Dynasty Blueprint: Week Ten
Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.
This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.
DYNASTY FIVE
Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off of another week of NFL action.
Stroud Wows
On last week’s edition of the DLF Dynasty Podcast, while discussing the impressive early play of Texans rookie CJ Stroud, I mentioned that as good as he has been, we have yet to see his ceiling. Well, we saw that on Sunday. Stroud became the 20th player in league history to pass for more than 450 yards and five touchdowns in a game. He’s the only one of the twenty to accomplish that feat as a rookie. Big fantasy performances are not uncommon at the quarterback position, but Stroud’s path to production was rare. He became just the ninth quarterback in league history to exceed 40 fantasy points with ten rushing yards or less and no rushing touchdowns. Oh, and his company on that list is pretty encouraging, via Stathead Football…
For dynasty managers, the Stroud topic focuses on how highly he can be ranked. In our soon-to-be-released November dynasty ADP, Stroud is the QB10. He’s directly behind Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Anthony Richardson. A case can be made that he should leap over each of those three, potentially pushing him to QB7. At the worst, Stroud should be considered a likely first-round pick in upcoming superflex dynasty startup drafts.
A Giant Injury
Injuries have taken their toll on many teams around the league but have been especially cruel to the New York Giants. After last year’s surprising playoff appearance and a Coach of the Year Award for Brian Daboll, there were some lofty expectations for the Giants this season. Instead, both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley have missed time with injuries. Last week, the team lost veteran backup Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury and he ultimately landed on the injured reserve list. Against the Raiders in Week Nine, Jones suffered an apparent ACL injury, which is expected to end his season. Now at 2-6 at last in the NFC East, the Giants will have to turn to Tommy DeVito. No Jones, no Darren Waller. This team will lean heavily on Barkley, who also seems to get nicked up every single week.
Lamb Slaughters Philly
It was a slow and frustrating start to the season for Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb. Through the first five weeks, Lamb was the WR20 and had scored just one touchdown. Since the team’s Week Seven bye, Lamb has been the most dominant receiver in the game. In fact, his numbers over the past two weeks nearly match his output from the first five weeks.
Last week, I focused on just how good AJ Brown has been playing for the Eagles. With Brown presumably locked in as the WR3 in dynasty rankings, Lamb is making his case as the WR4. In our November ADP, both Lamb and Brown are top-five overall picks. That’s nothing new for Lamb, who has been a first-round dynasty startup pick every month since August 2021. Here’s a quick look at his dynasty ADP history, per our ADP Over Time App.
Ravens Rookies
One of the most anticipated games of Week Nine was a pair of first place teams as the Seahawks traveled to Baltimore. Instead of a good game, the Ravens served up a blowout as they routed Seattle 37-3. It was another quiet game for rookie receiver Zay Flowers, who caught just one pass, his only target, for 11 yards. This is Flowers’ second straight game with less than 20 yards in what appeared to be juicy matchups. Flowers was the WR16 in Week One with a nine-for-78 performance but he hasn’t eclipsed that yardage total in a game since. With Mark Andrews serving as the Ravens’ top passing target and Lamar Jackson spreading the ball around, it appears the dynasty community moved Flowers up rankings too far, too fast. Flowers is currently the WR21 in our new dynasty ADP.
Flowers wasn’t the only noteworthy Ravens rookie in Week Nine. Seeing the first significant action of his career, undrafted free agent Keaton Mitchell went wild. Mitchell entered the game in the middle of the second quarter and made a quick impact. Mitchell gained at least five yards on seven of his nine carries and helped put the game away with third quarter runs of 40 (for a touchdown) and 60 yards. The Ravens have been getting by in the running game with veterans Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, but neither of those players offers the game-breaking skill of Mitchell. Mitchell will be the top waiver target of the week in all formats. Hopefully, you were ahead of the pack and already have him rostered.
© tommy gilligan-usa today sports
Impending RB Shake Up
In Week Nine, a pair of once-reliable running backs took a huge step towards regaining their once-lofty value. Jonathan Taylor totaled 69 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. More importantly, he played 74% of the snaps while Zack Moss saw just 13 snaps on offense. Moss managed just 26 rushing yards. Even in a somewhat disappointing performance for Taylor, he staked his claim to the Colts backfield moving forward.
It’s a similar story for the Packers as Aaron Jones put together his best performance since Week One. Jones totaled 99 yards and a touchdown while playing the majority of the Packers’ offensive snaps for the first time in weeks. With Jones dealing with injuries for much of the season, AJ Dillon has seen his opportunity increase, though it mattered little as the backup failed to make the most of his opportunity. With Jones back to full strength in Week Nine, Dillon totaled 43 scoreless yards. The Packers offense has been struggling for much of the season, so getting Jones back on track would be massive.
Dillon and Moss are no longer starting-caliber fantasy assets and this is only the beginning. In a season that has been impacted by injuries unlike any other, four running backs are soon due back from injured reserve stints, which could eliminate the usefulness of several others. The Cardinals could welcome veteran James Conner back as early as next week, deeming Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram waiver wire-worthy. Khalil Herbert could also return in Week 10. D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson have each served as solid producers, which could mean a messy three-man committee is next for the Bears. The Dolphins are on bye next week but expect rookie De’Von Achane back on the field in Week Eleven. That would further damage the production of veteran Raheem Mostert and kill any hope for Jeff Wilson. Finally, Kyren Williams could return as early as Week Twelve, and both Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman could be off the Rams roster entirely.
If you’ve been counting on any of these fill-in backs in recent weeks, be ready for the next moves as these injured backs return.
Quick Hits:
Bijan Robinson is just another frustrating Falcon thanks to his head coach. With his frustrating usage plans and snide press conferences, Arthur Smith is becoming the most hated man in fantasy football.
Jahan Dotson is bouncing back strong after a poor start to the season. He’s put together back-to-back games as a top-ten receiver.
Zach Charbonnet continues to steadily eat into Kenneth Walker’s workload. The rookie is my favorite dynasty buy right now, though his price is quickly increasing.
Tony Pollard has been a major disappointment this season. After a strong Week One performance, he’s been the RB24 since. Pollard is still the RB10 based on our latest ADP, but he doesn’t belong in the top twelve based on his age and production. Serious sell candidate.
While Stroud soars, Bryce Young threw three picks on Sunday. The supporting cast is the worst in the league but we have to be worried that Young could simply be a bust.
Let’s hope the Rams get Matthew Stafford back after their bye. That offense was pitiful in Week Nine…Rashee Rice is on the verge of a breakout but is being valued like he already has.
Cam Akers reportedly suffered a torn Achilles. If true, he is essentially worthless in dynasty. If you can’t hold him on IR, simply drop him.
Cedric Tillman took over the role formerly manned by Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s a dynasty add if somehow on the waiver wire.
Demario Douglas is the Patriots WR1 moving forward.
Taysom Hill is inevitable.
The Raiders had the feel of a new team but Davante Adams had the stat line of past weeks.
Dallas Goedert will miss some time with an arm injury. Jack Stoll is the next man up though he’s not likely to be a fantasy factor.
Tee Higgins is fully back. Hopefully you bought low.
Will Levis is for real. He’s here to stay.
FOR YOUR EYES ONLY
The longtime DLF readers might remember this from my time penning the weekly DLF Dynasty Newsletter. Essentially, this area will offer me an opportunity to share whatever dynasty-related topic is at the front of my mind this week.
People love rankings. I’m referring specifically to dynasty rankings but this is really true of rankings of any kind. A list of rankings is easily digestible and easily picked apart. Whether you’re looking for a quick answer or you just want to pick a fight, rankings are for you.
While fantasy football rankings will always be the most popular part of any content offering, they are an imperfect tool. It is so easy to second guess rankings and I could make daily adjustments to my dynasty rankings because of this. Fantasy managers approach rankings in different ways and with varying purposes. Knowing that rankings can be both a trade chart and a draft cheat sheet at the same time makes the ranking process even more challenging.
I recently received a trade offer in one of my main dynasty leagues that had me questioning and adjusting my rankings. On a contending team, I was offered Austin Ekeler for Alvin Kamara. I don’t need to explain the recent history of these two players. You already know that there is a rather large value gap between the two. Each missed time early this season, Kamara with a league-imposed suspension and Ekeler with an injury. When on the field this year, Ekeler has struggled to match his production from the past two seasons while Kamara is making last season look like a disappointing fluke.
What should’ve been a slam-dunk accept for my team had me second guessing. Both players are 28 years old, so that was not really a factor in my decision. Ultimately, I decided that it was Kamara that I wanted more for the remainder of this season. This was a stark reminder that my rankings needed to be updated. Like other DLF rankers, along with the large majority of dynasty managers, my rankings suggested that Ekeler was the play here.
With my running back rankings, my longtime strategy has been to value young elite backs in the top tier. That currently includes Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. Next, I want older elite backs, which means Christian McCaffrey. Ekeler was once in this but has recently dropped due to his injury concerns and slip in production. Next, I want younger, high-upside backs. There are many of those currently, including Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, and rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane. Any of these could be candidates to leapfrog McCaffrey and move into the top tier. After those three groups, I try to value the remainder of the running backs, which is also the majority of them, in a one-year window, not assuming production or value beyond this season. I will say that age is still a tie-breaker and younger players who could eventually occupy those upper tiers get steadily moved up my rankings.
Whether you create your own rankings or rely on the rankings of myself or others, I strongly recommend you consider how running backs are valued in comparison to one another and other positions.
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