Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven
Life in the NFL happens fast. Injuries come and go, but a lot can change in the dynasty valuation of a player in a matter of weeks. This series discusses key details in a player’s current recovery tract and injury projections for the implications on that players’ dynasty value. Be sure to check out Kyle Trimble’s weekly injury round-up for immediate injury information.
Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
After the initial chaos and 2024 bust-labeling, McCaffrey has been progressing well through each stage of his rehab in preparation to return from his Achilles tendinitis. The 49ers continue to eye week 10 for his return, which comes directly after their bye week. The great news is, unless reports have been stifled or hidden, he has not had any further setbacks or issues over the last two weeks of aggressive rehab and progressions. No flare-ups means the likelihood of return increases. If you have McCaffrey, I hope you didn’t panic and you held. With how Jordan Mason has played, there is a high probability that McCaffrey walks right back into his goal line role, nearly all of the receiving work, and then mixed in to short down yardage work. I anticipate them using Mason as the bruiser and McCaffrey as the all-around weapon.
Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
Don’t forget about Pacheco this season. He reportedly also had mild ligament damage, but the Chiefs have still been eyeing a return in the week 10 to 13 range. He remains an intriguing buy low in case he returns on the earlier side and winds up producing for fantasy playoffs, but the risk is high for production dip as well as volume limitations. I wanted to discuss him here because Kareem Hunt has been running well and folks are starting to discuss him as a league winner, but Pacheco could put a damper on that. Caution on buying both, even in dynasty as the Chiefs had been tied to high-tier running backs in the off-season and could look to find a new top back next season in free agency or the draft.
Rashee Rice, WR KC
We finally have details on Rice’s surgery: LCL repair, distal hamstring tendon repair, and posterolateral corner reconstruction. Essentially, his knee was very unstable. From surgery date to week one of the 2025 season marks 11 months, and I anticipate his recovery requiring at least nine months. Lateral mobility, change of direction, and acceleration to deceleration to acceleration will be key factors in his return to performance. Another key variable is that he likely faces a lengthy suspension, which could turn his return timeline from injury into a more favorable production expectation once he hits the field. Caution if you are acquiring, but if there are any injury discounts available, it is a good time to pursue a deal.
Rashid Shaheed, WR NO
A surprise to many managers after he was able to play through week six, Shaheed was evaluated for a knee injury that wound up turning into a meniscus repair surgery, effectively ending his 2024 season. The good thing with these surgeries is that they provide very good long-term outcomes and preserve the cartilage and shock absorption in his knee, which is important considering he is only 26 years old. The bad news is that he will no longer provide us fantasy points for the 2024 season, which is an absolute travesty, especially in the Scott Fish Bowl. I would expect to see Shaheed performing football-related activities by May or June next year and will be on my “Injury Buy” list in dynasty leagues. Go acquire him at a discount and be patient for his 2025 production.
Nico Collins, WR HOU
Off to an elite start to the season, unfortunately Collins reinjured a prior hamstring strain and found himself being placed on injured reserve. The bad news is that he has a past history of multiple soft tissue injuries, including prior hamstring strains, which could continue to be problematic in the future. However, the concern on this end does not reach the same level as Christian Watson‘s or Tee Higgins‘s hamstring concerns in my opinion. When he does return, which could be in the week 10 to 13 range, he should be able to continue to put up elite numbers with CJ Stroud throwing him the ball. Given his utilization and per route production, I would absolutely acquire with any injury discounts and I would even consider still buying high as if he were not injured. He is elite.
Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Speaking of injury risk, Nacua entered the season with high injury risk and even injured his right knee in camp prior to the season. He reinjured it, this time spraining his PCL, which can often lead to lingering discomfort and joint laxity throughout the majority of the season. We saw a similar situation play out with Ezekiel Elliott in his last season with Dallas prior to leaving for the Patriots. The hope here is that the sprain was closer to mild than moderate and heals with rest and recovery while being placed on IR. An update on his status has him missing another few weeks, seemingly eyeing the week 10-11 range for return. The longer Nacua is out, the more chances Jordan Whittington has to impress the staff with his similar skill-set to Nacua. Once Nacua returns, given his extension injury history and violent play style, I would consider selling high if a buyer comes around once he is back on the field. Pivot to a less risky asset.
TJ Hockenson, TE MIN
At the time of writing this, Hockenson has practiced in a limited capacity twice so far. He will unlikely play in week seven, with a chance to debut in week eight or nine. I believe the Vikings will operate in a similar fashion as Cleveland has with Nick Chubb, allowing him multiple weeks to adjust to NFL practices with full participations before making him a game-day active. His return will happen soon. Be patient and anticipate a production increase within a few weeks.
Hopefully this information is helpful in terms of dynasty outlook on these injuries. Hang in there, week two was fairly brutal in terms of high-tier players suffering injuries. There is a long season ahead of us and I will continue to cover the Dynasty Injury Forecast every three weeks in-season. Feel free to follow me @jmthrivept for injury content.
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Ten - November 9, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven - October 19, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Three - September 21, 2024
