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2021 College Market Share Report: Wide Receivers

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Wan'Dale Robinson
Bruce Matson Posted On March 17, 2022
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The wide receiver landscape always seems to be deep in college football. We have been spoiled with recent draft classes that are loaded with talent at the wide receiver position. Every year we see younger players who are breaking out and are transitioning into the next big-named draft prospects. We are also seeing junior and seniors improving their draft stock before they decided to declare for the draft.

The market share report is a good tool to use to gain a better understanding of which wide receivers are key contributors to their teams. It can also give us an idea of when a player is breaking out. Freshman and sophomore wide receivers who have higher ownership rates are players devy and dynasty managers will want to monitor because those are players who are more likely to develop into top-tier draft prospects a few years later down the road.

For the report, I collected all wide receivers who have racked up 530 yards or more and derived their ownership rate against their team’s passing production. Then the results were split by class. Since the NCAA allowed players to have a mulligan during the 2020 season, there will be some players who will have an extra season in their class. Players with a redshirt year are baked into their classes. For example, a redshirt freshman could be marked as a freshman on the report.

For reference, here are the reports from the past six draft seasons:

Market share is used best in conjunction with other metrics and film analysis. I don’t recommend using market share as a key driver for scouting college wide receivers because it only provides a small piece of the puzzle when it comes to evaluating players. Market share can be helpful, but it’s best used when paired with film study and other metrics.

*All stats are courtesy of ncaa.com

SENIORS

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Khalil Shakir, Boise State

Shakir finished his four-year collegiate career with 1,117 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He posted four 100-yard games. The senior wide receiver made highlight-reel catches all season long. Not to mention he was a key contributor to the passing game by achieving 2.72 yards per team pass attempt. It’s going to be very interesting to see where he lands in this year’s draft.

Jahan Dotson, Penn State

Dotson broke out as a junior during his age-20 season in 2020 with a 38.37 percent market share of his team’s passing production. He then finished his career in 2021 with a 35.89 percent market share. According to Pro Football Focus, he averaged 2.56 yards per route run and 5.3 yards after the catch per reception. There’s a chance he could get selected in the first round of this year’s draft.

Calvin Austin, Memphis

Austin made some big plays during Senior Bowl week. He was very productive during his time at Memphis, posting back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his junior and senior seasons. This year he averaged 2.58 yards per team pass attempt while hitting 2.99 yards per route run. He’s a speedster who is expected to carve out a role on special teams at the NFL level.

Romeo Doubs, Nevada

Doubs was paired with Carson Strong who is considered one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. From an analytics perspective, Doubs is a player to monitor. He broke out at age-19 during his sophomore season with a 20 percent market share. Then he produced back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons during his junior and senior seasons.

Doubs is a bigger wide receiver who excels at making plays downfield. He is expected to be taken in the later rounds of this year’s draft, but if he goes to a team that has a quarterback who loves to sling the ball downfield, then he could be that diamond in the rough who breaks out on our dynasty rosters.

JUNIORS

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Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama

Tolbert was one of the most exciting wide receivers at the Senior Bowl this year. He is being proclaimed as one of the top small-school prospects in this year’s draft. Over the course of his career, he proved he could be a key piece of South Alabama’s offense when he broke out during his sophomore season with a 27.33 percent market share of his offense’s passing production.

He was very productive during his second junior season in 2021 and nearly owned a 50 percent share of South Alabama’s passing production. He also averaged 3.62 yards per team pass attempt while also averaging 3.16 yards per route run.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky

Robinson broke out with two different collegiate programs. He owned a 30.31 percent market share of Nebraska’s passing offense in 2020. Then he transferred to Kentucky and blew up, catching 104 passes for 1,334 yards and seven touchdowns. As of right now, he has been falling to the middle of the second round of superflex mock drafts, making him a tremendous value in dynasty.

Treylon Burks, Arkansas

Burks is considered by the fantasy industry to be this year’s WR1. He capped off his career at Arkansas with a 41.15 percent market share of the team’s passing production while also averaging 3.52 yards per team pass attempt. Per PFF, he was one of the most efficient wide receivers in college football this year, averaging 3.52 yards per route run and 9.3 yards after the catch per reception. The junior wide receiver originally broke out during his age-19 season with a 20.52 percent market share.

Burks’ profile is almost spotless. He has the size-adjusted athleticism to set him apart from the rest of the receivers in this year’s class. His production metrics are rock solid. He has been efficient throughout his career. We are also expecting him to receive first-round draft capital. When you consider everything, it’s easy to see Burks being one of the top wide receivers in this year’s class.

Zay Flowers, Boston College

Flowers is returning to Boston College for his senior season. He broke out during his sophomore season in 2020 by catching 56 balls for 892 yards and nine touchdowns. This season he managed to hit 2.27 yards per route and 7.4 yards after the catch per reception.

Jameson Williams, Alabama

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Williams might be the most dynamic wide receiver in this year’s draft. He is currently rehabbing from an ACL injury. If he was at the combine, he would have posted one of the fastest times. His career started slowly with him catching just 11 passes during his first two seasons at Ohio State. Once he transferred to Alabama in 2021 he broke out, proving that he has the talent to be considered one of the top wide receivers in college football.

Drake London, USC

London’s 30.28 percent market share is baked with the games missed due to the ankle injury that happened in week nine against Arizona. Before the injury, he posted 100-yard performances in six of his eight games. He was on a tear and was one of the most productive wide receivers in football. His 3.52 yards per route run and 2.17 yards per team pass attempt indicate that he was one of the most efficient wide receivers in college football while also being an explosive weapon for the Trojans.

David Bell, Purdue

Bell is one of the most productive wide receivers in this year’s draft class. He is one of three wide receivers in this class to produce a 20 percent market share or better at the age of 18. Bell then followed his freshman season with a 33.71 percent market share of Purdue’s passing offense.

In his performances against Iowa and Michigan State this season, he combined for 457 and two touchdowns. Bell showcased the ability to put his team on his back in big moments. At the time Purdue played Iowa and Michigan State the two teams ranked in the top three of the nation. Bell’s official 4.65-second 40-yard-dash time at the combine will make him discount in rookie drafts. However, his production metrics indicate he could transition into a big-time value in dynasty.

Garrett Wilson, Ohio State

While sharing the field with Chris Olave and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Wilson still managed to post a 21.37 percent market share. He finished his season with three-straight 100-yard performances. Wilson broke out during his age-20 season, his second year, with a 34.43 percent market share and 3.21 yards per team pass attempt. He is projected to get drafted in the first round of this year’s draft. Many people have him ranked as this year’s WR1.

SOPHOMORES

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Jacob Cowing, UTEP

Cowing blew up this season, catching 69 passes for 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns. He had eight 100-yard performances. The year prior he managed to own a 41.28 percent share of UTEP’s passing production. He will be transferring to Arizona to finish his collegiate career. This will give us a look at what he can do against consistent Power-Five competition. He is projected to be a big-time asset in the 2023 draft class.

Josh Downs, North Carolina

Downs is expected to be another heavy hitter in next year’s class. He was very productive catching 101 passes for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Not only did he own a large market share of his team’s passing production, but he also posted 3.49 yards per team pass attempt. He had five games with over 100 receiving yards, including his 203-yard performance against Virginia. The devy community is valuing him as a high-end prospect. According to DLF’s rankings, he is currently ranked as the WR5 for the 2023 class.

Skyy Moore, Western Michigan

Moore is currently a trendy pick in the second round of rookie drafts this year. He posted good numbers at the combine, and it looks like he will at least flirt with second-round draft capital. The metrics like this kid. He broke out during his age-19 season with a 25.64 percent market share of Western Michigan’s passing production. Even in 2020 when D’Wayne Eskridge led the team in receiving, he still managed to own a 22.57 percent market share. Then he capped things off during his junior season by 95 catches for 1,292 yards and ten touchdowns. Whoever selects Moore in the draft is getting a big-play slot receiver who could develop into a difference-maker.

Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh

Addison is considered one of the top wide receivers in college football. He’s a big reason why Pickett was able to have a career season which turned into him becoming a first-round selection in this year’s draft. Addison broke out during his freshman season with a 23.31 percent market share of Pitts passing production. DLF currently has him ranked as the WR4 in their devy rankings for the 2023 draft class. His production metrics indicate that he has the potential to develop into a star at the next level. Kedon Slovis will be throwing him the rock. It’s going to be interesting to see how these two will develop together in 2022.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

Smith-Njigba is one of the hot prospects in devy. He finished the year strong with 60 catches for 958 yards and six touchdowns in his last five games, including a 347-yard and three-touchdown performance against Utah in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State has been collecting top-tier wide receiver recruits like Pokemon cards over the past few years.

Njigba outplayed his competition for more than just a spot on the depth chart, he has proven to be one of the top prospects in all of college football. He is playing for first-round status in next year’s draft. If he was in the 2022 class, he would be garnered as one of the top wide receivers and would be garnered as a first-round rookie pick.

Quentin Johnston, TCU

Johnston broke out during his freshman season with a 24.81 percent market share of TCU’s passing production. He’s a big wide receiver who has the potential to take over games. His most notable performance last year came against Oklahoma when he caught seven passes for 185 yards and three touchdowns. Johnston is a big play waiting to happen. He was on pace to exceed 1,000 yards receiving before an injury derailed his season. DLF currently has him ranked as the WR4 for the 2023 draft class.

Rakim Jarrett, Maryland

The former five-star recruit has done just enough to create some optimism while also infusing a lot of doubt for devy gamers. He led the team with 62 catches for 829 yards and five touchdowns. Although his numbers haven’t been horrific, he has not met the expectations set by devy gamers during the recruiting process. He just missed hitting the 20 percent break-out threshold during his freshman season in 2020 with a 19.09 percent market share. From a metrics standpoint, he is still in the game. All he needs to do is have a big season and he is back in the running for being one of the top wide receivers in the 2023 class.

Marvin Mims, Oklahoma

Mims is currently the WR8 in DLF’s Devy Rankings for the 2023 class. After a frustrating season for the Oklahoma Sooners, Mims managed to catch 32 passes for 705 yards and five touchdowns. Even with the less-than-ideal counting stats, he still owned a 20.58 percent market share of his team’s passing production. The fact he showed a lot of promise during his freshman season in 2020 with a 17.60 percent market share of Oklahoma’s passing production has kept him alive in the devy rankings for over a year. Mims is another player who will need to have a big 2022 season in order to be considered one of the top wide receivers for next year’s draft.

FRESHMAN

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Xavier Worthy, Texas

Worthy had a hot start to his career by catching 63 passes for 998 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is a very explosive playmaker who will burn opposing defenses if he gets the ball in space. His most notable game came against Oklahoma when he torched the Sooners for 261 yards and two touchdowns. If he can continue to produce at this rate, we might be calling him a generational prospect when it comes time for him to enter the draft. Quinn Ewers is expected to be his quarterback for next season. This is another situation devy gamers are monitoring to see how things play out. Arch Manning is rumored to have Texas as one of his favorite schools. It looks like Worthy will get the opportunity to work with top-tier quarterback play throughout his tenure at Texas.

Konata Mumpfield, Akron

Mumpfield is another freshman who produced, catching 63 passes for 751 yards and eight touchdowns. His best game came against Western Michigan where he caught 11 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns. I believe he made the best decision by transferring to Pittsburgh. Now we will get to see him compete against the power five competition. If he excels, his draft stock will immensely increase. He will also get the opportunity to play alongside stud wide receiver Jordan Addison and catch passes from Kedon Slovis.

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2021 College Market Share Report: Wide Receivers
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