Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 12

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 11 QB1s

It took more than half the 2023 season but we finally got the breakthrough game from Trevor Lawrence. After tossing two scores and running for two more, Lawrence finished as the overall QB1 for the week. This was the first time this season Lawrence had exceeded 20 fantasy points. Last week, I pointed out what a great matchup the Commanders were for quarterbacks, but still couldn’t recommend rookie Tommy DeVito as a starting option. This was one of those cases where we should’ve continued to chase the matchup. DeVito shredded the Washington defense, throwing for nearly 250 yards along with three scores.

Season-Long QB1s

Week 11 brought almost no movement at all among the top twelve fantasy quarterbacks this season. Brock Purdy climbed two spots to the QB9, surprisingly just above Patrick Mahomes. Overall, this is the exact same dozen quarterbacks as last week.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

After getting destroyed by DeVito, the Commanders have now allowed nine QB1 games this year and are a weekly must-target regardless of the opponent. This week, that’s an easy choice as Dak Prescott and the Cowboys host the Commanders on Thanksgiving. Look for Prescott to get some fantasy teams off to strong starts this week. The Bears are next, giving up seven QB1 games on the season, though they are actually middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to the position. Still, Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs is a worthy fantasy starter this week. The Chargers have actually allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and this week face Lamar Jackson after losing Joey Bosa last week.

Other quarterbacks with solid matchups include CJ Stroud (vs. JAX), Gardner Minshew (vs. TB), and Josh Allen (vs. PHI.)

The Ravens remain the toughest matchup for opposing signal callers, having allowed just one QB1 game on the year and also limiting foes to just 15.5 fantasy points per game, the lowest in the league. That’s all bad news for Justin Herbert, though last week, Herbert had success against another strong pass defense in Green Bay.

The Panthers (vs. Will Levis), Browns (vs. Russell Wilson), Chiefs (vs. Aidan O’Connell), and Steelers (vs. Jake Browning) are all matchups to avoid this week. That should be easy to do given that list of quarterbacks.

©Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Running Backs

Week 11 RB1s

Thanks to a pair of receiving touchdowns, Saquon Barkley bounced back with his best performance of the season, tallying 30 fantasy points and an overall RB1 game. That’s Barkley’s first time scoring as the RB1 since Week One of last season. Much of the rest of the RB1 list looks like the previous list with backs Jaylen Warren, Jahmyr Gibbs, Gus Edwards, Brian Robinson and Devin Singletary all staying hot. Tony Pollard scored a touchdown for the first time since Week One and crept back into the RB1 range.

Season-Long RB1s

There was a ton of shakeup among the season-long running back scorers this week. Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Zack Moss, and Derrick Henry all fell off the list, replaced by Gibbs, Joe Mixon, Gus Edwards, and Breece Hall. Brian Robinson continued his surprising play and is now the RB4 on the year. Robinson has more receiving yards in the past two games than he had in the first 21 games of his career.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals have given up 13 top-24 performances to running backs this season, the most in the league. That poor run defense could serve as a nice welcome back for Rams back Kyren Williams, who is expected to return to the lineup after a multiple-week absence. I would not hesitate to insert Williams back into my lineups immediately.

The Broncos (vs. Jerome Ford) and Panthers (vs. Derrick Henry) are the two teams allowing more than 27 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Other matchups to target this week include the Seahawks (vs. McCaffrey), Bears (vs. Alexander Mattison), Chargers (vs. Edwards), Raiders (vs. Isiah Pacheco), and Jets (vs. Raheem Mostert.)

The Eagles are the best rush defense in the league when it comes to fantasy scoring, giving up just four top-24 performances and the fewest fantasy points in the league. That does not bode well for James Cook as the Bills travel to Philly. The Browns (vs. Javonte Williams), Lions (vs. AJ Dillon), and Buccaneers (vs. Jonathan Taylor) are other difficult matchups for Week 12.

In addition to these teams, the other teams surrendering less than 17 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields are the Saints and Falcons and those NFC South foes face off this week. Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara are still fantasy starters, but expect lower fantasy scores than normal from that pair of top backs.

Wide Receivers

Week 11 WR1s

Zay Jones was back for the Jaguars and that’s all it took for Calvin Ridley to get going. At least that’s been the narrative. Regardless of the reason, Ridley finally delivered after many frustrating weeks of poor play. Ridley caught a pair of touchdowns and claimed the overall WR1 spot. It was another week with a serious impact from rookie receivers and Tank Dell (WR3), Jayden Reed (WR11), and Puka Nacua (WR12) all delivered. With veteran Cooper Kupp dealing with another injury, Nacua should be in for a production boost in the coming weeks.

Season-Long WR1s

The red-hot CeeDee Lamb is now up with the WR3 on the season and he and AJ Brown swapped positions this week. Veteran Davante Adams is back in the WR1 range, replacing Michael Pittman.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Eagles might be tough against the run but continue to give it up to opposing receivers. Philadelphia has now allowed 15 top-24 fantasy games to receivers, three more than any other squad. It’s time for an eruption game from Bills receiver Stefon Diggs.

In addition to the Eagles, four other teams are giving up more than 40 fantasy points per game to enemy receivers. That includes the Chargers (vs. Zay Flowers), Commanders (vs. Lamb), Giants (vs. Demario Douglas), and Buccaneers (vs. Pittman.)

The Broncos and Browns are at the bottom of the receiver list, having allowed three and four top-24 fantasy games, respectively. This game also has the lowest over/under of the week, meaning fantasy managers should stay away from this matchup, when possible. Courtland Sutton and Amari Cooper have been solid fantasy starters this season but should be benched this week.

Other teams giving up less than 29 fantasy points per game include the Panthers (vs. DeAndre Hopkins), Packers (vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown), Cowboys (vs. Terry McLaurin), and Jets (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle.)

Tight Ends

Week 11 TE1s

The week started out on a sour note for the tight end position as Ravens’ star Mark Andrews suffered a season-ending injury last Thursday night. The list of tight ends that we could rely on each week just got shorter. That list does include Dalton Schultz, who has been on a hot streak after a slow start to the year, along with Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride, who are in the midst of breakout seasons.

© Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Season-Long TE1s

George Kittle rode his overall TE1 week to help him climb from TE6 to TE3, while Kincaid jumped a couple of spots to TE8. Injured Dallas Goedert finally fell off the list, replaced by David Njoku.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Falcons, Bengals, and Texans have each given up seven TE1 games. This week, that puts Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill (vs. ATL), Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN), and Evan Engram (vs. HOU) on the target list. Other teams that are matchups to chase at the tight end spot include the Broncos (vs. Njoku), Chargers (vs. Isaiah Likely), and the Eagles (vs. Kincaid.)

The Bills have still not allowed a TE1 game this year and with Goedert still out of action, that streak should continue. The Browns (vs. Adam Trautman) and Titans (vs. Tommy Tremble) have been tough against the tight end position as well and with this week’s matchups, I don’t see that changing. Finally, the Cowboys host Logan Thomas and the Commanders, so this might not be the week to use the veteran in fantasy lineups.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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