Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Mid 3rd
Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.
In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!
Historical Consensus Picks
2022
- 3.05 – Tyrion Davis-Price, RB SF
- 3.06 – Jelani Woods, TE IND
- 3.07 – Sam Howell, QB WAS
- 3.08 – Khalil Shakir, WR BUF
2021
- 3.05 – Kyle Trask, QB TB
- 3.06 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR SEA
- 3.07 – Davis Mills, QB HOU
- 3.08 – Tylan Wallace, WR BAL
2020
- 3.05 – Darrynton Evans, RB TEN/CHI
- 3.06 – Anthony McFarland, RB PIT
- 3.07 – Devin Duvernay, WR BAL
- 3.08 – Jacob Eason, QB IND/SEA/CAR/SF
Well, I honestly have little nice to say about this group of players. The entire 2020 group carries essentially no dynasty value whatsoever. Evans, McFarland, and Eason haven’t done anything in their NFL careers, while Duvernay is currently the WR99 and buried on the Ravens’ run-first offense. Additionally, the 2021 group is almost as weak, as Wallace and Eskridge have barely played, and Trask has zero career NFL snaps.
To find any value from this draft range, we have to look at Davis Mills from the 2021 class plus the entire 2022 group. Mills has started for the Texans for most of the previous two years, recording decent statistics despite playing on a putrid offense.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Of course, the Texans will almost certainly select a quarterback with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, ending Mills’s run as a starter. But, he had multiple sell windows to recoup a future second-round pick, so dynasty managers could’ve profited from Mills based on his original cost. Also, finding 26 starts from a quarterback is well worth the 3.07 in a superflex format.
Unfortunately, the 2022 group is difficult to judge based on their rookie years. However, I think it’s safe to say that Tyrion Davis-Price is a bust, considering every other running back succeeded in the 49ers’ offense while he played poorly. Additionally, the Christian McCaffrey trade leaves little room for anyone to contribute behind McCaffrey and top backup Elijah Mitchell.
However, Jelani Woods, Sam Howell, and Khalil Shakir flashed as rookies, giving me hope for 2023 and beyond. Woods flashed here and there as a rookie, and tight ends often take time to develop. Howell started the final game of the Commanders’ 2022 season, leaving him as the current starter heading into their off-season. I think he’s worth at least a bit more than the 3.07 price he cost in the rookie draft. As for Shakir, he failed to establish a consistent role, but I think he has potential in the Bills’ high-powered offense.
2023 Potential Options
- Hendon Hooker, QB Tennessee
- Dalton Kincaid, TE Utah
- Marvin Mims, WR Oklahoma
- Tyjae Spears, RB Tulane
- Tucker Kraft, TE South Dakota State
- Darnell Washington, TE Georgia
- DeWayne McBride, RB Alabama-Birmingham
- Rakim Jarrett, WR Maryland
To gather this list, I used DLF’s superflex rookie rankings for potential options that may be available in the mid-third round of rookie drafts. But it’s important to note how much values change from February to May, especially in the mid-third round. For example, looking at 2022’s four players, Woods and Davis-Price were barely on the NFL’s radar, and Howell was a consensus first-rounder in both rookie drafts and the NFL Draft. Only Shakir was anywhere near the value range, and even he was 36th overall in February’s 2022 superflex DLF rookie ADP.
Therefore, while I like some of the names on this list, especially Dalton Kincaid, Marvin Mims, and Tyjae Spears, it’s tough to see that these specific players will be available in the mid-third round. I highly doubt Spears will make it that far after his strong showing at the Senior Bowl, and Kincaid won’t fall into this range, given his first-round NFL Draft buzz. But overall, I love the depth of this rookie class, and I like the chances of finding a good player in the third round more than most years.
Trade Value
Let’s use the DLF Trade Analyzer to explore potential trade options for each pick!
3.05
- Alexander Mattison, RB MIN
- Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
- Dawson Knox, TE BUF
These veterans are almost spot-on compared to the 3.05. However, if forced to choose, I prefer Mattison over the rookie pick, as he has more value upside. The Vikings may release Dalvin Cook this off-season and sign Mattison as their starter, or Mattison could find a new team in free agency. As for Boyd and Knox, they both feel like roster cloggers, as neither has any actual fantasy upside outside of a spot start here and there. I’d probably lean toward the 3.05 over either of those veterans.
3.06
- Michael Gallup, WR DAL
- Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE TEN
- Malik Willis, QB TEN
Okonkwo is the most intriguing player in this group, as he performed well as a rookie and provides athletic upside moving forward. I’d easily prefer him over the 3.06. However, I can’t say the same about Gallup and Willis. The Cowboys brought in washed-up veteran TY Hilton late in the season, and he overshadowed Gallup at times down the stretch. Willis is simply a bust to me, as the Titans turned to Joshua Dobbs with their season on the line over him. I have zero faith that Willis will ever have an NFL starting job, and I’d rather start over with the 3.06.
3.07
- Zay Jones, WR JAC
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
- Jordan Love, QB GB
I vehemently disagree with this valuation on Love, as I fully expect him to be the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2023. He’s worth far, far more than the 3.07. I also believe Jones is worth more than the 3.07, as he finished as the WR26 in 2022. The Jaguars did add Calvin Ridley via trade, but Trevor Lawrence could take a further step forward in 2023. However, I have zero interest in Edwards-Helaire, and I’d prefer to get out for 3.07.
3.08
- 2025 2nd
- Curtis Samuel, WR WAS
- Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
The 2025 2nd is more of a philosophical difference between the DLF Analyzer and me, as I always value those far-out picks more. Therefore, I’d take a 2025 2nd over the 3.08 without a second thought. As for Samuel, I think that’s a fair pivot, but I’d prefer to pick my own younger player with the 3.08. However, Warren is a better value, as he proved his talent as a rookie and is one Najee Harris injury away from potential RB1 value.
Dynasty Recommendations
Overall, it seems like there are some solid pivots out of this value range via trade, but it’s also a deep rookie class. If you can acquire a somewhat proven running back like Mattison or Warren, I’d love to do so. But I’m not desperate to move out of these picks, especially given the possibility of players I like falling down the draft board. It’s always important to note that just because a player has a certain ADP doesn’t mean they’ll go in that spot in your actual rookie draft.
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