Weekly Matchups: Chase The Trends

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

At the end of this article, you’ll find the weekly matchup data that I refer to as my Flow Chart. This is what I use each week to help determine many of my lineup decisions. At this point of the season though, I like to dig in even more and focus on a smaller set of recent data. Many things have changed since the beginning of the season, so while the full set of information has lots of value, a look at recent trends can be very useful, especially with a playoff spot on the line.

Here’s a look at the Flow Chart, with only the past six weeks of data included…

A few things that stand out, especially in comparison to the season-long chart…

• Only three teams have allowed more QB1 games than the Chiefs this season and that trend has continued in recent weeks as they’ve given up four in the past six weeks, tied for most in the league. This week, they face Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This is a good week to take a shot on Herbert, who had reeled off five straight QB1 games before last week’s stinker.
• The Bills have struggled against running backs overall this season, allowing over 26 fantasy points per game, third-most in the league. They have shown great improvement in recent weeks though and are one of three teams to give up just a pair of top-24 performances in the past six weeks. That’s bad news for a struggling Kyren Williams and the Rams.
• With the Texans off, the next team to chase at the wideout position is the Lions. Teams have been forced to throw against Detroit as they play catchup. That, along with a glut of injuries to the Lions’ defense has resulted in plenty of fantasy points allowed to receivers. One of the top games of the week is the Packers against Detroit, meaning it’s a good time to give Jayden Reed, and maybe even Christian Watson, a shot in your fantasy lineups.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 13 QB1s

Season-Long QB1s

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Buccaneers and Jaguars have each allowed nine QB1 performances on the season, tied for the most in the league. In the final week of the regular season for most dynasty leagues, it will be difficult to chase those tasty matchups this week. Tampa Bay faces off with the Raiders and Aidan O’Connell, who produced his first QB1 game of the season last week. The Jags face division rival Tennessee and Will Levis. Good luck relying on either of these fellas with your season on the line.

There are some nice matchups for quarterbacks you do actually feel comfortable starting though. The Chiefs and Raiders have each given up seven QB1 games on the year. This week, Kansas City matches up with Justin Herbert while the Raiders attempt to slow down Baker Mayfield. Both quarterbacks are coming off disappointing games last week and will look to bounce back in a juicy matchup. Finally, the suddenly surging Dallas Cowboys have been winning games, but are still allowing over 24 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, fourth-most in the league. It’s once again time for Joe Burrow to shine.

The Steelers have still not allowed a QB1 game on the season, but Jameis Winston will look to change that, coming off a wild Monday Night battle in which he nearly threw for 500 yards, along with multiple scores to both teams. The Bills (vs. Matthew Stafford) and Dolphins (vs. Aaron Rodgers) have been very tough against opposing signal callers too. Stafford is still tempting to use at home, but Rodgers is an easy fade regardless of matchup. Other quarterbacks with challenging matchups in Week Fourteen include Brock Purdy (vs. CHI) and Bryce Young (vs. PHI.)

Running Backs

Week 13 RB1s

Season-Long RB1s

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

The Panthers have now allowed a whopping 15 top-24 running back performances on the season, two more than any other team in the league. I can’t even imagine what Saquon Barkley will do on Sunday.

The Jaguars (vs. Tony Pollard), Buccaneers (vs. Ameer Abdullah), Cardinals (vs. Kenneth Walker), Rams (vs. James Cook) and Giants (vs. Alvin Kamara) have allowed at least a dozen top-24 games, making their opponents must-starts. Abdullah is the obvious exception, but could still be worth a flex start considering all of the byes this week.

Other backs with positive matchups in Week Fourteen include D’Andre Swift (vs. SF) and Travis Etienne (vs. TEN.)

The Chiefs and Vikings have allowed a league-low four top-24 games this season. The Chiefs should be able to control the Chargers’ running game and stop Gus Edwards from being a fantasy factor. Minnesota has a bit tougher challenge, facing Bijan Robinson and the Falcons. Even with this difficult opponent, Robinson belongs in fantasy lineups every week.

Other backs to alter expectations for this week, due to their opponent, include Josh Jacobs (vs. DET), Chuba Hubbard (vs. PHI), and the Steelers duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren (vs. CLE.)

Wide Receivers

Week 13 WR1s

Season-Long WR1s

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

The good news is we have an obvious weekly target as the Texans have given up 18 top-24 games in just thirteen weeks. The bad news is Houston is on bye this week. Let’s move on to the Vikings, who have permitted 14 top-24 performances. Now they’ll try to stop the Falcons duo of Darnell Mooney and Drake London. Even with the recent poor play from quarterback Kirk Cousins, both wideouts are worthy of a start this week.

Other teams allowing at least one top-24 performance per week include the Bengals (vs. CeeDee Lamb), Browns (vs. George Pickens), Jaguars (vs. Calvin Ridley), and Buccaneers (vs. Jakobi Meyers.)

The Giants have been playing impressive pass defense, allowing just five top-24 receiver performances and none since Week Nine. This week, the trend should continue as they face the Saints and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Bears (vs. Deebo Samuel/Jauan Jennings) and Dolphins (vs. Garrett Wilson) have only given up six top-24 games and with questionable quarterback play, we need to adjust the projections for those receivers.

Other wideouts with tough matchups this week include Mike Evans (vs. LV), Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ), DJ Moore/Keenan Allen/Rome Odunze (vs. SF), Brian Thomas (vs. TEN) and Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua (vs. BUF.)

Tight Ends

Week 13 TE1s

Season-Long TE1s

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals and Packers have allowed eight TE1 performances each this year. The Cowboys hope to have Jake Ferguson back in the lineup against the Bengals on Monday night, while Sam LaPorta should be in good position to continue his recent hot streak against the Pack.

Other tight ends with positive matchups this week include Grant Calcaterra (vs. CAR), Will Dissly (vs. KC), and Cade Otton (vs. LV.)

A five-pack of teams have only allowed a pair of TE1 games this season. That’s concerning for Noah Fant (vs. ARI), TJ Hockenson (vs. ATL), Juwan Johnson (vs. NYG), Cole Kmet (vs. SF) and Evan Engram (vs. TEN.) Tucker Kraft (vs. DET) and Jonnu Smith (vs. NYJ) are coming off great Week Thirteen performances but now face a difficult foe this week.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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