Connor LaPlante: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to another installment in our new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: CONNOR LAPLANTE

Fantasy football involves a thorough evaluation of player values, taking into account market/consensus value and personal values/projections. The interaction between these values is crucial for success in dynasty.

Consensus values tend to overvalue young players, but the unpredictable nature of the NFL season makes it necessary to prioritize experienced veterans in dynasty rankings. These players have a proven track record, and past performance is the strongest predictor of future performance.

The success of a player is not only dependent on their past performance, but also on factors such as team dynamics, coaching, and supporting cast. Fantasy scoring follows a power law distribution, which emphasizes the importance of finding players with high upside potential.

To identify these players, it is important to understand the situation they are in. Conventional wisdom suggests that talent alone rises to the top, but in reality, the situation a player is in plays a crucial role in their success. This is why I take cost into consideration when making my rankings and look for low-cost players who may have high upside if the consensus perception of their situation is incorrect.

It’s important to note that situation analysis is very difficult to navigate, especially this early in the offseason, but I made my best effort to utilize what we do know as of now. Admittedly I am still in the process of creating more objective player values based on past performance, so just know that these rankings will probably look very different in a couple of months.

Rankings: 1 - 24

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
1	1	0	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	23
2	2	0	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	22
3	3	0	AJ Brown	WR	PHI	25
4	5	1	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	24
5	9	4	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	28
6			2023 Rookie 1.01
7	12	5	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	25
8	13	5	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	26
9	19	10	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	27
10	6	-4	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	21
11	7	-4	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	24
12	11	-1	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	23
13	8	-5	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	24
14	4	-10	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	23
15	15	0	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	22
16	20	4	DK Metcalf	WR	SEA	25
17			2023 Rookie 1.02
18	21	3	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	29
19	16	-3	Davante Adams	WR	LV	30
20	23	3	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	29
21			2023 Rookie 1.03
22	10	-12	Kenneth Walker	RB	SEA	22
23	14	-9	Travis Etienne	RB	JAC	24
24	18	-6	Chris Olave	WR	NO	22

One thing you’ll notice off the bat is that I am low on CeeDee Lamb. In my opinion, his 2022 season was fueled by the genius of Kellen Moore. Who they inexplicably fired at the end of the 2022 season. Moore is now joining forces with the Chargers for the 2023 season, and I cannot wait to see how he utilizes Austin Ekeler.

I have Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffery both 5 spots above ADP. There’s not much to say. These guys are just studs, not to mention I love both Brian Daboll and Kyle Shannahan respectively. As you can see I’m lower on a host of younger RBs, including Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne. This is generally because I am a fan of antifragility, but it’s also because I don’t trust these players at this price.

As far as rookie picks go, I placed them based on the general feel of current consensus values. Pick value is not something I have researched enough to form a contrarian opinion on.

Rankings: 25 - 48

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
25	17	-8	Deebo Samuel	WR	SF	27
26	24	-2	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	26
27	22	-5	Drake London	WR	ATL	21
28	27	-1	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	26
29	28	-1	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	27
30	40	10	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	24
31	25	-6	Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	24
32	30	-2	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	27
33	32	-1	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	26
34	34	0	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	24
35	35	0	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	24
36	42	6	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	24
37	49	12	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	26
38	47	9	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	26
39	60	21	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAC	23
40			2023 Rookie 1.04
41	33	-8	Michael Pittman	WR	IND	25
42	36	-6	Treylon Burks	WR	TEN	22
43	46	3	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	33
44	37	-7	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	24
45	70	25	Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	25
46	61	15	Justin Fields	QB	CHI	23
47			2023 Rookie 1.05
48	43	-5	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	27

The main thing you’ll notice about this section of the ranks is that there are a lot of QBs in this range. Earlier in this article I mentioned how fantasy scoring is in a power law distribution. This means the best players at a position are so much better than everyone else. With that in mind, QBs do have higher value in 1QB dynasty than you might think. There are so many young and exciting QBs that you could take a shot at in this range of the draft, and I think they all have a reasonable path to be within the top 5 QBs in any given year. I’m especially excited to see Trevor Lawerence chucking deep balls to Calvin Ridley. Oh, what a beautiful sight that will be.

Rankings: 49 - 72

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
49	53	4	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	28
50	57	7	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	27
51	29	-22	Nick Chubb	RB	CLE	27
52	39	-13	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	29
53	89	36	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	24
54	65	11	Diontae Johnson	WR	PIT	26
55			2023 Rookie 1.06
56	45	-11	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	27
57	50	-7	JK Dobbins	RB	BAL	24
58	73	15	David Montgomery	RB	CHI	25
59			2023 Rookie 1.07
60	84	24	Rachaad White	RB	TB	24
61	79	18	James Cook	RB	BUF	23
62	26	-36	D'Andre Swift	RB	DET	24
63	41	-22	Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	25
64	66	2	Miles Sanders	RB	PHI	25
65	51	-14	George Pickens	WR	PIT	21
66	31	-35	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	22
67	44	-23	DJ Moore	WR	CAR	25
68	55	-13	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	23
69	77	8	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	27
70	48	-22	Marquise Brown	WR	ARI	25
71	59	-12	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	24
72	85	13	Calvin Ridley	WR	JAC	28

The only reason Tua Tagovailoa isn’t higher is because I am concerned with his health. I am no doctor, but the concussions he sustained in the 2022 season were very scary. Diontae Johnson is someone I am keeping a very close eye on. He somehow achieved the impossible in 2022, getting targeted 147 times without scoring a touchdown. However, there is reason for optimism, according to FiveThirtyEight he had the best Open Score (99) among qualifying receivers. Not only am I high on Johnson, but I am also high on Najee Harris. This Steelers offense should be better with Kenny Pickett’s rookie season behind him.

There was nothing to be inspired by in Kyle Pitts’ sophomore season. He’s supposedly a unicorn, but I’m just out at this point. If I miss, I miss.

Rankings: 73 - 96

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
73			2023 Rookie 1.08
74	52	-22	Christian Watson	WR	GB	23
75	54	-21	Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	22
76	56	-20	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	21
77			2023 Rookie 1.09
78	58	-20	TJ Hockenson	TE	MIN	25
79	68	-11	Christian Kirk	WR	JAC	26
80	72	-8	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	28
81			2023 Rookie 1.10
82	63	-19	Mike Evans	WR	TB	29
83	95	12	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	30
84	81	-3	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	30
85			2023 Rookie 1.11
86	64	-22	Amari Cooper	WR	CLE	28
87	71	-16	AJ Dillon	RB	GB	24
88	86	-2	Cam Akers	RB	LAR	23
89	38	-51	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	22
90			2023 Rookie 1.12
91	62	-29	Jahan Dotson	WR	WAS	22
92	90	-2	Darnell Mooney	WR	CHI	25
93	67	-26	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	23
94	78	-16	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	27
95			2023 Rookie 2.01
96	69	-27	George Kittle	TE	SF	29

Here is where things start to get a little dead. I’m probably a little too low on Javontae Williams, but he couldn’t beat out Melvin Gordon. I don’t see Javontae ever becoming a lead workhorse back in the NFL. I didn’t like Williams to begin with and his ACL tear didn’t help matters.

Deshaun Watson and the Browns didn’t show much promise at all this past year. I don’t hate it as a dart throw. Tyler Lockett is continually undervalued every single year, so I decided to show him some love. It seems like Geno Smith will be his QB for the next few years and I’m not mad at it.

Rankings: 97 - 120

Rank	AVG	+ / -	Name	Pos	Team	Age
97	75	-22	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	28
98	88	-10	Leonard Fournette	RB	TB	28
99	76	-23	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	ARI	30
100	80	-20	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	26
101	74	-27	Gabriel Davis	WR	BUF	23
102	82	-20	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	29
103			2023 Rookie 2.02
104	148	44	Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	25
105	94	-11	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	24
106	87	-19	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	24
107	91	-16	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	22
108			2023 Rookie 2.03
109	83	-26	Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	22
110	92	-18	James Conner	RB	ARI	27
111	93	-18	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	27
112			2023 Rookie 2.04
113	96	-17	Chase Claypool	WR	CHI	24
114	97	-17	Darren Waller	TE	LV	30
115	107	-8	Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	24
116	112	-4	Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	23
117			2023 Rookie 2.05
118	98	-20	David Njoku	TE	CLE	26
119	101	-18	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	22
120	99	-21	Dalton Schultz	TE	DAL	26

I really loved the efficient brand of football that Daboll had Daniel Jones playing. He rushed for 708 yards on 120 rush attempts, which is quite an impressive performance on the ground. If the Giants can give their receiving room an upgrade, Jones will be a very intriguing pick in 2023 startup drafts.

It’s pretty clear at this point that Gabe Davis is mostly just a deep threat. Going forward I expect the Bills to bring in another WR to be the #2 option after Stefon Diggs.

In all transparency, these rankings are by no means perfect or representative of where I will have them in a couple of months. I’m sure the models I have in the works will drastically sway where I have players ranked.

Connor LaPlante: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained