Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2024 Mid 1st
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be looking at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus Picks 5-8
2023
- 1.05- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
- 1.06- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
- 1.07- Jordan Addison, WR MIN
- 1.08- Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
2022
- 1.05- Treylon Burks, WR TEN
- 1.06- Jameson Williams, WR DET
- 1.07- Chris Olave, WR NO
- 1.08- Kenny Pickett, QB PIT
2021
- 1.05- Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
- 1.06- Najee Harris, RB PIT
- 1.07- Zach Wilson, QB NYJ
- 1.08- Travis Etienne, RB JAC
2020
- 1.05- JK Dobbins, RB BAL
- 1.06- D’Andre Swift, RB DET
- 1.07- Cam Akers, RB LAR
- 1.08- Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
If you were to compare these groups of players with the ones in the pick 1.01-1.04 groups, the difference is night and day. It’s truly amazing the difference between the early first-round and mid-first-round. Every year the industry touts the incoming rookie class as “the deepest we’ve seen in ages”, and every year without fail it proves inaccurate.
The hit rate of gaining a fantasy asset that is going to hold or gain value is decent in the early portion of the first round. Sure, there are busts like Trey Lance, but these picks have proven to be remarkably predictable. The same cannot be said for the mid-first-round picks.
It’s interesting to note the values of the consensus picks listed above. As far as the 1.05 picks go, only one of them currently has more value (Jahmyr Gibbs, 656.6) than the 1.05 in the 2024 class (437.9). The average value of the last four consensus 1.05’s is 248.3 which means that those picks are now worth an average of 189.6 less than they were worth on draft day.
When we look at the last four 1.06s, only one of them (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 419.3) is currently worth more than that slot in the 2024 draft (400.2).
The trend takes an interesting turn at the 1.07’s, where both Chris Olave (653.7) and Jordan Addison (452.2) are currently worth more than the 1.07 in 2024 rookie drafts. Even with a 50/50 hit rate over the past four seasons, the four players drafted in those slots are still worth 79.9 less than that pick this year. So, even with two massive hits out of four picks, the players in this range are simply less valuable long-term than the draft picks.
Closing it out is the 1.08 consensus picks. Only Travis Etienne (434.4) currently holds more value than his pick did on draft day (324.7).
What this means is that despite all the hype and excitement for this range in the draft, you essentially hold a quarter chance of drafting a player who will be more valuable than their draft pick.
For me, this means the obvious thing to do with these picks is to trade down for a lower pick and additional assets. While these picks are regarded as “can’t miss” prospects, they are no safer than the picks at the end of the first round.
2024 Potential Options
- Jayden Daniels, QB LSU
- Malik Nabers, WR LSU
- Drake Maye, QB UNC
- Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
- Rome Odunze, WR Washington
- Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
- Brian Thomas Jr, WR LSU
- Keon Coleman, WR Florida St
Above, I stated I prefer to trade down. I wholeheartedly believe that is the play in this range, but don’t do it now. These draft picks are only going to gain value the closer we get to rookie drafts.
The bonus to the wait-to-trade approach is that if you wait and trade your pick when you are on the clock it will not only be more valuable, but it allows you to see who is left on the board at that time.
Above is a list of eight players who could be on the board at your pick in the middle of the first round. Which one of these is still available would greatly change my strategy. I’m a firm believer in the old saying “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” which means I prefer to trade the pick for some of the veterans in the same value range (listed below), however, waiting until you are on the clock allows you to see if your preferred player falls to you.
For me, if Jayden Daniels or Malik Nabers falls to me, I’m going to use my pick to draft “what’s in the bush”, but if they are off the board by the time I select, I prefer my “bird in the hand” to any of the other six rookies.
Be sure to check out our 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings.
Trade Value
Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you find yourself not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or what it will take to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you really like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
I have given an option for each position, since each roster has unique needs and may be looking to pivot to a different position. This is not an extensive list, but rather the closest matched player at each position. To paint you a better picture of what the situation could look like, I have included the consensus player for that pick to better illustrate if I prefer the rookie pick or veteran at that draft slot, as well as the values from the Trade Analyzer.
1.05 (437.9) / Malik Nabers, WR LSU
- Justin Fields, QB CHI (413.0)
- Travis Etienne, RB JAC (434.4)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA (419.3)
- TJ Hockenson, TE MIN (423.1)
1.05 (400.2) / Rome Odunze, WR Washington
- Justin Fields, QB CHI (413.0)
- Kyren Williams, RB LAR (410.8)
- DK Metcalf, WR SEA (404.3)
- TJ Hockenson, TE MIN (423.1)
1.05 (362.4) / Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
- Justin Fields, QB CHI (413.0)
- Kyren Williams, RB LAR (410.8)
- Zay Flowers, WR BAL (382.8)
- Trey McBride, TE ARI (346.8)
1.05 (324.7) / Keon Coleman, WR Florida St
- Jared Goff, QB DET (375.5)
- Saquon Barkley, RB NYG (350.6)
- Deebo Samuel, WR SF (354.3)
- Mark Andrews, TE BAL (371.2)
At the 1.05, we see the reason why I said to wait until you are on the clock to trade the pick. If I’m up at 1.05 and Nabers is on the board, I’m going to set a land-speed record racing to the draft board to select him. I’ve seen him go as high as 1.02 and I don’t expect him to be available this late in rookie drafts.
In nearly every situation shown above, I would prefer to take the veteran player over the rookie pick as long as I’m not in a rebuild. If I’m at the beginning of a rebuild, I simply do not want running backs and would prefer the picks.
The most interesting thing that should be noted is that Justin Fields is available for most of these picks. If I need a quarterback and have any mid-first-round pick, I am jumping for joy if I can acquire Justin Fields. He may not be the perfect quarterback and has struggled at times, but in a superflex league, quarterback is king!
This portion of the draft is easy for me. If Nabers falls to me, I will take the gamble on him, otherwise it’s time to trade the pick for a proven and less risky asset.
Dynasty Recommendations
1.05 – This is superflex, so if by some miracle Jayden Daniels falls to you, you must draft him. That scenario is extremely unlikely, as is Malik Nabers falling to you. If I’m drafting at 1.05 and the consensus picks are on the board and I’m forced to make a pick, I’m leaving the decision to my positional need. If I need a quarterback, Drake Maye is the pick. If I’m set at quarterback, then I’m selecting Rome Odunze.
1.06 – The two picks in the middle of round one are easily my least favorite. In most cases, the top three quarterbacks and top three receivers have gone off the board and I’m left staring down the barrel of drafting the TE1 Brock Bowers. I am firm in my belief that you should never use a first-round rookie pick on a tight end and this is a nightmare scenario. If you’re lucky, someone will have taken Bowers already, in which case you can simply draft whichever of the big three receivers and quarterbacks has fallen as a result, if Bowers is the player who falls to you, I easily prefer to trade down in the round to select a receiver in the next tier while acquiring additional draft capital.
For every Sam LaPorta (who wasn’t a first-round rookie pick) we see, there are a dozen Dalton Kincaids and Kyle Pitts‘ who don’t return value even if they are “generational tight ends”.
1.07 – By this point in the round it becomes “dealer’s choice”. You are likely to see three quarterbacks, three receivers and Brock Bowers off the board which means the play is to select whichever tier two receiver you like best. For me, that’s Oregon’s Troy Franklin. This range also sees the Texas receiver duo of Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy selected frequently as well as Florida State receiver Keon Coleman.
1.08 – The same strategy for 1.07 applies to 1.08, except with fewer options. I’m not considering any of the running backs, nor am I considering the next tier of quarterbacks or tight ends. The name of the game here is “Pick a receiver”. The best advice I can give you in this draft slot is to research the receivers in this tier. There are 4-5 options that are all in the same range including the receivers listed at 1.07 as well as Brian Thomas Jr. So before you make your pick at 1.08, head over to our 2024 Rookie Early Look series and familiarize yourself with these receivers, you will thank me later when you are able to key in on your receiver of preference.
- Aaron St. Denis: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 15, 2024
- NFL Scouting Combine: IDP Dynasty Winners and Losers - March 5, 2024
- Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2024 Mid 3rd - February 25, 2024
