.07 Christian McCaffrey, RB SF

1.08 Breece Hall, RB NYJ

1.09 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

1.10 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

1.11 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

1.12 Chris Olave, WR NO

There have been 21 occasions of a unanimous 1.01 pick in DLF dynasty ADP history and Justin Jefferson now has three straight as he was the top overall pick in all six of our April mock drafts. He joins Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham as players to accomplish this in multiple months. While Jefferson is the obvious top pick, I am surprised at the gap between him and Chase, who was the second pick in each draft this month.

With less than three weeks remaining, we still don’t have a good idea of where the rookie running back Robinson will land. He does have a new high ADP, moving up one spot since last month. Robinson is just the fifth rookie back to reach an ADP of 1.04 or higher and he’s the first to do it before being drafted into the league.

Taylor continues to hold down the RB2 spot but the gap is narrowing as both McCaffrey and Hall are close behind, forming the second tier of dynasty backs. Speaking of McCaffrey, it is somewhat surprising to still see him among the top-twelve players given his age, as he turns 27 in June. Since 2014, only four 27-year-old backs have held a first-round ADP. This suggests CMC is due for a value drop in the coming months.

The round ends with a string of four straight wide receivers who are all 24 years old or younger. Wilson, Waddle, St. Brown, and Olave have combined for 29 WR1 games over the past two seasons, with the first three producing a top-twelve performance 30% of their games. Olave totaled three WR1 games as a rookie, 20% of his total games, but is also the youngest and just got a quarterback upgrade as the Saints added Derek Carr.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 Tee Higgins, WR CIN

2.02 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

2.03 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

2.04 Kenneth Walker, RB SEA

2.05 Drake London, WR ATL

2.06 DK Metcalf, WR SEA

2.07 Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

2.08 Travis Kelce, TE KC

2.09 Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

2.10 Josh Allen, QB BUF

2.11 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

2.12 Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

The first player off the board in the second round is the Bengals WR2, Higgins. Although the player is obviously valuable, I believe Higgins is somewhat overrated at this ADP. In his three seasons, Higgins has produced a total of ten WR1 games, along with that same number of WR2 performances. That leaves 57% of his games as the WR25 or worse, including 13 games with under ten fantasy points.

The second round includes a pair of quarterbacks and tight ends. After months as the reigning dynasty QB1, Allen has now fallen behind Mahomes as the top option. The real surprise comes at tight end. For the first time in nearly two years, Kelce is the dynasty TE1, barely overtaking Pitts.

Be sure to check out our 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

ROUND THREE:

3.01 Travis Etienne, RB JAX

3.02 Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

3.03 Stefon Diggs, WR BUF

3.04 Davante Adams, WR LV

3.05 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR ROOKIE

3.06 Mark Andrews, TE BAL

3.07 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

3.08 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB ROOKIE

3.09 Josh Jacobs, RB LV

3.10 DJ Moore, WR CHI

3.11 Deebo Samuel, WR SF

3.12 Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE

If you are looking for a reliable veteran, you’ll love your third-round targets. The reigning top-scoring running back, Ekeler, comes in at the 3.02 spot. Ekeler’s dynasty value and ADP have been very volatile over the past few months, from nearly cracking the first round as the 2022 season neared an end to now falling outside of the top twenty-five players. That likely has a lot to do with Ekeler’s ongoing contract talks with the Chargers and his trade demand. Los Angeles is the ideal spot for Ekeler to continue to produce and a trade to nearly any other team would harm his value and production.

Two of the best wideouts of the past decade come off the board next with Diggs and Adams. This is Diggs’ lowest ADP since February of last year as he’s fallen down to Adams, who has regularly been drafted in Round Three since the middle of last season. Adams will be playing with a new quarterback in 2023 after the Raiders signed veteran Jimmy Garoppolo to replace Carr. The team also shipped out Darren Waller while adding Jakobi Meyers. As always, Adams will see as many targets as he can handle.

Round Three also includes the next two rookies, Smith-Njigba and Gibbs. The pair are seemingly locked in as the 1.02 and 1.03 spots in rookie drafts with Smith-Njigba projected as the rookie WR1 and Gibbs in a tier of his own as the RB2. Once JSN has a home, it is easy to project him moving up from his current WR17 ADP. It won’t be a surprise if he cracks the top twelve before the season begins.

ROUND FOUR:

4.01 Najee Harris, RB PIT

4.02 Michael Pittman, WR IND

4.03 Jameson Williams, WR DET

4.04 Christian Watson, WR GB

4.05 Treylon Burks, WR TEN

4.06 Chris Godwin, WR TB

4.07 Nick Chubb, RB CLE

4.08 TJ Hockenson, TE MIN

4.09 Joe Burrow, QB CIN

4.10 Justin Herbert, QB LAC

4.11 D’Andre Swift, RB DET

4.12 Jordan Addison, WR ROOKIE

If the third round was all about safety and reliability, Round Four brings the upside…and risk. There are four first or second-year wideouts. Each of the three sophomores brings exciting breakout potential, but are not without their own concerns. Each of Williams, Watson, and Burks missed time due to injury as a rookie. This is also the highest ADP ever for both Williams and Watson.

This is the highest Hockenson has been drafted in over a year and a half. After a hot streak to end the season following his trade to the Vikings, Hockenson is being valued as the consensus TE4 in dynasty leagues.

There were already reasons to be concerned about Lions running back Swift entering the offseason, but those worries were ramped up after the team signed veteran David Montgomery. Swift’s April ADP of 47 marks the first time in his career that he’s fallen outside of the top-forty players.

ROUND FIVE:

5.01 Javonte Williams, RB DEN

5.02 George Kittle, TE SF

5.03 Quentin Johnston, WR ROOKIE

5.04 Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

5.05 Tony Pollard, RB DAL

5.06 Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

5.07 Justin Fields, QB CHI

5.08 Zach Charbonnet, RB ROOKIE

5.09 Derrick Henry, RB TEN

5.10 George Pickens, WR PIT

5.11 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

5.12 Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

Denver’s Williams is another running back whose dynasty value is in flux. After missing much of the 2022 season with an ACL injury, the assumption has been that Williams would be back and good to go for the upcoming season. Lately, there have been whispers suggesting that won’t be the case. Add in that Denver also signed underrated veteran Samaje Perine and Williams’ value is fading fast. This is the first time Williams has fallen outside of the top four rounds this calendar year.

The fifth round includes a pair of 49ers pass catchers with Kittle at 5.02 and Aiyuk ending the round. With Garoppolo gone, the Niners will turn to Brock Purdy…or Trey Lance…or maybe even Sam Darnold. Actually, no one is quite sure who will be under center in San Francisco.

The veteran back Henry checks in at 57 overall, his lowest ADP since December of 2018. The offseason always offers a buying window on aging players and now might be the time to pounce on the value Henry is offering at this ADP.

We’ll be back next week with another Monday Mock!

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.