Draft season is here and we are witnessing one of the deepest wide receiver classes we have ever seen. This year’s group of players might rival the epic 2014 class that shelled out Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and many other productive wide receivers. There’s a good chance this year’s class will change the landscape of the NFL by boosting some of the passing attacks around the league.
Looking through recent history, the number of players achieving a 30 percent market share or more of their respective passing offenses decreased about roughly 25 percent in the last four years. In 2015, we had 52 players surpass the 30 percent mark compared to last year where there were 39 players hitting that benchmark. The sample size is too small to peg any trends, but it’s still interesting to note that we might be seeing a change amongst the field. The recent decrease could be just traditional ebbs and flows of production and the market share rates could increase in the near future. The fact this is one of the most talent-laden wide receiver drafts in some time means that there’s a lot of quality at the position.
For the report, I pulled the top 200 receivers in yardage from 2018, figured out their market share percentages then separated them by class. By dividing the players by class, we get a macro view of which players are breaking out in their classes. This helps us in devy leagues because we get a view of which freshman and sophomore players are making a major impact. The report also helps us for the NFL Draft, because it displays which draft prospects are key impact players.
Below are the links to the market share reports from the previous three years:
- 2015 College Market Share Report: Wide Receivers
- 2016 College Market Share Report: Wide Receivers
- 2017 College Market Share Report: Wide Receivers
As a reminder, market share is a great guide, but shouldn’t be used as an absolute for player evaluation. The data from this report is best used in conjunction with film analysis and other metrics.
* All stats are courtesy of ncaa.com