2020 Dynasty Rookie Draft Do-Over
We are now one month into the 2020 NFL season and, in some cases, nearly six months removed from our dynasty rookie drafts. The quarter mark is the perfect time to reevaluate the value of the rookie class.
As is the case every year, some late-round rookies have impressed while a few first-rounders have flopped. It’s a delicate process for determining how to mix what we’ve seen on the field with the value these players brought into the season.
To try and get a better understanding of just how much player value has changed through the first four games of their careers, I got together with several of the DLF team members to take part in a rookie mock draft do-over.
For the record, this mock draft began following the Week Four games and was based on a 1QB PPR league. Also, the previous ADP data comes from actual rookie drafts held on MyFantasyLeague. That full data set can be found here. Let’s dive into the results.
Round One
1.01 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC (Previous ADP = 1.01)
Although Edwards-Helaire has not broken through with that monster game we’re salivating for, he remains the top pick among rookies. Everything we liked about CEH remains true as he has little touch competition thanks to veteran Damien Williams opting out for the year. Edwards-Helaire’s workhorse role in the league’s best offense has him in the conversation as one the most valuable assets in all of dynasty leagues.
1.02 = Jonathan Taylor, RB IND (1.02)
After the unfortunate injury to Colts starting back Marlon Mack, it was all systems go for Taylor, who was already considered the top rookie for many dynasty players. With Mack’s injury, along with other top backs around the league also hurting, some were even ranking Taylor as the dynasty RB1. Over the past couple of weeks, the Colts have continued with their committee attack and Taylor’s role in the passing game has been inconsistent, however.
1.03 = JK Dobbins, RB BAL (1.03)
As expected, Dobbins has been an important part of the Ravens backfield from the start of the season. A couple of surprises have hurt Dobbins’ weekly upside, though. Baltimore has used three, not just two backs in their committee and their overall offense looks to have taken a predictable step back from their record-setting 2019 performance. It remains likely that veteran Mark Ingram will not be with the team next season, which could lock Dobbins in as a top-15 dynasty pick.
1.04 = CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL (1.06)
While the top of off-season rookie drafts was dominated by running backs, a pair of talented wideouts were falling to the middle of the first round. The first of those, Lamb, has gained some value based on this draft. In our latest dynasty ADP, Lamb is just outside the WR1 range and he should easily crack that group by the end of the year.
1.05 = Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN (1.07)
Unlike Lamb, the other top rookie wideout is now serving as the top target for his team. The Broncos lost WR Courtland Sutton for the season but have also been without their quarterback Drew Lock. The Denver passing offense is in the “bottom one” of the league and Jeudy has been good, not great, through the first four games. A Week Four WR31 game is his best to date, but he’s still been able to maintain his value in the early going.
1.06 = Antonio Gibson, RB WAS (2.07)
One of the top rookie risers has been Gibson, now the Washington starting running back. After Derrius Guice was arrested and Washington surprisingly cut veteran Adrian Peterson. Gibson was the default starter despite a notoriously limited amount of college touches. Gibson already has more carries through four games than he did in two years at Memphis. So far, so good.
1.07 = Justin Jefferson, WR MIN (1.08)
After a breakout final college season, Jefferson was set up for success as a first-round pick in a position to replace Stefon Diggs for the Vikings. Despite all of that, Jefferson got off to a slow start before consecutive 100-yard games the past two weeks. He’s already being valued ahead of his veteran teammate, Adam Thielen.
1.08 = Cam Akers, RB LAR (1.05)
The Rams backfield was Akers for the claiming, but a slow start and an injury has made the Florida State product a faller, dropping three spots from his off-season ADP. While Darrell Henderson has been impressive, the Rams have made it clear they will use multiple backs. Akers should return to a significant role when healthy and could quickly regain any value he may have lost.
1.09 = D’Andre Swift, RB DET (1.04)
While Peterson’s departure from Washington helped Gibson, it hurt another rookie back in Swift. A messy three-man committee has kept his role limited through the first month and his most memorable play so far was a dropped game-winning touchdown in the season opener. Peterson’s age and Kerryon Johnson’s lengthy injury history have made Swift a smart buy as we’re seeing decreased value at the moment.
1.10 = Jalen Reagor, WR PHI (1.09)
The Eagles made multiple moves to upgrade their receiver corps this off-season and almost all have failed through the first month. Among the many receivers who are missing time with injuries is Reagor, who is out with a thumb injury after dealing with a shoulder issue earlier this off-season. Reagor is expected to miss another six weeks and needs to get on the field soon to maintain his value.
1.11 = James Robinson, RB JAX (5.03)
Perhaps the top story of this rookie class through four games has been the play of undrafted free agent James Robinson. He impressed the Jaguars coaching staff enough to make them comfortable parting with Leonard Fournette prior to Week One. He has rewarded them as he is the RB6 overall and has been by far the rookie gaining the most value in the opening month.
1.12 = Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF (2.04)
Many were surprised to see Aiyuk land in the first round, but he has shown the 49ers were wise to select him at that spot. Being compared to and filling in for the injured Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk has been the team’s top receiver, even after missing Week One. Aiyuk has seen some work as a ball carrier and nearly posted his first WR1 game when he finished as the WR13 in Week Three. Things are looking very good here.
Round Two
2.01 = Laviska Shenault, WR JAX (2.09)
Although Shenault hasn’t put it all together for a monster game yet (he’s finished outside of the top 25 weekly receivers each week), he has shown the athleticism and versatility that had many dynasty players excited. He has a chance to be the Jaguars WR2 for years to come.
2.02 = Joe Burrow, QB CIN (1.11)
Many opted for the safety of Burrow late in the first round or early in the second in off-season drafts and although he may have fallen slightly, he has actually gained dynasty value. The Bengals have had to pass the ball to stay competitive in games and Burrow is third in the league in pass attempts – that volume could help make him a top-ten scorer as a rookie.
2.03 = Henry Ruggs, WR LV (1.10)
Ruggs is one of many rookies in this second-round range to already miss time with an injury. While he’s missed the past two games, Ruggs was being treated as the Raiders WR1 when on the field. Both the Panthers and Saints clearly game-planned to stop him from hitting a deep play, but that can’t last all season.
2.04 = Tee Higgins, WR CIN (2.02)
Much has been said about the decline of Bengals veteran AJ Green this season. The beneficiary of that has been the rookie from Clemson, Tee Higgins. The rookie had a breakout game in Week Three when he saw his playing time and overall usage spike and scored twice. In fact, he had almost as many fantasy points in that game (21) as Green has all year (25.9.)
2.05 = AJ Dillon, RB GB (2.03)
Many dynasty players were worried about what the addition of Dillon would do to the production and value of Packers starting back Aaron Jones. Through one month, the answer is clear – none. Jones continues to look like one of the most talented backs in the league while Dillon has hardly seen the field. I was actually surprised the rookie didn’t fall further down this draft. If Jones signs a contract extension, that would nearly guarantee that drop in value.
2.06 = Chase Claypool, WR PIT (2.12)
Although the Steelers receiver depth chart is crowded, Claypool has found a way to standout through the team’s first three games. He made a great sideline catch in the opener and then hauled in an 84-yard touchdown grab the next week. With so many targets on the roster, expect Claypool to have inconsistent weekly performances but he is certainly gaining value in dynasty leagues.
2.07 = Bryan Edwards, WR LV (2.10)
Another Raiders wideout dealing with injuries is Edwards, who missed the game last week and is out again in Week Five. Even when he’s been on the field, he has not stood out, which is a disappointment after the late off-season hype. Edwards remains a solid dynasty target, but we may not get the early breakout from him that he produced in college when he excelled as a 17-year-old freshman.
2.08 = Zack Moss, RB BUF (2.06)
In the first two games of the season, the Bills backfield was a full-blown running back by committee. The rookie Moss went down with an injury in Week Two and missed the past two games. He should be back soon and his role will remain the same, with work both in the rush and pass game. While we’re only a month into the season, Moss might already be a buy low target.
2.09 = Joshua Kelley, RB LAC (3.02)
One of the top risers from early spring drafts was Kelley, the Chargers back who is now set to be the team’s starter after the injury to Austin Ekeler. After a pair of early-season RB25 games, Kelley has taken a step back the past two weeks. It is difficult to know what to expect from the UCLA product but at the very least, Kelley will have a huge opportunity in Ekeler’s absence.
2.10 = Michael Pittman, WR IND (1.12)
Yet another rookie to deal with injuries, Pittman is on the injured reserve list following a calf injury that required surgery. He hopes to return by mid-season and he could be the team’s WR1 as soon as he’s back on the field. The Colts already lost Parris Campbell and veteran TY Hilton just hasn’t been the same this year, leaving the door to production wide open.
2.11 = KJ Hamler, WR DEN (3.04)
Like his teammate Jeudy, Hamler has the opportunity to play a larger-than-expected role in 2020 due to the injury to Sutton. Unfortunately, he has been banged up himself and has just six catches through the first month and missed Week One. Frankly, it is somewhat surprising to see Hamler gain value based on this mock and off-season ADP.
2.12 = Denzel Mims, WR NYJ (2.05)
One rookie we haven’t seen at all yet is Mims, who remains on the Jets injured reserve list due to hamstring injuries. The Jets are considered the worst team in the league and lack playmakers at all positions. Mims should play a key role as soon as he is healthy enough to do so and potentially regain some of his lost value.
Round Three
3.01 = Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB (2.01)
Vaughn was down the depth chart to start the season but could take advantage of injuries to veterans Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy. Drafted as a first-rounder in early rookie drafts, he has been an early bust.
3.02 = Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA (2.08)
We haven’t seen Tagovailoa yet, though the Dolphins coaching staff is at the point of making weekly announcements that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to start. It’s only a matter of time, though the Dolphins lack the weapons other rookies like Burrow and Justin Herbert have. Owners of Tua will need to be patient.
3.03 = Gabriel Davis, WR BUF (4.08)
Bills rookie receiver Gabriel Davis saw an increased role when veteran John Brown left the team’s Week Three game with an injury. Brown was back the next week but playing behind a pair of wideouts with injury histories, Davis is worth stashing on dynasty rosters.
3.04 = Justin Herbert, QB LAC (3.03)
I was surprised to see Herbert fall this far after his impressive start following the freak accident involving veteran Tyrod Taylor. Herbert could be considered a top-12 dynasty option at the position moving forward and was named the starter for the rest of the season following his Week Four game.
3.05 = Darryton Evans, RB TEN (3.01)
A small school, speedy back, Evans drew some off-season hype based on the expectation Derrick Henry might be playing his last season in Tennessee. Henry’s new contract extension signed prior to Week One soured Evans’ long-term value, and he’s seen little opportunity on the field so far this year.
3.06 = Van Jefferson, WR LAR (3.06)
Known as an excellent route runner coming out of college, Jefferson has engaged in a weekly battle with veteran Josh Reynolds for the Rams WR3 job. The rookie has been inconsistent through four games but is still intriguing due to the Rams’ high-powered offense.
3.07 = Anthony McFarland, RB PIT (2.11)
Buried on the Steelers depth chart early in the season, McFarland saw an opportunity for increased playing time in Week Three. With James Conner locked in as the starter, we may be seeing McFarland overtake Benny Snell as the primary backup. with Conner’s injury history, we could be one snap away from seeing McFarland on the field much more often.
3.08 = Quintez Cephus, WR DET (4.05)
The Lions played without Kenny Golladay in Week One, which led to the rookie Cephus drawing a surprising ten targets. Since then, Golladay has returned and Cephus has seen his playing time decrease. With just three targets in the past three games, he remains a hold in dynasty leagues, with hope for a 2021 role.
3.09 = Devin Duvernay, WR BAL (3.07)
A burner from Texas, Duvernay fits the Ravens mold at wide receiver. The Baltimore offense is off to a relatively slow start this year and the same can be said for the rookie receiver. Duvernay has totaled just seven receptions through four games, but due to the thin Ravens receiver depth chart, he’s worth holding into next off-season. We recently saw his elite speed when he recently returned a kickoff for a touchdown.
3.10 = DeeJay Dallas, RB SEA (4.04)
Dallas made his NFL debut in Week Three as the Seahawks were dealing with multiple backfield injuries. Dallas is just third on the current depth-chart and will likely fall behind Rashaad Penny once he’s healthy. Dynasty managers will have to wait until 2021 to know what they’ve got in Dallas. #buzzkill
3.11 = Harrison Bryant, TE CLE (5.04)
Despite being undrafted in April, Bryant has surprisingly found a role in the Browns offense. he was outplaying disappointing tight end David Njoku, even before the veteran went down with an injury.
3.12 = Cole Kmet, TE CHI (3.05)
With veteran Jimmy Graham playing well, the rookie Kmet has been unable to overcome the Bears infamous tight end depth chart. While he has just one catch on the year, Kmet is still viewed as the future starter for Chicago.
Round Four
4.01 = Adam Trautman, TE NO (3.10)
The Saints moved up to snag Trautman, but he has done next to nothing as of yet. Fantasy players were especially disappointed in Week Four when veteran Jared Cook was out and Trautman still failed to even record a reception.
4.02 = Lamical Perine, RB NYJ (4.03)
Jets starter Le’Veon Bell has not played since Week One, leaving the rookie Perine and veteran Frank Gore in a timeshare. Even with this increased role, Perine has not finished inside the top-50 of weekly fantasy scorers. With Bell back this week, his opportunity for playing time decreases even more.
4.03 = Darnell Mooney, WR CHI (5.07)
One of the big surprises of the season has been the Bears slot receiver, Darnell Mooney, who they selected on day three. Mooney has simply outplayed Anthony Miller. This role has yet to lead to significant fantasy production, though Mooney is worth stashing in hopes of upgrades at quarterback and the coaching staff.
4.04 = Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR WAS (3.08)
The Washington offense has flopped, leading to a recent change at quarterback. With Terry McLaurin dominating the targets, no other pass-catcher has made an impact, including the rookie Gandy-Golden.
4.05 = Lynn Bowden, RB MIA (3.09)
In a surprise move, the Raiders traded Bowden as the pre-season cut down deadline approached. The Dolphins took a chance on him and initial reports indicated Miami would move him to wide receiver. Given their multiple opt outs, that made sense, but it hasn’t happened as of yet. Bowden has two touches on the year.
4.06 = Eno Benjamin, RB ARI (4.01)
The Cardinals backfield has been a disappointment as starter Kenyan Drake has flopped. Backup Chase Edmonds has been impressive with limited touches and the rookie Benjamin has yet to see the field this year. This continues to be a situation to monitor.
4.07 = Jalen Hurts, QB PHI (4.06)
Many thought Hurts was a wasted pick for the Eagles with Carson Wentz locked in as the team’s long-term starting quarterback. That may still be the case, but Wentz and the entire Philadelphia offense has struggled, and the coaching staff has started looking for ways to get Hurts on the field.
4.08 = Albert Okwuegbunam, TE DEN (4.11)
Dynasty managers were very excited about the Broncos offense entering the season after they loaded up with tons of youth, including tight end Okwuegbunam. Although he hasn’t seen the field yet, that could be changing soon as Noah Fant suffered an injury and will miss time.
4.09 = Freddie Swain, WR SEA (N/A)
The Seahawks offense has been one to invest in this season as Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP-level. While the large majority of the the Seattle targets go to receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, Seattle’s depth has been surprising and impressive, including the performance of the rookie Swain, who has five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown already.
4.10 = Devin Asiasi, TE NE (3.11)
The Patriots still have no serious fantasy threat at the tight end position, though their pair of rookies, including Asiasi, have long-term upside. Asiasi has yet to record a catch this year and has not even seen a target, though.
4.11 = KJ Hill, WR LAC (4.12)
The Chargers drafted a pair of rookie receivers on day three. While Hill has the more well-known name and profile, leaving Ohio State as their all-time receptions leader, Joe Reed is also deserving of a deep league stash. The pair have combined for one reception in the early going, but both clearly have some potential.
4.12 = Isaiah Wright, WR WAS (N/A)
While most dynasty players were chasing Gandy-Golden as the Washington rookie receiver to roster, the relative unknown Wright has recorded four receptions in each of the past two games. He’s still mostly off the radar but is worth a stash in deep dynasty leagues.
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