Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2024 Mid 2nd
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus 1-4 Picks
2023
- 2.05 – Josh Downs, WR IND
- 2.06 – Rashee Rice, WR KC
- 2.07 – Roschon Johnson, RB CHI
- 2.08 – Marvin Mims, WR DEN
2022
- 2.05 – Desmond Ridder, QB ATL
- 2.06 – John Metchie, WR HOU
- 2.07 – Isaiah Spiller, RB LAC
- 2.08 – Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
2021
- 2.05 – Rondale Moore, WR ARI
- 2.06 – Michael Carter, RB NYJ (now ARI)
- 2.07 – Kadarius Toney, WR NYG (now KC)
- 2.08 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET
2020
- 2.05 – Michael Pittman, WR IND
- 2.06 – Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
- 2.07 – Zack Moss, RB BUF (now IND)
- 2.08 – Laviska Shenault, WR JAC (now CAR)
The mid-second round is an area where you can find some great value. While most of the time the first round tends to go chalk, the second round is where you can find some variance in pick selection. The past few seasons some league winners came from the second round. Last year it was Josh Downs, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Tyjae Spears, and Sam LaPorta, who were all second-round picks in superflex dynasty drafts. The year before that it was Rachaad White, Dameon Pierce, and Trey McBride, with McBride and White crushing it for their owners this season.
There will be players available in the middle of the second round that will be mainstays in your lineup for years to come like Pittman, Aiyuk, St. Brown, Downs, and Rice. The key is to find those treasures and avoid the bums that also inhabit the second round like the Toney’s and Shenault’s of the fantasy world.
I love to target mid-second-round picks in fantasy drafts. These picks tend to be devalued compared to late-first-round and early-second-round selections. It’s a good spot to sell off aging players for younger versions or to grab players you like that might be undervalued by other owners.
Now that you have these picks you want to make sure to pick the correct players. As a member of Dynasty League Football, you already have a vast amount of knowledge at your fingertips. This should give you a leg up on your leaguemates when it comes to these rookies. After the NFL Draft happens in April, make sure to look back at the early rankings to make sure you aren’t passing up a potential stud like Pittman or St. Brown for a guy who got high draft capital but kind of came out of nowhere like a Jonathan Mingo did last season. It’s brutal to think people took Mingo over Downs, Rice, and Jayden Reed. Don’t let that happen to you. There is always a bit of luck involved when drafting, but make sure to do the work and don’t let landing spots talk you out of players you really liked heading into the draft. Check out the DLF draft guide that comes out in the spring to help you make sure you hit on this second-round pick.
2024 Potential Options
- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
- Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
- Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia
- Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky
- Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina
- Trey Benson, RB Florida State
- Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin
- Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas
- Blake Corum, RB Michigan
- Bucky Irving, RB Oregon
- Bo Nix, QB Oregon
- Michael Penix, QB Washington
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE Texas
The depth of wide receiver in this draft class is unbelievable. Many mock drafts have as many as seven wide receivers possibly going in the first round of the NFL Draft. There will likely be many receivers drafted in the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft. There is going to be a lot of talent available in the second round of fantasy drafts as has been the case the last several years of the draft, especially at the wide receiver position.
With really no consensus on the top running backs in this draft class, it will be interesting to see where they end up going in fantasy drafts. Currently, all the RBs are falling into the second round of mock drafts, but I would guess that one of the top guys will end up going at the end of the first round or beginning of the second round. Fantasy managers could end up getting their top RB in the draft class in the middle of the second round of drafts, which is usually unheard of. I’m excited to see who falls into these four draft slots as I like all five of the RBs listed above for different reasons.
Depending on where Bo Nix and Michael Penix are selected in the NFL Draft will have them moving way up or down in fantasy drafts. If either player is a first-round selection, then they will jump into the first round of fantasy drafts. But if they end up being Day two picks in the NFL draft, I think the mid-second round is where they will slot in for fantasy purposes. If they get drafted to a team with an aging veteran like the Rams’ Matt Stafford, the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, or the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers this might be a golden opportunity to grab them.
The guy I want to keep an eye on is tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders from Texas. The mid to late second round is where studs McBride and LaPorta went the last few seasons. This might be a prime spot to snag the clear TE2 of this draft class behind Georgia TE Brock Bowers in leagues that have a high-scoring tight end premium.
Trade Value
While early second round draft picks can be expensive to trade for, mid second round picks can usually be had at a much more reasonable price. Knowing what you can possibly move to get into this spot in the draft is important. But if your player gets snagged up before you can get him, or you don’t think he will make it to you there are players available to move off of the pick. Which ones make sense? Let’s take a look at some possibilities. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
2.05
• David Njoku, TE CLE
• Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
2.06
• Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
• Calvin Ridley, WR JAC
2.07
• Geno Smith, QB SEA
• Dallas Goedert, TE PHI
2.08
• Josh Downs, WR IND
• David Montgomery, RB DET
Obviously, first-round picks are going to have a lot more value so acquiring those is ideal. Mid second round picks might be hard to move for a player straight up in a lot of circumstances. Pairing these picks with older players to get a younger player might be the move. Also trading older players for multiple second-round selections is a route I would explore. For example, on the DLF Trade Analyzer, the 1.12 pick has a value of 203.9. Meanwhile, mid-second picks are valued at around 126.5, making these picks much easier to trade for rather than to trade away.
I love the idea of moving on from some of these aging veterans, like Calvin Ridley or Geno Smith for a mid second round pick. I can grab a possible QB in Nix or Penix to replace Smith. Also, I can grab one of these young WRs to replace Ridley. If you hit on a St. Brown or Pittman, you will be ecstatic.
I think moving off of Rhamondre Stevenson or David Montgomery for a top-four RB in this rookie group is enticing. There are going to be guys who are talented enough to be first-round rookie selections that drop to this point in the draft, and I want a shot at them. I always want to get younger at RB whenever I can, because the value of RBs can drop off a cliff at any moment.
If you want to move a tight end like David Njoku or Dallas Goedert, I wouldn’t be mad at you. Njoku had a breakout season last year with the Cleveland Browns. He is still only 28, but will he continue to rise or tail off? Goedert has struggled to find consistent targets for the Philadelphia Eagles. His injury history is also a bit of an issue. Moving either of these TEs to get younger with Ja’Tavion Sanders would look attractive to me.
Dynasty Recommendations
2.05 – The middle of the second round is where I want to focus on talent. I’m not worried about positional needs at this point in the draft. I want to grab the best player on the board to have the best chance of hitting on this pick. If that is the RB2 or RB3 or the top WR to slip, I’m grabbing them here.
2.06 – If the QBs get to you here in a superflex or two-quarterback leagues, this is where I am eyeing them. Remember when Jalen Hurts was drafted in the second round by the Eagles but fell to the mid second round in most drafts because people were worried, he would sit behind Carson Wentz for at least a couple of seasons. Nix or Penix could be drafted behind an aging QB, making this a great value for them.
2.07 – If there is a top four to five running back still on the board at this point, I will be tempted to grab him. While the RB position has been diminished in the NFL, they are still very relevant in fantasy football. And as we have seen over the last couple of seasons, all a player needs is an opportunity. There have been plenty of RB committees lately, as this is becoming the new trend in the league, but these players still can be valuable. The best time to acquire RBs in fantasy is when they are rookies and before they break out.
2.08 – In a TE premium league this is where I am looking to take Sanders, especially if I’m a tight end needy team. The guy has a lot of skills that will transition well to the NFL level. He has star potential as a tight end. If I don’t go Sanders, this is where I am looking at grabbing my favorite WR left on the board. Who that might be is up to you. A guy like Leggette, who was a one-year wonder as a senior, or Corley, a small school guy who can do a little bit of everything, are players I can see myself taking here. While both of these guys have major bust potential, their possible high upside might be worth taking the risk on at this point in the draft. McConkey would be a really nice get here, but I have a feeling he will be moving up draft boards and would most likely need to be taken at pick 2.05 if he is still there.
- 2025 Post-Draft OFF/IDP Combined Rookie Mock Draft: Part One - May 19, 2025
- Analysis of 2025 Rookie Running Backs: Final Grades - May 9, 2025
- 2025 NFL Draft: Post-Draft IDP Rookie Mock - May 1, 2025
