There are many things to take in account when evaluating prospects for the NFL Draft. Athleticsim, production, and how a player looks on tape can all be major factors to player’s stock. Not all players are created equal and some are harder to evaluate than others – the unathletic late round picks who take the league by storm are head scratchers for most evaluators. Leaving stones unturned during prospect evaluation is the best way to miss out on a player, so the best practice would be to utilize all the data at your disposal to make the best decision possible come draft day.
My process is pretty simple. I grind, watch tape and assess as much data as possible, from efficiency metrics to athletic comparisons. Ownership or ‘market share’ of the team’s offensive production, targets, and touches are my favorite data points to analyze because they provide an easy and accurate depiction of how important a player is to their team. Market share data also shines a light on players who are stuck in middling offenses providing little-to-no upside for the player’s offensive production.
Wide receivers are evaluated on their ownership in the passing game. The larger the ownership of the team’s passing production the better. Most high-end wide receiver prospects are able to own a 20 percent market share of higher, and the elite prospects typically are posting around the 35 percent range or higher.
I pulled the nation’s top-200 receivers in receiving yardage, tallied their market share percentages and separated them by class. Separating them this way provides a glimpse of potential breakout ages and how the players stack up against their peers. This data is great for rookie drafts and devy leagues because it gives a quick view of a players production.
I posted an article covering the market share figures for the 2015 season last year, which became a tremendous resource while breaking down prospects for the NFL Draft. Keep in mind, it’s not an absolute when it comes to evaluating players as there are no systems that garner a 100 percent accuracy on wide receiver hit rates. Market share should be utilized in conjunction with many other tools to evaluate players.