Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 12

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

DYNASTY FIVE

Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off of another week of NFL action.

Kyren Back in Action

After missing the past four games, running back Kyren Williams was back on the field for the Rams. He couldn’t have asked for a better “welcome back” than the Cardinals’ defense. Entering Week Twelve, Arizona had allowed a league-high 13 top-24 performances to backs along with 26.8 fantasy points per game, the third-worst in the league. Even in his first game back, Williams was an obvious fantasy starter. No one expected this performance though. Williams dominated the Cardinals and made up for some struggles in the Rams’ passing game. Running for 143 yards along with 61 receiving yards and two touchdowns made Williams the RB1 for the week in the best game of his young career. Williams has now played seven games this season and he’s finished as a top-ten fantasy scorer in five of those contests. Only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Travis Etienne have more than five top-ten games this season.

For dynasty managers, Williams presents a difficult case when it comes to assessing his value. Not only does he lack ideal draft capital, but he also was a non-factor as a rookie. It’s impossible to argue with his production though and while he did fall down dynasty rankings and in the NFL Draft after a poor Combine performance, he was once viewed as a potential top-three back in his class. Williams is the RB26 in our November ADP and I expect him to be a significant riser in next month’s data, potentially combing into the top-20 backs. There’s no reason to believe the Rams won’t continue to roll with Williams as their lead back, even into next season.

Love to Reed

Not so long ago, I used this space to write about the struggles of Jordan Love and the Packers’ young offense. November was kind to the Pack as they won three of four games, including the Thanksgiving Day upset of the Lions. Love’s weekly fantasy rank has improved in each of the past five games (QB18, QB15, QB13, QB9, QB5 pending Monday Night Football) and he’s now up to four QB1 games this season. In his fourth season in the league, this is obviously Love’s first chance to be the starter and see consistent playing time. If Love was producing this exact stat line in his rookie season, dynasty managers would be ready to value him as a QB1.
One Packer who is an actual rookie and making an impact is receiver Jayden Reed. Reed was coming off back-to-back WR11 performances and found the end zone again in Week 12. He’ll likely finish this week as a high-end WR3, giving him six games this season as a fantasy starter (top-36 receivers.) In a crowded and competitive wide receiver room, Reed leads the team with 497 yards.

JSN Up, DK Down

The Seahawks and 49ers had the stage to themselves on Thanksgiving night and the Seattle offense laid an egg in a huge divisional matchup. Especially disappointing were the Seahawks’ veteran receivers. DK Metcalf led the team with nine targets but caught just three balls for 32 yards. Tyler Lockett was slightly worse, totaling 30 yards on his three grabs. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, prematurely labeled as a bust earlier this season, led the team with 41 yards on two receptions. While JSN was certainly a slow starter this year, he has closed the gap in recent weeks.

Check out the production breakdown for the past five games.

Player	FF Pts	Snaps	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Tyler Lockett	67.6	193	39	27	286	2
DK Metcalf	61.1	205	48	21	341	1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	47.3	172	25	18	233	1

 

As expected, the veterans lead Smith-Njigba is essentially all categories. It is noteworthy though that while Metcalf has 33 more snaps than the rookie and has been targeted nearly twice as much, the differences in the production numbers are relatively narrow. Back in September, our pre-season dynasty ADP showed that Smith-Njigba was being valued as a WR1, just ahead of Metcalf. That shifted once the season began, but look for the rookie to be back on top and valued ahead of his veteran teammates in December’s ADP, and moving forward.

Dak Dominates

Another week, another amazing performance from the Dallas Cowboys offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott. On Thanksgiving, facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses, Prescott predictably destroyed the Commanders, passing for 331 yards and four scores. He’s currently the QB3 on the week with one game left to play. If Prescott can hold onto that ranking through Monday Night Football, it would be his fifth straight game as a top-three fantasy scorer. No other quarterback in the league has more than three top-three finishes this season. What makes this hot streak even more impressive is Prescott’s slow start. After five weeks this season, Prescott was the QB21 and had not finished higher than QB17 in any week. Since Week Six, he’s averaging over 31 fantasy points per game, nearly three points better than any other signal caller. We have not seen a significant impact on Prescott’s dynasty value through this production surge, suggesting he’s a reasonable trade target for contending teams in need of quarterback help.

Steelers Make Changes

The Steelers made headlines following their Week Eleven loss to the Browns, finally parting ways with offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The offense had struggled throughout Canada’s tenure and the only real surprise was how long it took the loyal Pittsburgh ownership group to send him packing. In 43 regular season games under Canada, the Steelers offense totaled 42 passing touchdowns. Second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett infamously has just one career game with multiple touchdown passes and as the national broadcast pointed out multiple times on Sunday, the Steelers offense had not cleared 400 total yards in their past 59 games.

Under a new playcaller, that long streak ended Sunday as the Steelers took care of an ailing Bengals team, though not in dominating fashion. Pittsburgh won the game 16-10 but Pickett still didn’t throw a touchdown. Promised playing time spikes for Jaylen Warren and George Pickens didn’t come to fruition. The only real change was the reemergence of tight end Pat Freiermuth, who set new career highs with nine receptions for 120 yards. This breakout performance likely had more to do with the poor Bengals’ defense, which has allowed a league-high eight TE1 games, than any coaching change on the Pittsburgh sideline. Ultimately, the change on the coaching staff was long overdue but we may not see a significant impact in player production until next season, at the earliest.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

The longtime DLF readers might remember this from my time penning the weekly DLF Dynasty Newsletter. Essentially, this area will offer me an opportunity to share whatever dynasty-related topic is at the front of my mind this week.

Last week, I was tagged in a tweet from my friend Geoff Lambert and it really got me thinking about the current 2023 rookie class…

As far as Year 1 production for dynasty leagues, could this be the best year top to bottom in the last 20 years?
Stroud, Puka, Gibbs, LaPorta all Top 10

Achane, Bijan, Dell, Kincaid, Addison, Flowers, Reed, Downs, are weekly starters

Rice, JSN, Michael Wilson, Musgrave,…

— Geoff Lambert 🄶 🄵 ² (@GeoffLambert77) November 22, 2023

In short, Geoff is wondering if we are currently viewing the best rookie class of the past two decades. Given the impactful rookie classes of the past ten years, including 2014, 2017, and 2020, I am not even close to crowning this year’s version the best group.

This did cause me to dig into top performances of this year and years past to try and put into perspective just how good this class has been. Let’s start here. Rookies currently hold the positions of QB5 (CJ Stroud), RB9 (Bijan Robinson), RB10 (Jahmyr Gibbs), WR9 (Puka Nacua), TE3 (Sam LaPorta) and TE9 (Dalton Kincaid.) Never in NFL history have six rookies finished among the top twelve scorers at their respective positions and only once (1998) has each of the four positions included a rookie.

Dynasty managers have responded accordingly, as these players have jetted up our ADP, along with our own DLF rankings. Per November ADP, Stroud and Anthony Richardson are both top-ten dynasty quarterbacks, Robinson and Gibbs are top-five running backs with De’Von Achane not far behind at RB8. There are five rookies among the top 28, including Jordan Addison (WR11), Nacua (WR14), Smith-Njigba (WR19), Zay Flowers (WR21), and Josh Downs (WR28), with Tank Dell sure to crash that party in our upcoming data release. Finally, rookies make up one-third of the current dynasty TE1 group with LaPorta (TE1) and Kincaid (TE5) being joined by Luke Musgrave (TE10) and Michael Mayer (TE11.)

While 2023 feels like an extreme case of rookie love, for all the right reasons, we do see signs of this every year. What makes it unique is the value roller coaster this class endured on their way to the league. Thanks in large part to the years of hype surrounding Robinson, this class was viewed as the best in years, a game-changer in dynasty leagues. And then the collective dynasty community all seemed to sour on the group at the first sign of struggle. Players once locked in as first-round picks struggled, the receiver depth was lacking and there was confusion as to who was the real QB1 or TE1 in the class. All of these factors led to dynasty managers and analysts bashing the class and selling off picks not named Bijan. I’m sure there are many regrets now.

This should all be another reminder to avoid making harsh generalizations about a rookie class before they even make it to training camp and there should never be a year in which picks are a “must-sell.”

Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 12