2023 Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC East
This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
AFC East Outlook:
Buffalo Bills
Following the long reign of the New England Patriots, the upstart-turned-juggernaut Bills claimed the AFC East division three years running. And despite the turnover on offense from the 2022 season, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect crown #4.
Quarterback Josh Allen is the rug that ties the room together. Over the past three years, he’s finished as the overall fantasy QB1 twice and the QB2 once. In 2019 he finished as the QB9, cementing his stature as arguably the most valuable dynasty asset under center. Though Allen derives a wealth of his fantasy points on the ground (over 3,000 rushing yards and 38 rushing scores through five years), he really took off when star receiver Stefon Diggs arrived in 2020. The former Viking has since eclipsed 100 receptions each year and finished 2022 as the PPR WR4 with 1,400+ yards and 11 scores.
But after that… it’s kind of meh, right?
Gabe Davis spiked one week with 171 yards and two scores but only had two other weeks over 80 yards (though it’s been reported he was fighting through injury). Khalil Shakir could only corral ten receptions in his rookie season, making for an awfully uninspiring WR3. Deonte Harty is a munchkin but had a solid 2021 in New Orleans before having his 2022 wiped out. Justin Shorter brings some intrigue as a big-bodied fifth-round pick with former 5* recruiting capital, but the rest of the depth chart is scary thin. A surprise DeAndre Hopkins signing would sure help this group.
The real intrigue in the aerial attack comes from first-round pick Dalton Kincaid. Likened to Zach Ertz, it’s possible he could emerge as an immediate weapon, though its notable rookie tight ends tend to struggle. Kincaid might be a stash more for 2024, with holdover Dawson Knox potentially functioning as the second or third weapon in the passing game. Knox has yet to truly break out but has scored 15 times over the past two years.
Leading rusher Devin Singletary is now a Houston Texan, meaning second-leading rusher Josh Allen (yes, the quarterback) will likely take even more prominence. The hope is second-year, second-round pick James Cook will pick up some slack, but similar to Singletary is undersized and may be best utilized in a pass-catching role. Patriot transfer Damien Harris brings some intrigue as a big body with proven goal-line prowess. At the same time, fantasy zombie Latavius Murray lurks in the background, waiting to cause upheaval yet again. Nyheim Hines is best left on waivers.
Miami Dolphins
Last year Miami crashed the playoff party, very nearly upsetting Buffalo in the Wild Card round. Do they have a chance of repeating this feat?
In short, the Dolphins will go as far as Tua Tagovailoa takes them. Last season he mixed mostly good with some bad, with the ugly being the scary series of concussions that sidelined him and apparently had him contemplating retirement. He was the QB8 in terms of PPG while tripling up his touchdowns to interceptions but offering nothing with his legs. Mike White and Skylar Thompson are solid backups.
Fortunately for Tagovailoa, outside of the Bengals, the Dolphins perhaps represent the best receiving corps in the NFL. Tyreek Hill has secured at least 1,100 yards in five of the last six years and needs no further introduction as a speed merchant and alpha pass catcher. Teammate Jaylen Waddle took a leap in his sophomore season and actually increased his production by over 300 yards despite nearly 30 fewer receptions. Jumping to over 18.0 YPC will do that! The rest of the crew is mediocre at best, though Cedrick Wilson at least had some moments with the Cowboys.
The Dolphins tight end group is the equivalent of the gif of a dumpster fire floating down a flooded road. None of these guys may be rosterable. Coach Mike McDaniel just doesn’t seem to care for the position as a potential pass catcher but rather values blocking. Tyler Kroft has some mild intrigue, but I’m out on all these guys.
The running back room brings yet more speed! Devon Achane makes Hill look like a giant but can scoot if he gets into the open field. Ditto Mostert who has speed and size and showed efficiency in 2022 (4.9 YPC) but is also 31 years old with a history of missing time. Jeff Wilson, the bruiser of the crew, maybe the best-equipped to function as a bell cow and could be the savvy buy. None of the others interest me, and they might not make the team.
New England Patriots
The 2022 Patriots were the fantasy equivalent of the Chappelle’s Show skit “When Keeping It Real Goes Wrong.” Matt Patricia and Joe Judge? Sure, why not! Not surprisingly, the offense was hot garbage but hope to regroup in 2023.
After a solid rookie season, quarterback Mac Jones took a significant step back last season. His numbers were down across the board, leaving dynasty owners to wonder whether he regressed, the offense lacked weapons outside of the departed Jakobi Meyers, or the coaching truly wrecked the offense. Rookie Bailey Zappe showed some pluck but was undone in a game versus Chicago, and that probably isn’t the answer.
Replace Meyers with JuJu Smith-Schuster, and you’re looking at a pretty similar receiving corps. Smith-Schuster has some name-brand recognition and nearly posted 1,000 yards last season. He should offer similar production to Meyers. DeVante Parker is now 30, and his career will probably be summarized by his fantastic 2019 season and little else. He’s perhaps a late-round best-ball stash at most. I’m more intrigued by Tyquan Thornton, the sophomore second-round pick with both size and speed. Kayshon Boutte was a dynasty darling, but I might actually rather have Demario Douglas, as he can play the slot.
The tight end position is intriguing. I’m willing to give Mike Gesicki a pass in a Dolphins offense that ignored the position, and he’s finally now playing with Bill O’Brien, who recruited him at Penn State but departed to coach the Texans before Gesicki stepped foot on campus. There’s a reasonable scenario where he leads the team in targets or is at least a consistent fantasy producer. I like Hunter Henry, but he’s now 28 years old and has been held between 478 and 652 yards for the past six seasons. Anthony Firkser had some juice a few years back but isn’t on the dynasty radar any longer.
Rhamondre Stevenson is easily the best dynasty asset on the roster and should be the biggest fantasy producer on the team as a dual-threat running back with room to improve at the goal line. I’m more bearish on James Robinson. He may play better one more year removed from injuries, but two teams said “no thanks” to his services last season. Pierre Strong Jr. fascinates me the most out of this group, as he has good size and speed and can function in the passing game. No, I’m not buying the yearly “but it’s totally Ty Montgomery‘s time!” hype.
New York Jets
Did anything noteworthy happen in the Big Apple this off-season? No? Okay then, let’s get to it.
Oh, right, that guy! Mr. Discount Double-Check! We’re not going to (seriously) bury the lede here; the Jets saw their window and opted to trade for the Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There’s no debating Rodgers’ CV – since taking over as the starter, he’s only had three years with double-digit interceptions, with career numbers including 65.3% completion, 7.7 YPA, a nearly 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and some occasional spunk with his legs. Rodgers should be a mammoth upgrade over what the Jets had under center last season, but it’s notable that he’s 1) now 39 years old and 2) had a bit of a down year in 2022.
Zach Wilson is another story altogether. The truth is, he’s probably bad. But in a superflex league, I’d contemplate sending some nibbles for a late third or fourth-round pick, though I doubt the owner would sell for that.
Rodgers will be throwing to Garrett Wilson, a certified stud as a rookie. If Rodgers even approaches 75% of his prime, Wilson is going nuclear. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the surefire #1/#1a receivers in dynasty but don’t be surprised if Wilson pushes for #3 later this year.
Past that, well… it’s the 2022 Green Bay Packers that Rodgers famously complained about! Allen Lazard is probably the WR2, but an uninspiring one at that. He nominally led the Packers in receiving last year, but not in the type of decisive manner one would expect when his primary competition consisted of rookies who missed time. If Corey Davis survives cuts, he’d actually be my preference as a similar big body who has suffered through some injuries and bad quarterback play. I’ll pass on Mecole Hardman, and if he outperforms expectations, then bully for my league-mates. None of the rest of the bunch intrigue me.
The tight end room is better than Miami’s; I’ll give them that. If one of Tyler Conklin or CJ Uzomah were on another roster, I’d be interested. Rodgers can feed his tight ends in the red zone, so they may be worth dart throws in best ball. Jeremy Ruckert caught one pass in nine games as a rookie and is now playing with a signal caller who famously requires the trust of his players. Thanks, but no thanks.
Breece Hall is up there with Wilson as a sublime dynasty asset, but he comes with injury issues after tearing his ACL as a rookie. Before that, though, he averaged nearly 6.0 YPC while securing nearly three receptions per game at 11.5 YPR. If healthy, he’s a top-five dynasty ball carrier. Michael Carter fell off hard in 2022, and I’d be tempted by Zonovan Knight, who appeared to become the apple of the coaches’ eyes down the stretch. However, fifth-round rookie Israel Abanikanda could render both Carter and Knight extraneous. But given his draft capital, I just have a hard time paying the rookie much mind.
Positional Group Rankings:
Quarterbacks:
- Bills: A+
- Jets: B+
- Dolphins: B-
- Patriots: C-
Allen is the King of Kings here and a surefire top-three pick in dynasty superflex leagues. The Jets’ grade of B+ is really more of a hat tip to Rodgers’ body of work. His age and recent mediocrity in 2022 keep grade inflation at bay. Similarly, Tagovailoa comes with his own concerns in the form of his injury history and, to date, relatively shallow body of work. If a “C” represents the average, the Pats are just below, as Jones has some things to prove.
This chart specifically went back to 2011 as it represented Rodgers’ best PPG performance of his career. It doubles as the best PPG value on the chart. The next best three come from Allen, who now clearly dwarfs the competition. Notably, Rodgers was closer to Jones than he was to Tagovailoa last season.
Running Backs:
- Jets: A-
- Patriots: B+
- Bills: C+
- Dolphins: C
You can throw out Wilson in 2019 and Mostert in 2021, as these were on precious few touches. As shown in the chart, in his rookie season Hall was well above the fold in rushing efficiency, which doesn’t begin to take into account his receiving prowess. Harris, again, is notable, but mainly due to his ability to score the ball. Cook showed some efficiency but on far fewer carries per game.
Wide Receivers:
- Dolphins: A+
- Bills: B
- Jets: B
- Patriots: C+
6, 2. 12, 8. No charts are needed. Those are the 2021/2022 PPR finishes for Hill and Waddle, respectively. Diggs is a beast, and Wilson is a stud in the making, but no other team in this division has anything remotely resembling the Dolphins’ one-two punch. New England has some intrigue but nothing in the way of an alpha receiver.
Tight Ends:
- Patriots: A-
- Bills: B+
- Jets: C-
- Dolphins: D-
I’m quietly bullish on the pairing of Gesicki and Henry. I think the former has some juice as a move tight end who’s now paired with a coach who can utilize his skillset. Here’s to hoping he can replicate his former glory from 2020 to 2021, where 31 of 38 games resulted in a TE2 finish or better (17 as a TE1 or better).
The Bills are as high as they are because Knox is steady, and Kincaid has the draft capital. There will be targets to go around. The Jets are slightly below average because they have a solid crew. Still, it’s decidedly a case where the aggregate is greater than the individual parts, which will likely be unusable on a weekly basis. For the Dolphins…is this actually kind? I’m treating this exercise where a grade of “C” is average, and the Dolphins are far, far from it. I’ll be intrigued to see if my fellow authors wind up with a lower-graded positional group!
Divisional Predictions:
MVP: Josh Allen, QB BUF
Come on. In this division, how could it be anyone else? Allen will be challenging Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts for signal-caller supremacy for years to come—no reason to get cute here. I’d add a graphic, but our friends at Pro Football Reference separate passing and rushing statistics. Instead, I’ll just say the following:
- Allen had the seventh-most passing yards and second-most (tied) passing touchdowns in the league in 202.
- Allen also had the 34th most rushing yards and 16th most (tied) rushing touchdowns.
Throw out his rushing, and he’s still the QB13 (with other quarterbacks maintaining their rushing stats). Throw out his passing, and he’s the RB39. It’s not impressive, but that’s just what you’re tacking onto his passing prowess. Allen will be a stud for years to come.
LVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB NYJ
Sorry, not sorry. Rodgers was quietly mediocre last year – maybe it was his surrounding cast, but when did that matter before? He has a stud to throw to in Wilson, but then a lot of question marks. More importantly, if Hall returns healthy, he may very well be the focus on offense, and a nasty defense may obviate the need for aerial pyrotechnics. Capped off by the fact that he offers little to nothing with his legs, and I could see Rodgers’ real-life contributions eclipsing what he does for fantasy box scores.
Most Improved: Mike Gesicki, TE NE
Low-hanging fruit? Probably. Doesn’t mean it will taste any less sweet.
Gesicki has never been a world-beater, but he’s shown TE1-level upside at a position begging for it. If Geno Smith could win this by transitioning from the bench to a quality starter, why not Gesicki? Garrett Wilson would be another fine choice here, but that would be more of a case of the rich getting richer.
Biggest Steal: Pierre Strong Jr., RB NE
Stevenson can’t handle every touch, and there are question marks behind him. I’m not buying the Montgomery hype or a Robinson revival, and Strong acquitted himself well as a rookie in limited touches. He has reasonable fourth-round draft capital and a vacuum in front of him. There aren’t a ton of “swing for the fences” types in this division, so why not make a…Strong choice.
Biggest Bust: Devon Achane, RB MIA
As noted previously, Achane is something of a Lilliputian at 5’8 ½” and 188 pounds. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but he will need to mix big plays with passing game utilization to provide an immediate return. His collegiate stats show a player who only received a heavy workload in one season (2022), which doubled as what was easily his least efficient output in both the rushing and receiving facets of the game.
When it comes to an Achane rookie breakout, hey, I’m here for it. I don’t hate. But I have reservations about him sequestering enough of the workload from two consummate pros in Mostert and Wilson.
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