2024 Rookie Bust Mock Draft (Pre-Draft Edition): Round One
The rookie bust mock drafts are one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year, so why not make them even weirder this off-season!?! These unique drafts are usually designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. Today, we’re going to start a series looking at this 2024 rookie class prior to the NFL Draft. One player was drafted at a time based on their risk of being a bust due to their likely draft capital or ADP in an upcoming dynasty rookie draft. The top selection was the player in the top 36 who could carry the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their future draft capital or ADP. The last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk, so this is not a ranking list at all. Players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas
Xavier Worthy
Adonai Mitchell
Troy Franklin
Caleb Williams
Ladd McConkey
Trey Benson
Keon Coleman
Jonathon Brooks
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
Jaylen Wright
Braelon Allen
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Blake Corum
Xavier Legette
Ja’Lynn Polk
Malachi Corley
Ricky Pearsall
Roman Wilson
Devontez Walker
MarShawn Lloyd
Jalen McMillan
Will Shipley
JJ McCarthy
Bucky Irving
Audric Estime
Bo Nix
Michael Penix
Ray Davis
Isaac Guerendo
Brenden Rice
Let’s get to it with round one, considered the riskiest based on the draft capital you may need to use to acquire them.
1.) Brock Bowers, TE UGA
Hear me out. I think Bowers is an elite-level prospect who should be a really dynamic dynasty performer. However, I’ve also been around long enough to see players like Kyle Pitts or Eric Ebron get overdrafted dramatically based on the draft capital used on them. The notion that the tight end position is also some kind of wasteland where only a few players are difference makers has to also be in question. Players like Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce, and even Pitts are still good players to own, so it’s not as if it’s Kelce and everyone else at this point any longer. To get Bowers, you likely need to use a first rounder in the top half of the draft – rare air for a tight end. To me, it’s just too risky as we see the tight end position still as being relatively unpredictable.
2.) JJ McCarthy, QB MICH
McCarthy has gone from a “good little player” to a quarterback who is potentially going to be taken in the top five of the NFL Draft. This is going to dramatically change his ADP and vault him up the draft ladder. I like McCarthy but not at the price it’s going to take to acquire him in an upcoming rookie draft. I just see teams looking at him and instead of saying he’s a round peg to fit in a square hole at the top of the NFL Draft, they’re convincing themselves to whittle that peg and make it fit. I’d rather wait and get someone like Bo Nix or Michael Penix later in a rookie draft at a price that’s more palatable.
3.) Troy Franklin, WR ORE
I like his talent but I just don’t see him being a player worth a top-8 pick in a rookie draft. His off-season has raised some red flags and while he had some really big games, he’s clearly far behind the more elite pass catchers in this draft. I’d much rather take a shot at one of the top running backs in the draft at that point in a rookie draft. He’s a good player but I also think he has some things to prove in order to be successful in the league. Too rich for my blood right now.
4.) Jayden Daniels, QB LSU
Much like Anthony Richardson last year, Daniels has an amazingly high ceiling. The numbers he put up at LSU are ridiculous when you consider the level of competition he faced on a weekly basis. However, it seems his floor is also pretty low. His draft stock is likely going to put him on a roster that doesn’t have a lot of talent but forces him to start in week one (see Young, Bryce). If Daniels is truly a better runner than passer and needs a lot of time to refine his game, he’s going to need to deal with a lot of adversity effectively.
5.) Isaac Guerendo, RB Louisville
Unlike a lot of players on this list, you’re not going to need to use a lot of draft capital on Guerendo, who is most likely going to be a third round rookie pick. However, he’s on this list because he’s a relatively unknown prospect who is rising very quickly (perhaps too quickly) based on his NFL Draft Combine performance. We’ve seen a lot of players who get overdrafted in fantasy and reality based on how they do in the underwear olympics, so there should be some caution used here. If he rises to a second round rookie prospect, I’d have a hard time biting.
6.) Ladd McConkey, WR UGA
Again, this list isn’t full of players I don’t like. I actually think McConkey is a good draft prospect. However, the comparisons to Puka Nacua are premature and he’s risen all the way up into the top ten. This is another spot where I’d look to add one of the top rookie running backs and fade McConkey unless he lands in a spot I just love.
7.) Blake Corum, RB MICH
I just don’t watch the tape on Corum and think “second round rookie pick priority.” He’s a solid runner and has a high floor but I don’t see him being a player who is a true difference maker. If he ends up on a roster like Dallas, I’ll change my mind. However, I think he’s being forced in the draft a bit based on the lack of really good running backs this year. There was a reason why so many running backs got paid this off-season and that shouldn’t be lost on dynasty managers.
8.) Xavier Worthy, WR TEX
I’m not saying the new King of the 40-yard dash (4.21) is going to be the next John Ross. However, I’m not saying he won’t, either. I like Worthy’s game for sure but he’s risen all the way up into the top six and that could simply be a knee-jerk reaction to a Combine performance for the ages. Buyer beware a little here.
9.) Adonai Mitchell, WR TEX
Again, the higher the pick, the higher the risk regardless of the player involved. While players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers look like sure things, the next tier offers some more volatility. Mitchell was good but did he benefit from playing opposite Worthy? Worthy was good but did he benefit from playing opposite Mitchell? There’s also a question of his focus and consistency that needs to be fixed. He’s a solid first round prospect but it’s going to take some courage to take him in the top seven.
10.) Roman Wilson, WR MICH
This one is all about volatility. Wilson is ranked anywhere between #14 and #34 in our rankings and that tells the story. Nobody really knows what to think of him. Some believe he’s a solid second round rookie draft prospect who should fit right in on an NFL roster. Others think his game just doesn’t translate well to the next level. We’ll see soon enough but Wilson seems like one of the riskier picks and one who could bust easier than most.
11.) Audric Estime, RB ND
Estime’s NFL Draft Combine performance was a disaster as his athleticism rank was 24th at the position (according to NFL Next Gen Stats) and he posted a Dad-runner-like 4.71 in the 40-yard dash. Combine this with a lack of pass catching prowess and he seems like a player who could hang on a roster but also one who doesn’t seem to offer anything dynamic. He’s still a third round rookie pick at the moment but looks like a player who has a really high chance of not making it in the league.
12.) Bucky Irving, RB ORE
To me, Irving looks like a Dameon Pierce-like talent. He also looks like a player projected to be a middle of the pack day three pick. I like him as a bit of a sleeper pick but not in the top-30 where people have him at the moment. As with many of these players, the landing spot is going to be critical for us to accurately value him.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
