Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Wide Receivers
The dynasty world can be an optical illusion, where everything is not what it appears. On the surface you can see the landscape, however looking deeper can uncover a new meaning, a different perspective. In this four-part series, I’ll be discovering the true takeaways from the dynasty world – through the contrast of overall fantasy points scored versus the fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2024.
FPPG is key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider yearly totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on the overall output misses key information such as games missed through injury, hence can skew outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify their fantasy effectiveness.
The third article in the series focuses on wide receivers, contrasting the overall output against the weekly output from 2024 (excluding week 18). The previous article on running backs can be found here.
Brian Thomas Jr, WR JAC
- WR4 Overall (266.7 fantasy points)
- WR12 in FPPG (16.7 fantasy points)
Any rookie wide receiver to finish as WR4 overall has had an outstanding season. Thomas Jr was a raw prospect despite producing a monster final season at LSU – leading the nation in touchdowns (17). The production translated to the pro game, with 10 receiving touchdowns in his rookie season, impressive considering the situation around him. Franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed the second half of the season, with Thomas Jr’s best production coming with backup Mac Jones, when he delivered the WR3 performance in FPPG, as opposed to WR22 in FPPG with Lawrence.
Whilst the splits with and without Lawrence are concerning for Thomas Jr it should be noted the natural progression of a rookie wide receiver generally results in a stronger second half of their rookie season. In addition to this, slot receiver Christian Kirk was also missing from week nine onwards, supplementing a greater target share and fantasy output for Thomas Jr. These minor concerns are appeased with the addition of new head coach Liam Coen, an offensive wizard from the Buccaneers. It will be intriguing to see if this further increases Thomas Jr’s dynasty value, currently around the WR7 and in the same tier as the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St Brown and Puka Nacua.
Verdict
For a player you could take at the end of round one in rookie drafts, Thomas Jr has been a smash hit in dynasty. The WR12 in FPPG is a true reflection of Thomas Jr but with scope for more if Lawrence can build chemistry and improve his own consistency. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bump in value with the arrival of Coen, in which case it would be an opportunity to pivot away from Thomas Jr, otherwise I’m happy to acquire or hold at his current value.
Brian Thomas Jr / Trevor Lawrence – DLF Player Splits App.
Drake London, WR ATL
- WR10 Overall (240.1 fantasy points)
- WR21 in FPPG (15.0 fantasy points)
Disclaimer: I was not a fan of London entering the 2024 season. The heat was not based upon London as a player, but had more to do with his WR1 cost after finishing the WR46 in FPPG in 2022 and WR44 in FPPG in 2023. Last season London took a major step forward in dynasty, finishing as the WR10 overall and a good step forward improving to WR21 in FPPG. The pessimist would suggest London’s overall output was on the back of numerous injuries across the wide receiver landscape, however the WR21 FPPG finish includes the week nine contest against the Cowboys, where London played only 19% of snaps before injury.
The promotion of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr towards the end of 2024 is sure to generate excitement and stability in London’s WR1 market value. Whilst not included in the sample for this article, London’s biggest fantasy game of his career (and seventh highest on the season overall) came with Penix Jr in week 18 – with a whopping 40.7 fantasy points against the Panthers. Last season London was used effectively with an increased slot usage (39% as per Pro Football Focus), providing favorable matchups and negating his lack of separation skills. Also, London was the WR6 in targets per game, despite plenty of target competition and a strong likelihood of no significant weapons being added this off-season.
Verdict
Currently valued as a low-end WR1, London is in a stable situation and albeit with a relatively new quarterback, the market will remain strong in the short term. While I struggle to see true elite numbers in his range of outcomes, London is a player I’m happy to target at his current value and would look to roster with a productive player in a similar range such as AJ Brown. Disclaimer: I’m a fan of London entering the 2025 season.
Jerry Jeudy, WR CLE
- WR11 Overall (228.6 fantasy points)
- WR26 in FPPG (14.3 fantasy points)
2024 was the perfect storm for the former first-round draft pick and highly-touted Jeudy, resulting in his best-ever season as WR11 overall. He assumed the primary role in the Browns’ passing attack after the week seven trade of Amari Cooper, which was further aided by the season-ending injury to quarterback Deshaun Watson – resulting in a move to the facilitative fantasy quarterback Jameis Winston. Jeudy’s first nine games of the season were outside of WR2 range, before finishing six out of the last seven games inside the top 20. The strong finish could be down to a number of factors: Jeudy becoming settled within a new team he joined in March 2024, the promotion of Winston after the Watson injury and/or the trade away of Cooper.
Jeudy delivered the best performance of his fantasy career in week 13 against the Broncos, scoring a huge 40.5 fantasy points – the WR8 performance on the season. Jeudy displayed a higher ceiling than in previous years, although the excellent WR11 finish is dampened with a WR26 finish in FPPG. Usually with a large discrepancy it equates to an overvalued performance overall and a tendency to fade the player, however as Jeudy is valued on the WR3/4 cusp, the market hasn’t overreacted to his strong fantasy season.
Verdict
Still only 25 years old, Jeudy’s market feels fair, with the balance of risk and reward. The quarterback situation is questionable moving forward, however the threat of added receiving competition is unlikely to occur with early draft capital. In my view, the quarterback is the key to Jeudy, so I’ll be acting accordingly – happy to roster Jeudy with Winston but cautious with a player such as the rumored Kirk Cousins.
Jerry Jeudy – DLF ADP Over Time App.
Tee Higgins, WR CIN
- WR19 Overall (212.8 fantasy points)
- WR2 in FPPG (19.3 fantasy points)
Higgins finally reached his huge potential in 2024, finishing as the WR2 in FPPG, second only to his Bengals’ teammate Ja’Marr Chase. It was a career year for Higgins, who despite two spells on the sidelines through injury and five games missed, was still able to finish as the WR19 overall on the season. There is also the feel-good factor of vividness bias, with Higgins finishing as the WR1 overall in championship week – a key highlight performance sure to remain with title winners and losing finalists. Higgins was consistent and lethal in the red zone, with an excellent 10 touchdowns in just 12 games, albeit at an unsustainable pace over the longer term.
Higgins’ huge season is partly due to the facilitative environment, with solid quarterback Joe Burrow – who led the league with 652 pass attempts (58 more than the next player). Also factor in the favorable matchups in coverage, with opposing defenses focusing more on the elite Chase. Throughout his career Higgins has been injury-prone, with 12 games missed in five seasons and his weekly performances are considered more boom-bust than consistent if we look beyond 2024’s sample size.
Verdict
As an upcoming free agent, Higgins has significant risk in his profile – despite a truly excellent season from a fantasy perspective. Any move away from the Bengals effectively makes him the primary option in a pass attack, with tougher coverage and likely a worse quarterback than Burrow. I’m happy to pivot on any positive market move on Higgins, with options like 2024 rookies Xavier Worthy and Rome Odunze appealing. The time to acquire Higgins was last off-season and any move for him right now should be exercised with caution.
Adam Thielen, WR CAR
- WR53 Overall (130.1 fantasy points)
- WR24 in FPPG (14.5 fantasy points)
I want to shine the spotlight on Thielen, an aging wide receiver who you could easily purchase early on in 2024 and who was able to produce WR2 numbers in FPPG. The ability to acquire a player like Thielen for a 2025 third-round rookie pick and add points into your starting lineup is an underrated power move in dynasty leagues. With the recent trend to build rosters around young, potentially great assets, mixing with a productive cheap veteran provides the balance to win now and in the future.
While I’m not advocating acquiring Thielen for 2025, this highlight is more of a reflective process, to think about which productive and cheap veteran could I acquire this off-season? Thielen’s final six weeks of the season included two games as a WR1 and two games as a WR2 in fantasy – the perfect stopgap for any contenders with underperforming rookies or hit by the numerous tough injuries at the position last season. There is no coincidence quarterback Bryce Young was playing the best performances of his young career with the Kate season return of Thielen.
Verdict
With changes on the horizon for the Panthers’ wide receiver room, Thielen should be considered a short-term option, with his fantasy production the key driver to his dynasty roster security. At this stage in the off-season it is difficult to accurately predict the 2025 version of Thielen, however two players I’m intrigued by as potential cheap veteran options next season are DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen. Any time you can find WR2 production for so cheap, you make the low-risk move, with upside to win a dynasty title.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
