Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: A Pair of Trades to Consider
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
As I’ve probably said 100 times by now, preseason football gives you the opportunity to “properly react.” What I mean by this is you certainly want to account for what’s right in front of your eyes, but you don’t want to hot take your way through August. Many key players are sitting out, and offenses likely aren’t showing their full hands just yet.
But man oh man would I be nervous if I was heavily invested in the Pittsburgh offense! Russell Wilson looks every bit as cooked and conservative as he did last season, and Justin Fields also dinked and dunked his way to 92 yards on 17 attempts while fumbling once again (the Steelers recovered). The writing was likely on the wall when Arthur Smith was mind-bogglingly hired as the team’s offensive coordinator, and expectations should have been tempered accordingly. But it could be a miserable go of it for the black and yellow in 2024.
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Take Your Pick(ens)
Which side do you prefer in a 12-team, PPR superflex league – Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, George Pickens and a 2025 second-round pick, or Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Zamir White?
Truthfully this one took me a little by surprise. Williams was the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and commensurately has typically been found at pick 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts (while noting receiver Marvin Harrison Jr would occasionally land there as well). Pickens also seems to carry significant buzz with him, and even Swift has maintained solid value despite his relocation to Chicago.
I know that St. Brown is extremely well-regarded, but in a superflex format I was surprised to see him eclipse (if only slightly) Williams in value. And while perhaps I shouldn’t have been, I was equally surprised to see Goff treated as the third most valuable asset in the proposed deal, nearly 1.6x that of Pickens. And at the risk of making another Rodney Dangerfield fantasy comparison within the span of a week, this is a guy who usually can’t get no respect!
As I stated in my recent NFC North Buy, Sell and Hold article in naming Goff my buy (additional context in brackets):
“The hate is real. Goff finished 2023 as the QB7, is only 29 years old, and is now tied to one of the best offenses in football for another four years with a big-money extension. Yet he’s the QB18 per the current [1QB] ADP, and has similar value to a future third-round pick [in a 1QB setting]. He comes with a lot of preconceived notions due to his time with the Rams, but he’s clearly more a part of the solution than part of the problem. Don’t make this more complicated than it has to be.”
Would I rather have Williams or Goff? Obviously the former, as the fact is if he flashes anywhere in the stratosphere as CJ Stroud did in 2023 he’s going to be a top three-five superflex asset. As alluded to above, it’s more than likely not going to happen like that for Goff, though another mid-range QB1 season should absolutely see him climb the dynasty ranks.
But behind that, and noting this viewpoint is derived from large degrees of subjectivity, I’m bearish on both Pickens and Swift. It’s still early days, but the former has been extremely boom or bust through his two years in the league – you saw my thoughts about the 2024 Steelers offense above, and while I didn’t think this is something I’d ever see myself utter, it could get worse than Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph.
With Swift, he got the solid off-season money. I just don’t view him as a bell-cow ball carrier, and his efficiency wanes when he’s miscast in that role. Players with tier-two upside (e.g., PPR RB13-24) are nice to have but they don’t win leagues.
Given this, I’m more likely (even if perhaps not pounding the table) to take the birds in hand with the Detroit duo. I’ve spoken to Goff, and quite frankly don’t need to speak to St. Brown (he is him). Even White has the potential to put up similar points to Swift this year. Particularly for contenders, I’m leaning towards “Team B.”
If I’m rebuilding, the calculus changes but not massively. Again, Williams has the best growth potential of the bunch, but it’s not as if there are any golden oldies on the St. Brown side of the ledger. But ultimately if you’re still a few years away you might not inherently want Goff’s and St. Brown’s points, but rather to let Williams grow and develop and surround him with additional talent gained via trades and high draft picks.
Hall Monitoring
In a 12-team, half-PPR, superflex and TE-premium league, which side do you prefer – Breece Hall, or Rome Odunze and a 2025 first-round pick?
Once again in an effort to supply some context, let’s see what the DLF Trade Analyzer has to say on the matter.
This seems about right to me. I talked about “buzz” above, and Odunze has it in spades. And why not? After a stellar collegiate career, he was selected with a top-ten pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and already appears to be climbing the depth chart based upon his second pre-season contest that saw him rolling with the first team hot and heavy. As always, there are no guarantees when it comes to the translation of collegiate production to the pros, but thus far Odunze is checking the necessary boxes.
As far as picks go, a future first represents some of the best possible superflex currency. While we don’t yet know who will comprise the 2025 ranks, it’s a safe bet that there will be some signal callers in their midst, presenting an opportunity to stock up on the superflex setting’s most important position. In addition to that, while there don’t currently appear to be any tight ends currently on the radar, if any manage to climb the ranks they could also represent solid options.
Still, I’m taking Hall. I have him as my dynasty RB1, and if the Jets even begin to approach an average offense with Aaron Rodgers under center his efficiency and volume could spike even further. Going back to my Buy, Sell and Hold series, Hall was my buy for the Jets. I haven’t changed my mind on that since:
“From week five onward Hall finished within the PPR RB1 tier eight times, including six finishes in the top four. This included seven performances yielding 20+ PPR points, aided by his 76 receptions on the season. Subjectively, Hall and teammate Garrett Wilson were the only players who made the Jets watchable.
“I’ve said already that selling low beats selling lower. Naturally, the analogous paradigm when trading for a player is that buying high beats buying higher. So even though Hall is already viewed as the eighth most valuable player per the current DLF ADP, he’s still “only” the RB3. And while we’re assuredly in the splitting hairs range of players, I have him as my overall dynasty RB1, and would not be surprised if he achieves that feat with continued stellar play.”
I have all the faith in the world that Odunze is going to pan out, but unless he becomes an upper echelon receiver he’s not going to provide the same type of fantasy return as Hall. And if the 2025 draft pick yields an average or worse player, the deal becomes a landslide for the new Hall owner. As noted in the first question above, depth is great, but elite players win leagues. I’ll take the ball carrier and the points.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: What to do with Jaylen Waddle? - February 4, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Buy-Low Running Backs - January 28, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Away Joe Burrow? - January 21, 2025
