Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 17

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 16 QB1s

Veteran Joe Flacco was once again a huge story as he torched the Texans’ defense for three scores on his way to the QB3 finish for the week. Flacco is now just 6.6 fantasy points behind Deshaun Watson for the season despite playing two fewer games. In what appears to be his final start for the team, Russell Wilson posted solid fantasy numbers against one of the league’s top pass defenses, only to ultimately lose the game to the Patriots. That loss sealed the fate of the Broncos and likely ended Wilson’s tenure in Denver.

Season-Long QB1s

Jordan Love has more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes. I know there are many factors that play into that and much more context is needed, but it really is shocking. Following the strong fantasy performance, Wilson joined the top twelve as the QB9, although he’s sure to fall out again as he won’t play the final two games. Also joining the QB1 group after last week were Tua Tagovailoa and Baker Mayfield. They replaced the benched Sam Howell and the injured Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

Last week was a rough one for the 49ers and Brock Purdy, who fell from MVP favorite to some suggesting he was actually benched in favor of Sam Darnold. Regardless, as long as Purdy is healthy, he should be able to bounce back in a big way against the Commanders, who have allowed a league-high 12 QB1 games on the season. Washington also allows a league-worst 24.8 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. It’s a Purdy week!

The Jaguars are next in line, having given up ten QB1 performances. This week, they face Bryce Young and the Panthers. Young has only posted two QB1 games on the season but one did come just last week against the Packers.

Other defenses to target when looking for your Week Seventeen quarterback include the Eagles (vs. Kyler Murray), Chargers (vs. Jarrett Stidham), and Buccaneers (vs. Derek Carr.)

The Ravens shut down Purdy last week and have still only given up two QB1 games on the season. They hope to stay hot against the offensive-minded Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. This is a tough week to rely on Tagovailoa, even in a superflex league. The Panthers and Jets have surrendered only three QB1 games each. The Panthers travel to Jacksonville, likely facing backup CJ Beathard, while the Jets will try to slow the red-hot Flacco later tonight.

Other matchups to avoid, if possible, include the Chiefs (vs. Jake Browning), Browns (vs. Trevor Siemian), and Patriots (vs. Josh Allen.)

Running Backs

Week 16 RB1s

Breece Hall went wild in Week Sixteen, carrying the Jets to victory and many fantasy teams into title games. Hall rushed for 95 yards, caught 12 balls for 96 yards, and scored twice on his way to a massive performance as the RB1 for the week. Rookie Chris Rodriguez found the end zone twice as he filled in for the injured Brian Robinson, notching his first-ever RB1 game.

Season-Long RB1s

Hall’s RB1 game helped to push him from the RB12 all the way up to the RB5 spot for the season. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs also scored twice last week and he’s now the RB6 on the season. Fallers for the week include Alvin Kamara (RB5 to RB7), Joe Mixon (RB6 to RB9), and James Cook (RB7 to RB11.) Bijan Robinson is back in the season-long RB1 group, replacing Tony Pollard.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals have allowed 18 top-24 fantasy performances and over 29 fantasy points per game, both worst in the league. This week, they face the Eagles and D’Andre Swift. After a hot stretch early in the season, Swift has significantly slowed, posting just one RB1 game since Week Six. This matchup could allow him to end the season on a high note. The Colts (vs. Josh Jacobs?) and Seahawks (vs. Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren) have each given up 17 top-24 performances to opposing backfields, putting their opponents in play each week.

Other defenses to target when selecting your runners this week include the Broncos (vs. Austin Ekeler), Commanders (vs. Christian McCaffrey), Panthers (vs. Travis Etienne), and Jets (vs. Jerome Ford.)

The Lions have been consistently strong against the run all season. That’s bad news for Pollard and the Cowboys this week. Pollard has been an inconsistent performer all season but hasn’t finished inside the top 15 backs since Week Thirteen. In the past two weeks, he’s finished as the RB36 and RB46. It will be tough to use Pollard in your title games this week.

Other matchups that make me nervous this week include the Rams (vs. Saquon Barkley), Falcons (vs. Khalil Herbert), Buccaneers (vs. Kamara), and Dolphins (vs. Gus Edwards.)

Wide Receivers

Week 16 WR1s

It was a historic day for Amari Cooper, who totaled 11 receptions for 265 yards and two touchdowns. That’s just the seventeenth time in league history a receiver has hit that mark in a game. That’s also the second-highest fantasy score for a receiver this season, behind only Ja’Marr Chase in Week Five. It’s good to see Justin Jefferson back among the WR1s after he totaled 141 yards on six receptions.

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Season-Long WR1s

The season-long wide receiver list really got a shake up last week as a few players posted monster performances and even more laid disappointing eggs. Amon-Ra St. Brown, now the WR3, swapped places with the injured Keenan Allen. Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase also traded places. Rookie Puka Nacua jumped from WR11 to WR7, while DJ Moore slid two spots. Despite an up and down season, Cooper is now among the WR1 group, replacing Deebo Samuel.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The good news is the Eagles didn’t allow a WR1 game last week. The bad news is they did let Giants receiver Darius Slayton post a WR2 performance, giving them 24 on the season. This week, Philly faces the Cardinals and with Marquise Brown banged up, fantasy managers might be left chasing Greg Dortch or Rondale Moore. Like Slayton, those players could end up producing solid games, but they can’t be started, even in this matchup.

That leaves us targeting the Chargers and Commanders next. Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk should have their way with Washington, but who knows what to expect from a Broncos offense with a new quarterback and a banged up WR1 in Courtland Sutton. This is another spot to be very careful with this week.

Finally, a few other matchups worth chasing this week include the Buccaneers (vs. Chris Olave), Titans (vs. Nico Collins?), Giants (vs. Cooper Kupp/Nacua), and Jaguars (vs. Adam Thielen/CJ Chark.)

The Broncos have only allowed five top-24 performances to receiver all season. Although I am a little worried about this team waving the white flag, I am still staying away from Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, which are easy calls.

The Falcons (vs. DJ Moore), Browns (vs. Garrett Wilson), and Steelers (vs. DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett) are other teams to stay away from when making lineup decisions. With some of these players involved, that will prove very difficult this week.

Tight Ends

Week 16 TE1s

Overall, it was a relatively quiet week for the entire tight end position, with no player eclipsing 20 fantasy points, which hadn’t happened since Week One. As he did late last season, Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is showing some promise. We’ll see if dynasty managers fall as hard for him this offseason as they (we) did last year.

© Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Season-Long TE1s

The top twelve tight ends were almost completely unchanged following last week’s action. We did see Kyle Pitts rejoin the TE1 group, replacing rookie Dalton Kincaid. Barring a massive collapse, the current top-nine fantasy scorers here are essentially locked in as TE1s for this season.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals continue to be the team to target when it comes to the tight end position. This week, that means starting Travis Kelce. Y’know, in case you weren’t sure about that. Seriously though, Kelce has lacked the huge ceiling games this season. He has exceeded 23 fantasy points just once all season. Facing the Bengals this week will feel like a must-win game for both squads and Kelce could become the league-winner he has been for years.

Other players with solid matchups include Gerald Everett (vs. DEN), Okonkwo (vs. HOU), Pitts (vs. CHI), and Juwan Johnson (vs. TB.)

The Cowboys and Titans have allowed only two TE1 games all year. This week, Dallas faces the massive challenge of stopping rookie Sam LaPorta and his Lions teammates. Even with this matchup, I’m sticking with the rookie. The Titans face Houston, where the offense has dried up following the injury to CJ Stroud. That will be a situation to monitor, but it won’t be easy clicking the button next to Dalton Schlutz’s name this week.

Other players with challenging matchups with week include Kincaid/Dawson Knox (vs. NE), George Kittle (vs. WAS), and Dallas Goedert (vs. ARI.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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