Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 14

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 13 QB1s

Geno Smith and Dak Prescott got Week Thirteen started with a bang last Thursday as they both produced more than 28 fantasy points in the high-scoring affair. For Smith, it was easily his best game of a disappointing season. The final game of the week was just as exciting as the Bengals outlasted the Jaguars. Jake Browning produced the best game of his young career while Trevor Lawrence posted big numbers before suffering an ankle injury that could keep him out for multiple weeks.

Season-Long QB1s

With yet another QB1 performance, Commanders signal-caller Sam Howell is now a top-five fantasy scorer on the season and only Jalen Hurts has accrued more QB1 games. Justin Herbert struggled in the unwatched game against the Patriots, causing him to fall a pair of spots to the QB6. Tua Tagovailoa is back among the QB1 group, replacing Josh Dobbs.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders have opened a sizable lead over other teams when it comes to QB1 games allowed. Unfortunately for fantasy players, Washington has the week off, so let’s find other teams to target. The Jaguars, Bears, and Eagles are next in line, giving up at least seven top-twelve fantasy performances on the season. The Jags face the Browns, and presumably, veteran Joe Flacco, who could be in line to produce his second-straight impressive performance. The Bears give veteran Jared Goff a nice matchup while the Eagles should keep Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense hot.

Other matchups worth chasing this week include the Chargers (vs. Russell Wilson), Buccaneers (vs. Desmond Ridder), and Bengals (vs. Gardner Minshew.)

The Ravens are coming off a bye, leading the way with just one QB1 game allowed on the year. That means a tough test for Rams veteran Matthew Stafford, who has just two QB1 games on the season. The Panthers (vs. Derek Carr?), Steelers (vs. Bailey Zappe), Chiefs (vs. Josh Allen, Patriots (vs. Mitch Trubisky), and Jets (vs. CJ Stroud) are a few other matchups to avoid, when possible. The Browns (vs. CJ Beathard) and 49ers (vs. Geno Smith) are the other two teams allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 13 RB1s

The top six backs of the week each earned their spot by each scoring a pair of rushing touchdowns. Dolphins rookie back De’Von Achane was back on the field in a major role. Achane has at least ten touches in four games this season and he’s been a top-five back in each of those contests.

Season-Long RB1s

Christian McCaffrey has the overall RB1 crown locked down, with a gap of over 80 fantasy points over Raheem Mostert. The field saw a major shakeup outside of the top three though. Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, and Kyren Williams all entered the RB1 range, replacing James Cook, D’Andre Swift, and rookies Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Josh Jacobs was the big faller of the week with the Raiders on bye, dropping from RB4 to RB9, while Alvin Kamara is now a top-four back on the year despite an early-season suspension.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals have given up a league-high 16 top-24 games to running backs, so I guess they’ve earned the week off. Before we get into some defenses to target this week, let’s take a deeper look at the Broncos. They average a league-worst 29.3 fantasy points allowed to running backs and have given up 12 top-24 fantasy performances, with only four teams surrendering more. We all remember what happened to the Broncos back in Week Three though as the Dolphins hung 70 on them. Remember, that blowout was fueled by Miami’s running game as their backs totaled over 100 fantasy points. That’s right, nearly 30% of the Broncos fantasy points allowed on the season came in that one game. I never like to play the “remove one data point” game, but if ever there was a time to do it, this is it. As I said, the Broncos allow the most fantasy points in the league. With the Miami game removed, their average fantasy points allowed drops to 22.6, ranking them 13th in the league instead of dead last. The moral of this story is we shouldn’t necessarily target the Broncos’ revamped defense at any position.

On to some defenses we should be targeting this week. The Panthers (vs. Alvin Kamara) and Seahawks (vs. Christian McCaffrey) have each allowed 14 top-24 games on the year. You didn’t need another reason to use these two superstar backs but here it is anyway. Other teams that have allowed at least 25 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields include the Raiders (vs. Alexander Mattison) and Colts (vs. Joe Mixon.)

The Lions and Eagles have been tough against the run, each allowing six top-24 fantasy games to enemy ball carriers. This week, that means we should lower expectations for Khalil Herbert (vs. DET) and Tony Pollard (vs. PHI.)

Other teams that have stopped the run include the Falcons (vs. Rachaad White), Cowboys (vs. D’Andre Swift), Dolphins (vs. Derrick Henry), and 49ers (vs. Zach Charbonnet.)

Wide Receivers

Week 13 WR1s

It’s been a quietly frustrating season for DK Metcalf dynasty managers but the freak athlete finally responded with a monster game on Thursday night, including a trio of touchdown receptions. The Texans lost talented rookie Tank Dell early in their Sunday contest but Nico Collins picked up the slack and enjoyed the best game of his career. Like Metcalf, Christian Watson was another receiver who busted his slump, catching a pair of touchdowns, but then suffering another lower-leg injury.

troy taormina-usa today sports

Season-Long WR1s

Even the absence of Joe Burrow couldn’t keep Ja’Marr Chase from dominating. His 149-yard performance helped push him up to the WR5 spot on the season. Stefon Diggs (WR4 to WR6) and DJ Moore (WR7 to WR10) each fell slightly as a result of their bye week. Adam Thielen and Davante Adams fell from the WR1 ranks, while Collins joined the group for the first time this year.

Most WR1 Games Allowed

Week 13 TE1s

The Eagles have allowed 20 top-24 performances on the year, by far the most in the league. This week, that means they are an obvious target as they are set to face CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and the Dallas offense. Other teams to target this week include the Jaguars (vs. Amari Cooper?), Chargers (vs. Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy), Giants (vs. Watson?/Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed), and Titans (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle.)

The Broncos have allowed only four top-24 games on the season and three of those came in the first month of the season. This matchup could be enough to slow down Chargers veteran Keenan Allen this week. The Steelers (vs. DeVante Parker), Jets (vs. Collins), Browns (vs. Calvin Ridley), and Saints (vs. Adam Thielen) are other teams to avoid this week.

Tight Ends

Season-Long TE1s

Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride just continue to churn out productive fantasy performances and their respective dynasty value is quickly climbing as a result. LaPorta is already the dynasty TE1 according to our latest ADP and McBride can be considered a top-five tight end as well.

Most TE1 Games This Season

McBride and Jake Ferguson both climbed into the top-ten fantasy tight ends for the season, while the inactive Dalton duo of Schultz and Kincaid both slid down the ranks.

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals are the worst in the league when it comes to defending tight ends, allowing a league-high nine TE1 games and giving up 16.4 fantasy points per game. This week, the Bengals face the Colts and Kylen Granson, who is coming off a TE8 week. The Broncos (vs. Gerald Everett), Texans (vs. Tyler Conklin), and Jets (vs. Dalton Schultz) have each been friendly matchups for opposing tight ends, allowing eight TE1 games on the season.

The Bills still don’t have a blemish on the season but it will be an impressive feat if they survive Week Fourteen, when they face Travis Kelce and the Chiefs. The Browns will look to slow down Evan Engram. Other matchups to shy away from include the Titans (vs. Durham Smythe), 49ers (vs. Noah Fant), Giants (vs. Tucker Kraft), and Patriots (vs. Pat Freiermuth.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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