2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round Three
The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year. This unique draft is designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. We drafted one player at a time and anyone at DLF could jump in (they just couldn’t go back-to-back with their picks). The top selection was the player in the top 36 who they believed carries the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. In other words, the last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas
Xavier Worthy
Jonathon Brooks
Ladd McConkey
Keon Coleman
Caleb Williams
Trey Benson
Ricky Pearsall
Jayden Daniels
Xavier Legette
Adonai Mitchell
Roman Wilson
Jaylen Wright
Ja’Lynn Polk
Drake Maye
Malachi Corley
Blake Corum
MarShawn Lloyd
JJ McCarthy
Jermaine Burton
Troy Franklin
Bo Nix
Devontez Walker
Ray Davis
Jalen McMillan
Bucky Irving
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Javon Baker
Ben Sinnott
Audric Estime
Isaac Guerendo
Will Shipley
There were a lot of changes when you look back to our pre-draft versions. If you missed those, make sure you check out Round One, Round Two and Round Three. With all that in mind, let’s get to it with the final round of our post-draft version. I’ll add the comments made with each pick. Round one can be found here and round two here but these were the results (most risky to least) as we get to the final twelve players, deemed as the safest in terms of draft capital you’ll need to use to acquire them.
ROUND ONE
1.01 = Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
1.02 = Drake Maye, QB NE
1.03 = Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE
1.04 = Xavier Legette, WR CAR
1.05- = Bo Nix, QB DEN
1.06 – Keon Coleman, WR BUF
1.07 = Brian Thomas, WR JAX
1.08 – Devontez Walker. WR BAL
1.09 – Jayden Daniels, QB WAS
1.10 Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
1.11 – Ricky Pearsall, WR SF
1.12 – Bucky Irving, RB TB
ROUND TWO
2.01 = Brock Bowers, TE LV
2.02 = Jermaine Burton, WR CIN
2.03 = Xavier Worthy, WR KC
2.04 = JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
2.05 = Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
2.06 = Roman Wilson, WR PIT
2.07 = Will Shipley, RB PHI
2.08 = Troy Franklin, WR DEN
2.09 = Caleb Williams, QB CHI
2.11 = Trey Benson, RB ARI
2.12 = Audric Estime, RB DEN
ROUND THREE
3.01 = Blake Corum, RB LAR
Comments from inside the War Room: Corum is dipping down to the safer side of this draft simply because you aren’t going to need to mortgage the farm to get him. There are legitimate questions about his upside but Sean McVay is notorious for making running backs valuable in fantasy football.
3.02 – Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
Comments from inside the War Room: I’m excited for him and the opportunity he has in Carolina but it is an offense that could be extremely underwhelming for years to come. Bryce Young didn’t do enough last year to show he can be an NFL quarterback. If he doesn’t turn it around, he could bring the whole offense down with him. Also, Brooks is coming off the ACL injury. Typically it takes running backs over a year from the injury to get back to 100% of what they were before the injury. Reports on his rehab are great, but we won’t know where he really is until we see him on the field.
3.03 = MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB
Comments from inside the War Room: While Lloyd could add some explosiveness to this backfield, the Packers are fresh off paying Josh Jacobs to be their lead runner. Bringing back a veteran like AJ Dillon also doesn’t help Lloyd much in the short-term. He rises (falls) on this list because the draft capital you use on him won’t be extreme, so he’s safer than most. Still, there’s some risk here.
3.04 = Ben Sinnott, TE WASÂ
Comments from inside the War Room: The likely third or fourth target on a run heavy team with a rookie QB could struggle to find enough production in year one to make sure he stays on your dynasty team in year two. However, the upside is very real.
3.05 = Ray Davis, RB BUF
Comments from inside the War Room: There are some holes in his profile and primarily a 24-year old rookie who played at 3 colleges across a 5 year college career is enough to be concerned about off the bat. Still, the talent and draft capital needed make him a safer pick than most.
3.06 = Isaac Guerendo, RB SF
Comments from inside the War Room: Great draft capital based on his college profile and landing on a 49ers team with minimal competition to develop into a top backup role behind Christian McCaffrey. You can easily get him in round three or four of rookie drafts, with solid upside in case of injury, providing cheap exposure to convert your draft pick into better future draft capital.
3.07 = Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE CAR
Comments from inside the War Room: Sanders has a chance to work his way into the lineup early, especially on passing downs. There are a few issues, though. Sanders dropped all the way down to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. His poor numbers at the NFL combine didn’t help. The Panthers offense was awful last year, too. Still, they have a new coaching staff, which brings some hope that they can turn it around this season.
3.08 – Jalen McMillan, WR TB
Comments from inside the War Room: Did not grade out as a good prospect and I was surprised he went on Day 3. He’s going to need some help to see the field playing behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and I’m not even sure he’s better than Trey Palmer either. I just don’t see a clear path to production early but he still looks like a bargain.
3.09 – Javon Baker, WR NE
Comments from inside the War Room: Landed in a pretty open wide receiver room and tied to the exciting Drake Maye. The stink of the Patriots reduces his cost. An easy arbitration play on Ja’Lynn Polk, where you can draft him two rounds later, in round four of rookie drafts.
3.10 = Malik Nabers, WR NYG
Comments from inside the War Room: It’s rare to see wide receivers drafted in the top ten as “safe” picks because you’re going to need to use a high rookie pick to acquire them. However, Nabers looks destined for stardom and the Giants need him to be good right away. It’s just hard to see him being a bust.
3.11 = Rome Odunze, WR CHI
Comments from inside the War Room: There are some concerns about the weather and the fact he’s playing behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen but Odunze’s skill set should allow him to hit the ground running. He’s just too good to be bad.
3.12 = Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR ARI
Comments from inside the War Room: It’s rare to see the highest rated position player deemed as the safest bet in the draft. Still, here we are as the team from DLF just simply don’t see any holes in his game or his new situation to be even remotely concerned about using a top pick to get him. He may never be the same player as his Father but the floor is pretty high here.
That’ll do it for this year’s DLF rookie bust draft.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
