2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round Two
The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year. This unique draft is designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. We drafted one player at a time and anyone at DLF could jump in (they just couldn’t go back-to-back with their picks). The top selection was the player in the top 36 who they believed carries the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. In other words, the last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas
Xavier Worthy
Jonathon Brooks
Ladd McConkey
Keon Coleman
Caleb Williams
Trey Benson
Ricky Pearsall
Jayden Daniels
Xavier Legette
Adonai Mitchell
Roman Wilson
Jaylen Wright
Ja’Lynn Polk
Drake Maye
Malachi Corley
Blake Corum
MarShawn Lloyd
JJ McCarthy
Jermaine Burton
Troy Franklin
Bo Nix
Devontez Walker
Ray Davis
Jalen McMillan
Bucky Irving
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Javon Baker
Ben Sinnott
Audric Estime
Isaac Guerendo
Will Shipley
There were a lot of changes when you look back to our pre-draft versions. If you missed those, make sure you check out Round One, Round Two and Round Three. With all that in mind, let’s get to it with round one of our post-draft version. I’ll add the comments made and a few of my own with each pick. Round one can be found here but this was the result.
1.01 = Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
1.02 = Drake Maye, QB NE
1.03 = Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE
1.04 = Xavier Legette, WR CAR
1.05- = Bo Nix, QB DEN
1.06 – Keon Coleman, WR BUF
1.07 = Brian Thomas, WR JAX
1.08 – Devontez Walker. WR BAL
1.09 – Jayden Daniels, QB WAS
1.10 Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
1.11 – Ricky Pearsall, WR SF
1.12 – Bucky Irving, RB TB
2.01 = Brock Bowers, TE LV
My thoughts: No thoughts from Inside the War Room as I made this pick myself. Anyone who has followed us during the pre-draft process is likely tired of hearing me say this but any tight end taken in the top five of a rookie draft is a huge risk. If we lived in a world where there were only one or two elite tight ends, I could see it. However, the emergence of players like Sam LaPorta and TJ Hockenson are now starting to make the tight end spot less of a strategic advantage. In addition, Bowers doesn’t have a great quarterback throwing to him, has to fight with Davante Adams for targets early in his career, and Michael Mayer isn’t going to just become a bench player. Bowers is an extraordinary athlete but we haven’t seen a tight end taken this highly in a rookie draft really justify the draft capital used.
2.02 = Jermaine Burton, WR CIN
Comments from inside the War Room: “Dude is incredibly talented but with so many red flags, he could be out of the league before training camp.”
My thoughts: I don’t think I’d go that far but there are certainly concerns about Burton. While it seems Tee Higgins isn’t long for Cincinnati, he is still there for now and that pushes Burton down a notch or two. It’s also tough to ever really rely on a team’s WR2 for consistent production unless they’re uber-talented (like Higgins) and the Bengals already have an alpha in Ja’Marr Chase.
2.03 = Xavier Worthy, WR KC
Comments from inside the War Room: “Wide range of outcomes, with a disappointing final two years at Texas. Landing on the Chiefs in round one adds pressure, on a team with recent draft failures in round one (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) and at the same position (Skyy Moore). Year one could be tough as a similar skillset to Hollywood Brown limits his role.”
My thoughts: I can see the logic here as well. Worthy clearly has world class speed and can take the top off the defense but I’m more concerned about the Chiefs becoming more and more conservative the past couple of years. It’s easy to look at this pick and assume they’re just going to sling the ball deep again like they did with Tyreek Hill but do they really have to? A dominant defense has given Kansas City the luxury of being more conservative and they aren’t just going to start taking risks for fun.
2.04 = JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
Comments from inside the War Room: “This pick has been getting hailed as the greatest pick in draft history yet the peripherals would tell you this is a middling player being pushed up because of a great situation. McCarthy has a long way to go. The floor is very low and handing over the keys to an incomplete/project QB is never a winning bet. I’m out.”
My thoughts: I highly doubt I end up with many McCarthy shares when all is said and done. To me, the importance of the position is convincing teams he’s better than he really is. He went from a fringe first rounder to a player who was conceivably considered as high as #2 in the NFL Draft.
2.05 = Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
My thoughts: This was my selection as well. My concern with Wright is the landing spot. Sure, Raheem Mostert won’t be around for long but De’Von Achane looks like the real deal. When you consider the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and OBJ to feed. I just don’t know where the touches come in the short or long-term.
2.06 = Roman Wilson, WR PIT
Comments from inside the War Room: “I expect Wilson to contribute to an NFL roster but will he for fantasy? Not sure what the ceiling is here. Perhaps in the good player/not a fantasy asset tier.”
My thoughts: The Steelers have a history of making mid-round receivers into stars but they’ve also had their share of failures. I honestly just don’t know how good Wilson really is. I think he belongs right here in the middle of this draft as a player who won’t cost you that much but also has a decent chance of busting.
2.07 = Will Shipley, RB PHI
Comments from inside the War Room: “A passing down specialist lands in an offense behind Saquon with a quarterback who doesn’t check down very often.”
My thoughts: That point is hard to argue. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are always going to be a run-first team and I’m not sure where Shipley gets his targets with the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith there for the long haul.
2.08 = Troy Franklin, WR DEN
Comments from inside the War Room: “As much as I loved Franklin before the draft and love the landing spot paired back with Bo Nix, we still have to be realistic about his draft capital. Something caused him to fall to Day 3, and if we haven’t had such recent examples of Day 3 success like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua, Franklin would be buried in our rankings and rookie drafts. He needs to be an outlier to be a success at his ADP as a Day 3 wide receiver.”
My thoughts: I’ll make this pretty simple. I was surprised to see Franklin drop as far as he did but you have to consider every team passed him multiple times – that should tell you something.Â
2.09 = Caleb Williams, QB CHI
Comments from inside the War Room: “Caleb may be ‘generational,’ but QB prospects are 50/50 at best so it’s hard for any QB to fall too much further.”
My thoughts: I’m not even convinced Williams is “generational.” The comparisons to Patrick Mahomes are premature and even if he is that talented, he’s going to have deal with the elements in Chicago. I like Williams but I wouldn’t have him in the safe range, either, especially since you likely have to use the 1.01 in a Superflex league to get him.
2.10 = Malachi Corley, WR NYJ
Comments from inside the War Room: “Four-year player out of Conference USA. Labeled the ‘next Deebo Samuel,’ an unfair comparison for a unique skill set. What is the ceiling in an offense with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson?”
My thoughts: I like Corley but it’s hard to see just what kind of player he’s going to be. Aaron Rodgers is notoriously hard on rookies and by the time he’s trusted, Rodgers could be done and we have no idea who could be next at the helm of a franchise notoriously poor at unearthing quarterbacks.
2.11 = Trey Benson, RB ARI
Comments from inside the War Room: “Not every volume running back in college becomes a great running back in the NFL, but nearly every great NFL running back was a volume back in college – Trey Benson was not that. 176 touches is his career high in a season and while he landed in a great spot to potentially see a workhorse role in 2025 and beyond, he might just not be suited for that much work, plus he’s a third round pick and with next year’s RB class, who knows if he’s even guaranteed the starter job when Conner is gone… IF Conner is even gone.”
My thoughts: I like Benson quite a bit but I think some are assuming Conner is going to be somehow replaced on day one – I don’t see that happening after he was so effective last season. Benson is a good long-term stash but patience may need to be exhibited here.
2.12 = Audric Estime, RB DEN
My thoughts: He falls (rises) on this list simply because the draft capital you need to use to acquire him is minimal. Still, nobody wants to just waste draft picks and Estime is far from a sure thing. He’s one dimensional and his NFL Draft Combine exposed his physical limitations. Earning any carries behind Javonte Williams and even Jaleel McLaughlin is going to be tough.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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