Monday Mocks: Final 2023 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

Ryan McDowell Posted On January 8, 2024

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.

The 2023 NFL regular season is now officially over, which feels like an ideal time to put a bow on this year’s rookie class. When dynasty managers hold their rookie drafts during the offseason, there is an innate understanding that the annual first-rounds will be comprised of major hits and disappointing busts once we actually see these players on an NFL field. That means player value, especially early in their respective careers, is always changing. With all of that said, this year feels like another extreme of what has been present in past years. Those first-round busts have lost essentially all value and the surprising late-rounders are now being valued as first-round dynasty startup picks…well, at least one of them.

Here’s my final 2023 rookie mock draft, based on superflex league settings. Just for reference, I’ve also included each player’s preseason rookie ADP.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 – CJ Stroud, QB HOU (Preseason ADP = 1.04)

In offseason rookie drafts, Stroud was part of the threesome of top quarterbacks that the dynasty community debated all season. Ultimately, in most drafts, as well as rookie ADP, Stroud settled in as the QB3. While the others struggled, Stroud flourished immediately, reeling off three QB1 finishes in his first four games. That high level of production continued, including a four-game stretch in which Stroud passed for more than 300 yards and accounted for multiple scores in each contest. Stroud has quickly climbed the dynasty rankings, and is currently the QB7 according to our rankings. I’d personally value him as highly as the QB4 and I think he’s the easy choice here at 1.01 in this 2023 rookie draft do-over.

1.02 – Anthony Richardson, QB IND (1.02)

There are multiple players who have a case for the 1.02 spot in this mock draft, each possessing high-upside and having already established near-elite production. With the superflex format, I lean towards the quarterback position and few in the league have the talent of Richardson. The rookie played only four games before suffering a season-ending injury and missed snaps in three of the four games he started. He was still able to produce weekly fantasy finishes of QB4 (Week One) and QB2 (Week Four). Richardson’s four rushing scores were good for seventh among quarterbacks, despite the limited time on the field. Even more encouraging was Richardson’s solid performance as a passer, which included just one interception on the year. The injuries are concerning, yet Richardson is still the QB9 in DLF rankings with certain top-five upside.

1.03 – Bijan Robinson, RB ATL (1.01)

Since last February, the first month for 2023 rookies to be included, Robinson has held the RB1 position in our monthly startup ADP. Being valued that highly before he even attended the NFL Combine, let alone stepped on the field, Robinson was the far and away consensus 1.01 pick in rookie drafts, even in the superflex format. Robinson obviously had a very good season, which included 13 games as a top-24 fantasy scorer at his position. Doubts about Robinson have increased though, mostly related to (now former) Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and his usage of Robinson and other highly-drafted playmakers. It’s worrisome enough that Robinson has now fallen to the RB2 spot in our upcoming January dynasty ADP. In my rankings, and this mock, he remains the RB1 with hopes of the new coaching staff taking advantage of the superstar’s talent.

1.04 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET (1.05)

I mention the word “upside” in my articles because it is so important. It’s what we should be chasing in dynasty leagues, especially when it’s combined with youth. That’s the ultimate prize in a dynasty league. Gibbs entered the league with many questions, mostly centering around his size and “workhorse” ability. Gibbs’ season got off to a rough start as he was just the RB26 after four weeks and then missed the next two weeks with an injury, sending dynasty managers into panic mode. Once he returned to the field in Week Seven, we saw a different player. Since then, only Christian McCaffrey and Rachaad White produced more fantasy points than the Alabama product. While he mostly shared the Lions’ backfield with veteran David Montgomery, it didn’t matter. The talent showed through, as did the upside. Gibbs produced six games as a top-three fantasy scorer, tied with McCaffrey for the most in the league.

1.05 – Sam LaPorta, TE DET (2.12)

This represents the first of many shakeups when comparing current values to those of the preseason. Although it has been steadily changing in recent years, the old narrative that rookie tight ends simply don’t produce has impacted the value of many talented players, including LaPorta and others entering this season. The rookie from Iowa wiped out that thinking immediately, as he finished as the TE8 in the season opener against the Chiefs. LaPorta went on to produce a total of ten TE1 games, including three as the overall TE1 for the week, and finished as the TE1 for the season based on total fantasy points. LaPorta not only cracked the top-tier of tight ends in both dynasty rankings and ADP, he’s ascended all the way to the top, currently valued as the top tight end in the game. In this mock, he narrowly edges out the next player, mostly due to positional scarcity.

1.06 – Puka Nacua, WR LAR (5.07)

Stroud established himself as a top-five dynasty quarterback. Robinson and Gibbs might be the two most valuable backs to roster in dynasty leagues. LaPorta soared up to the TE1 position. Even with all of that, there was not a better or more surprising story than the out of nowhere breakout of Nacua. I know many who were strong supporters of Nacua, including myself and my fellow DLF Podcast hosts, Matt and Dan. That makes it even more surprising that he was a mid-fifth round pick in rookie drafts. If you were fully invested in Nacua in the offseason, you’ve already enjoyed a massive ROI. In our upcoming January dynasty ADP, Nacua has a new personal high mark as the WR7 and tenth overall. Nacua finished with nine games as a top twelve fantasy receiver and ended the fantasy season as the WR5.

1.07 – Jordan Addison, WR MIN (1.07)

We got glimpses of that all-important upside from Vikings rookie Addison as he finished as the overall WR1 in two different weeks. The problem was the lack of consistently high production. Those two games were Addison’s only ones scoring among the top twelve fantasy receivers. Addison did benefit from the lengthy absence of his superstar teammate Justin Jefferson, though maybe not as much as expected. In the seven games Jefferson missed, Addison averaged 3.3 more fantasy points per game. More impactful to Addison, in a negative way, was the loss of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Addison’s average fantasy point production dipped by 5.9 per game once Cousins was out of the lineup. Ultimately, Addison flashed enough for his value and draft position to remain unchanged compared to the preseason.

1.08 – Zay Flowers, WR BAL (1.10)

It should be mentioned that the five receivers in this pack could really be ordered in any way. That’s how close they are following their rookie season. Next up though is the Ravens’ top receiver Flowers. The WR23 in DLF’s rankings, Flowers finished the year as the WR25 in fantasy production, including six games as a top-24 weekly scorer. At just 5’9” and 182 pounds, there were questions about Flowers being treated as the WR1 by an NFL team, not to mention the expected competition on his own team. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Rashod Bateman continued to struggle this season and Mark Andrews’ season ended early. Flowers was a consistent weekly producer and showed he could be Lamar Jackson’s top target moving forward.

1.09 – Tank Dell, WR HOU (3.11)

Another major surprise, and major riser, was the undersized Dell. Regardless of his 5’8” and 165-pound frame, Dell picked up right where he left off in college, creating game-breaking plays on a routine basis. Dell produced six games as a top-24 fantasy scorer, including weekly finishes of WR1 (Week Nine) and WR3 (Week Eleven) overall. Dell eclipsed 100 yards three times and scored seven times despite missing six games with injuries. Like others on this list, that injury bug will be the primary factor moving forward in determining Dell’s value because otherwise, he has shown he belongs among the top 25 receivers in the dynasty game.

1.10 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA (1.06)

We knew this was coming. When the Seahawks selected Ohio State’s Smith-Njigba, his short-term value took an immediate hit. After all, not only was he competing with veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for looks, but he was doing so on a run-first offense. That’s exactly how the season played out. While Smith-Njigba’s usage numbers saw slight and steady increases over the season, he was almost always the third option. He was never able to post a WR1 game and finished as a WR2 just three times. We did see flashes of that upside and with Lockett over 30 years old, his time in Seattle could end at any time, which would obviously open more playing time for JSN. For now, Smith-Njigba is a faller, but maybe not as far as expected.

1.11 – Jayden Reed, WR GB (2.10)

Although he showed promise early in the year, Packers receiver Reed took over in the back half of the season. Since Week Ten, Reed was the WR10, averaging over 17 fantasy points per game. Reed did take advantage of the seemingly constant injuries to presumed WR1 Christian Watson. In the six games Watson missed, Reed averaged 16.7 fantasy points, a 5.6-point increase over games with Watson on the field. Reed is the WR34 in our dynasty rankings, but has jumped up to the WR26 in our January ADP. With lingering questions about Watson’s health, I expect Reed’s overall dynasty value to continue to climb through this offseason.

1.12 – De’Von Achane, RB MIA (1.12)

Perhaps no player in the rookie class showed a higher ceiling at times this season than Achane, the Dolphins’ undersized back sparked much debate last offseason. Achane’s value went wild following a 200+ yard, four-touchdown performance against the Broncos in Week Three. That wasn’t the end of it though. The explosive back would go on to post three more games as a top-five back over the next month, which was enough for some to vault him up to the dynasty RB1 spot. An inconsistent role and nagging injuries were the story of the back half of Achane’s season, which has pushed his value back down the board. Just as he was entering the year, Achane is a tough evaluation, due to both injury issues and his uncertain role in the Dolphins’ high-powered offense. Still, it’s impossible to keep him out of the first round, and this is the exact spot he landed in the offseason.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 – Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF (1.09)

2.02 – Rashee Rice, WR KC (2.06)

2.03 – Zach Charbonnet, RB SEA (2.01)

2.04 – Tyjae Spears, RB TEN (2.11)

2.05 – Josh Downs, WR IND (2.05)

2.06 – Will Levis, QB TEN (1.11)

2.07 – Bryce Young, QB CAR (1.03)

2.08 – Luke Musgrave, TE GB (3.04)

2.09 – Tucker Kraft, TE GB (4.07)

2.10 – Roschon Johnson, RB CHI (2.07)

2.11 – Quentin Johnston, WR LAC (1.08)

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.