Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week Seven
In my best approximation of Paul Revere, “The data are coming! The data are coming!”
Indeed, as we’ve now reached the middle of the month, the updated October ADP has landed. And while it’s true anything beyond about five minutes ago is probably already somewhat obsolete, this now represents the most current mass dynasty sentiment. As such, opinions provided herein will be taking it into account.
The upcoming slate of games marks the halfway point in the 2023 fantasy season. Given this, it has now become pivotal to define where you stand. While there will always exist outliers, coming out of week seven with two or fewer wins means you should strongly consider maximizing your potential for 2024 and beyond. Conversely, teams with five or more wins should be thinking about potential moves that could help push them over the top. Teams in the middle may be fine standing pat, as anything can happen in the fantasy playoffs – but it’s my belief the place you least want to be is in that 1.05 – 1.08 range. Accordingly, it may be beneficial to pick one side of the fence or the other. Given this, starting next week and moving forward my advice will contain the additional granularity of catering specifically towards projected playoff and non-playoff squads.
Still, this does not wholly change the overarching rationale behind my advice. As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.
Much as in previous iterations of this weekly series, I will list one player apiece who I’ve bucketed into the following categories:
- Buy low
- Buy high
- Sell low / Drop
- Sell high
- Add (Big Bucks)
- Add (Pennies)
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week seven:
Buy Low – Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG
Week 6 Line: 8-62-0 (8 targets)
Target data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Eventually the Giants were going to have to pick “one slot receiver to rule them all,” and following his return from a 2022 injury it appears they’ve landed on the sophomore Robinson. Though he’s only played in four games, he’s already second on the team in targets, and proportionally he’s first in terms of both targets per game and target rate. While it’s true his looks are of the “empty calorie” variety, the point-per-reception spends the same regardless, and it helps that he’s corralling 88% of them.
Perhaps more critically, quarterback Daniel Jones has yet to meet a sack he won’t take. The revolving door at offensive line assuredly hasn’t helped, but getting the ball out quickly to a pair of trusted hands is likely the way this offense is going to have to operate until Jones gets a second to breathe. Averaging just over 9.0 PPR points per game is hardly the stuff of legends, but if Robinson continues to improve and manages a score here and there, he’ll easily provide a return on his current stature as a WR5.
Buy High – AJ Brown, WR PHI
Week 5 Line: 7-131-0 (9 targets)
I’ve spilled ink in both this space and during my dynasty buy/sell/hold series about the rationale for acquiring Brown’s teammate DeVonta Smith. And while I still stand by that, the 2023 season has shown us that this isn’t a 1a/1b scenario – Brown is the clear alpha and the engine that keeps the Eagles’ passing game running.
Though he hasn’t managed to get the ball into the end zone much with just two touchdowns on the year, Brown has accumulated 79+ yards in five of six games, including his last four games resulting in at least six receptions and 127 yards. On the young season, he’s the PPR WR6, with the fourth-most targets, fifth-most receptions and second-most yards in the league. He’s showing both consistency and an elite ceiling even while still leaving some scoring meat on the bone.
Given this, color me surprised he’s only being selected as the dynasty WR8. He’s still going as a first-round pick and as such clearly this is a “buy high” scenario, and my assumption is this slight gap between Brown and others (except Tyreek Hill) is due to age. However, he just turned 26 over the summer, and should have multiple elite years still ahead of him. I would prefer Brown in a one-for-one trade ahead of every player listed in front of him except Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson, so in my mind even though you’d have to spend a bit to acquire him, you may still be getting a value.
Sell Low/Drop – Preseason End-of-Bench Stashes
Week 6 Line: N/A
Taking a look towards the tail end of the October ADP shows many players who, under the exact right circumstances, seemed like they had a shot of producing useful fantasy numbers. Unfortunately, for one reason or another, it just hasn’t panned out. While noting this will again depend on your explicit league scenario, in keeping with the theme of being honest with ourselves about our year-to-date returns here’s a listing of players with whom you should now consider parting.
- Odell Beckham (ADP = 217.50): He’s spent more time off the field than on it, and now appears to have been surpassed by his younger teammates.
- Pierre Strong (ADP = 220.0): It’s never a good sign when your first team trades you for a song, and your second team immediately signs a veteran to block your path to playing time.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP = 223.8): He’s had too many chances across multiple good offenses.
- DeVante Parker (ADP = 231.8): Getting paid big dollars by the Patriots may now stand as more of a scarlet letter than a positive. He’s been surpassed by Kendrick Bourne on an offense that can barely support one player.
- Isaiah Spiller (ADP = 234.3): Even with Joshua Kelley playing as poorly as he did, Spiller barely saw the field in relief of Austin Ekeler.
- Jalen Tolbert (ADP = 236.3): Some positive off-season buzz has resulted only in key special teams play.
- Ty Chandler (ADP = 236.5): The Vikings decided that not one, but two inefficient running backs deserve to be ahead of him in the pecking order.
- Isaiah Hodgins (ADP = 238.8): Being fourth in receiver targets on a horrid passing offense isn’t the way to fantasy stardom.
- Trey Lance (ADP = 239.8): Wait, someone actually picked him in a mock draft?
Sell High – Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Week 6 Line: 0-0-0 (1 target)
Death, taxes, and Samuel getting hurt and missing time. Following Sunday’s donut the erstwhile Swiss Army Knife is now all the way down in the WR4 tier as the PPR WR40, averaging a meager 12.0 points per game. Perhaps more importantly he has been soundly passed by teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who despite missing a game is still the PPR WR16 on the season.
Samuel’s physical style of play enables him to essentially function as a running back at the receiver position, and of course sometimes at the running back position. However it has also ensured that his wear and tear is measured in city miles, as he has yet to appear in every game in any given season. With running back Christian McCaffrey suppressing the value Samuel has previously added with his legs, we’re left with an inconsistent and oft-injured player on an offense already filled with mouths to feed.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Being down in the basement next to boom/buster George Kittle isn’t where you want to be in terms of efficiency. Samuel will either have to elevate his ceiling or increase his snap count, the latter of which seems unlikely. Checking in as the WR18 per the October ADP, I’d eye a trade for a player who may lack Samuel’s ceiling, but is much less likely to leave a glaring hole in your lineup.
Add (Big Bucks) – Will Levis, QB TEN
Week 6 Line: N/A
To be quite honest, I’m not sold on Levis. Like at all. As a Penn State fan I never quite understood what the hype was about, especially considering he couldn’t beat out an average (albeit endearing) player in Sean Clifford. He obviously improved, but James Franklin and company had serious reservations about letting Levis open it up with his arm, instead having him function more as a bulldozer under center.
But the fact is Ryan Tannehill is hurt, Malik Willis ain’t it, and at 2-4 the Titans season is already circling the drain. Levis being unable to beat out Willis in camp is yet another black mark in a ledger already full of them, but Tennessee traded up to snag him in the early second round for a reason. They need to see what they have in the young man.
Though Levis didn’t run the 40-yard dash, we know he is a plus athlete with an ability to add points on the ground. As with any running quarterback, this raises both his floor and ceiling, and makes him a worthwhile add even in a 1QB setting. If he’s available (and per the ADP this appears likely in shallower leagues), he’s a reasonable add for about 5% of your FAAB budget.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football reference (collegiate rushing factors sacks into the totals).
Add (Pennies) – Damien Williams, RB ARI
Week 6 Line: 8-36-0, 1-8-0 (1 target)
Do you remember everything I said about Emari Demercado in last week’s edition? Well, whether your mechanism of choice is a Harry Potter memory charm or a Men in Black neuralyzer, you can forget about it as the Cardinals hoodwinked us all by giving him all of three touches following his week five “arrival.” Teammate Keaontay Ingram wound up leading a messy backfield with 12 touches, which in hindsight was perhaps unsurprising given Arizona’s stated depth chart. However, that veteran practice squad call-up Williams was only three touches behind him was enough to raise some eyebrows.
As I stated a few weeks back, with all the injuries and bye weeks it’s been rough out there. I’m not saying you should spend more than a FAAB buck or two, but James Conner is out for at least three more games, and despite the fact Williams only signed with Arizona earlier this month he was out there in live game action seeing a non-negligible amount of touches. Given his veteran status it’s reasonable to think the Cardinals might begin to get more comfortable with him out there helping protect quarterback Josh Dobbs and function as a safety outlet. While I’m not saying he’s going to suddenly become a Fred Jackson or Raheem Mostert type of late-stage breakout, crazier things have happened – though he was only out there for 13 snaps, he managed to touch the ball on just under 70% of them, so there appears to be a design in the works. We’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but it’s as Bear Grylls noted…improvise, adapt, overcome.
Touch data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.
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