Monday Mocks: Off-season Storylines

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.

In this week’s Monday Mock, I’ll be drafting the most compelling storylines from the early off-season, with commentary on how it affects dynasty managers.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 – Tee Higgins Looking for a Payday

It was a wild season for Bengals wideout Tee Higgins. After being slapped with the Franchise Tag, Higgins eventually agreed to a one-year deal with the team. Amidst speculation that he was faking an injury out of protest for teammate Ja’Marr Chase’s own contract situation, Higgins missed the first two games of the year. After that, things quickly got better. Higgins finished with a career-high ten touchdowns and set a new high mark of 18.5 fantasy points per game, only five receivers averaged more. Over the past year, most have assumed that Higgins would be moving on from the Bengals, with an average annual salary of $40 million being floated around. There are plenty of teams in need of an impact receiver and despite playing Robin to Chase’s Batman in recent years, there’s no doubt Higgins is among the top talents in the game. Higgins’ current ADP of 22 overall is his highest since early in the 2023 season, and could continue to climb with a return to the Bengals or landing his own WR1 role. Higgins is a safe investment this off-season.

1.02 – Could Cooper Kupp get Cut?

There were multiple reasons to be concerned about Rams receiver Cooper Kupp as a dynasty asset entering the 2024 season. Perhaps his age, he turned 31 last off-season, turned you off. Maybe the impressive breakout of teammate Puka Nacua suggested Kupp would take a step back. Or maybe the pile of injuries Kupp battled throughout his career was finally enough. Regardless of which of those factors, or maybe something else, derailed Kupp’s season, it happened. He missed a half-dozen games, averaged 14.6 fantasy points per contest and never really worked as the team’s lead target. By mid-season, it appeared a sure thing that Kupp would get traded. The Rams apparently couldn’t get the second-rounder they were seeking, so he remained. The Rams now have a potential out on Kupp’s deal which could save them as much as $15 million if he was cut, and even more if they could find a taker for him.

1.03 – Travis Hunter– WR or CB?

Colorado’s Travis Hunter enjoyed a magical season in 2024, splitting his time between wide receiver and defensive back and ultimately earning the Heisman Trophy. Now, he enters the NFL. While dynasty managers and NFL general managers alike are excited about the idea of adding talent to their roster, the question about his position lingers. It is a major challenge to produce rookie rankings or evaluate Hunter, or the receiver position as a whole, until we know how he will split his time. Unfortunately, there is no real timeline for when this decision might be made or shared. There is no incentive for either Hunter or any team interested in drafting him, to announce how he’ll be used once the 2025 season rolls around. Perhaps the position he’s announced on draft night could offer a hint, but there is still no commitment involved there. This is obviously a rare circumstance and one that will offer dynasty managers a difficult choice when making their rookie draft picks. Using your early, or even mid-first-round pick on Hunter could offer zero return if most of his time is spent in the defensive backfield, but his talent is enough that it is risky to allow him to fall to the perennial contenders late in the round.

1.04 – Sam Darnold’s Next Stop

In his seventh season in the league and suiting up for his fourth team, former third-overall pick Sam Darnold enjoyed a career year. He set new high marks in completion percentage (66.2%), yards (4,319), touchdowns (35), passer rating (102.5), and fantasy points (308). Unfortunately, a late-season cold streak resulted in back-to-back losses, including an opening round playoff loss. Fans understandably blamed Darnold for the losses and are ready to usher in the JJ McCarthy era. Darnold is now expected to hit free agency and his demand should be much greater than it was a year ago when leaving the 49ers. There is an understandable belief that much of Darnold’s statistical success this past season was tied to the quarterback-friendly system of head coach Kevin O’Connell and parting ways with him will bode poorly for Darnold, a career-long disappointment prior to 2024.

1.05 – ARod & Adams Moving Again

Aaron Rodgers seemingly got everything he wanted with the Jets. He got Allen Lazard and eventually was even reunited with Davante Adams, but the team and the again quarterback still struggled. Now, with new head coach Aaron Glenn in town, there is uncertainty about Rodgers’ future. There are plenty of options. Glenn has reportedly suggested he’d be interested in keeping Rodgers around. The 41-year-old could simply choose to retire as well. Finally, Glenn and the Jets could cut or trade Rodgers, seeking a fresh start. Moving on from Rodgers wouldn’t save the Jets a ton of money, around $10 million, but Adams is a different story. A trade or release of Adams would save the Jets over $36 million on the 2025 cap. No matter what happens to the quarterback, it seems that Adams could be hitting the open market.

1.06 – The Ben Johnson Affect

The top story of the recent coaching cycle was certainly the Bears luring the coveted Ben Johnson away from their division-foe Lions. In Chicago, Johnson inherits an offense that most dynasty managers and football fans in general were very excited about last off-season. The Bears’ offense, namely rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, was inconsistent and ultimately disappointing last season, though much of that can be blamed on the failed coaching staff. With Johnson is town, we are already seeing the dynasty value of Williams, Odunze and their teammates bouncing back. Just as they were last year, expectations for the Bears’ offense will be sky-high all off-season.

1.07 – Tyreek Trade Incoming?

A disappointing season for the Dolphins ended in concerning fashion as superstar receiver Tyreek Hill aired his grievances and all but demanded a trade out of Miami. Time has seemingly healed those wounds as Hill’s agent recently acknowledged that the receiver is committed to the Dolphins moving forward. Of course, Hill was to blame for part of what went wrong this year too. He averaged just 12.8 fantasy points per contest, his lowest since his rookie season of 2016. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will likely always carry injury concerns with him and the Dolphins simply haven’t been the same when he’s out of the lineup. Hill will soon turn 31 years old and for the first time in his career, looked like he lost a step. The received ended the 2024 season with an ADP of 40 overall, his lowest since June of 2019.

1.08 – A Shift in Seattle

Last off-season, the Seahawks made what looked like a savvy hire, adding former University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to man the same role for the pro team. Grubb was coming off a playoff run with Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. This seemed like an exciting development for the passing game of Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigb, and Tyler Lockett. While JSN did enjoy a massive breakout season, the others flopped and now there are rumors the team could move on from Smith. Oh, and Grubb was one and done. Seattle hired Klint Kubiak as their new play caller, a job he held in New Orleans last season. Perhaps Sam Howell inherits the starting gig or the team could go shopping if they give up on the veteran Smith.

1.09 – Baker & the Bucs Lose Another OC

2023 was a big season for the Buccaneers and veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield. The former top overall pick, who was bounced from Cleveland before passing through Los Angeles and eventually to Tampa. Mayfield set new career highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28) and fantasy points (274.1). Then, his offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, landed the head job in Carolina. I have to admit, I was a bit worried. Mayfield’s production had never come close to what we saw in 2023 and now he and the rest of the key offensive stars would be faced with a new coordinator. Fast forward a year and we’re back in the same spot. Oh, and Mayfield improved on each of those numbers for the second straight year as he finished as the QB4 on the year. Liam Coen moved on to the Jaguars and the Buccaneers stayed in-house with their next hire, promoting Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. Now, I’m done doubting Mayfield and his offense.

1.10 – Can Coen Rescue TLaw?

Speaking of Coen, he now has a chance for another important reclamation project. After becoming the new head coach in Jacksonville, Coen’s top task will be righting the ship for former top overall pick Trevor Lawrence. The former Clemson star missed much of the season and averaged just 14.5 fantasy points per game. Lawrence hasn’t been bad during his four seasons in the league. There has never really been any suggestion of him being benched or the Jags looking for a replacement, but he just hasn’t lived up to the unreal hype placed upon him when entering the league. Lawrence’s value has tumbled as a result of his slow play and injury, falling to the QB23 spot in our latest dynasty ADP. That is easily the lowest mark of his career. Based on Coen’s work with Mayfield and Will Levis previously, I am excited to see what Lawrence, Brian Thomas, and the rest can do in 2025. Lawrence is the easiest buy of the off-season in superflex leagues.

1.11 – How do the Rookie RBs Fit in?

If you caught my latest Off-Season Movement article, you know how many jobs are available in backfields around the league. Not only are there a lot of jobs, but some very appealing spots as well, including Denver, the Chargers, Minnesota, along with Cleveland, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. The good news for those teams and many others, is the sheer number of talented rookie ball carriers available. In addition to some of the potential top-40 picks like Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and Kaleb Johnson, the class is loaded with backs that are likely to find their way into Day Two…Quinshon Judkins, Ollie Gordon, Cam Skattebo, Devin Neal, Dylan Sampson, RJ Harvey. The list goes on and on. Not all of these exciting rookies will land in an ideal spot that will boost their dynasty value, but there are enough players and team needs to create some juicy dynasty values come May.

1.12 – ARich’s Last Chance

Former first-rounder Anthony Richardson played just a handful of games as a rookie in 2023 but he flashed enough upside and piled up the fantasy points when he was on the field. That was enough to make him one of the top target players last off-season. Many dynasty managers ignored the injury woes and poor passing numbers and made Richardson their cornerstone piece as he carried a first-round dynasty ADP for much of the off-season. Richardson struggled massively in his second season, missing time with injuries and managing just two top-ten fantasy games when he was in the lineup. Since the season concluded, ESPN’s Adam Schefter has already suggested that quarterback was an area of need for the Colts, while local beat writers have linked free agent Justin Fields to the Colts. Richardson, a top-six dynasty quarterback for much of last off-season, is now the QB18 and set to fall further if these doubts linger through the coming months.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 – Commanders Add Weapons for Daniels
2.02 – Veteran WRs on the Market
2.03 – The Battle for Rookie QB3
2.04 – Shanahan’s Impact on the Boys
2.05 – Olave’s Continued Recovery
2.06 – Purdy’s Payday
2.07 – Steelers have no QB…or RB
2.08 – Get Josh Allen a WR1
2.09 – A CMComeback
2.10 – Can Cards’ Stars Bounce Back?
2.11 – Drake Maye Needs Help
2.12 – The Real Bryce Young

Monday Mocks: Off-season Storylines