Dynasty Fantasy Football Second-Year Leap: Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
In this series, I want to highlight some former rookies I expect to take a massive step forward in year two. I’ll look at various rookies, from those who had solid rookie years to those who did almost nothing in year one. To completely break down each player, I’ll split these pieces into five sections: college career and NFL Draft profile, rookie statistics, dynasty ADP analysis, future situation, and final recommendation.
If you want to read my previous entries, I’ve included the complete list at the bottom of this article. I also added links to my 2021 series, so you can look at last year’s breakouts and how they fared. This time, I want to discuss a player who had a terrible rookie year, Trevor Lawrence. He was one of my favorite rookie prospects of all time, but he failed to live up to the hype last season. However, I expect him to take a huge step forward in 2022. Let’s jump into why!
College Career and NFL Draft Profile
Lawrence was one of the best college football quarterbacks of all time.
Charts courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He led Clemson to an undefeated season, 15-0 record, and a national title as a freshman, taking the college football world by storm. He failed to win another championship in his college career, but he improved his completion percentage and yards/attempt each year.
Additionally, he added some rushing ability, especially during his 2019 campaign.
He doesn’t possess the rushing upside of Justin Fields or Trey Lance, but he scored nine rushing touchdowns in 2019 and eight in 2020 to add to his impressive passing statistics. I fully expected him to translate those skills to the NFL, potentially similarly to Josh Allen. Allen had similar rushing statistics to Lawrence in college, and he consistently adds fantasy value with his legs in the NFL.
After 2018, most analysts and NFL Draft scouts knew Lawrence would be the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Even though the 2021 class contained many other solid quarterbacks, no one ever doubted that the Jaguars would select him with the first pick. After the NFL Draft, he entered the NFL as a first-round startup pick and the QB8 in May 2021’s DLF superflex ADP. He was also the unquestioned 1.01 pick in almost all superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
Rookie Statistics
Unfortunately, Lawrence’s rookie year didn’t work out as planned.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, he truly struggled in 2021. He went 3-14 with an abysmal 59.6% completion rate and threw 12 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions. Somehow, he averaged only 6.0 yards per attempt, second-worst among qualifying quarterbacks behind only Jacoby Brissett. There’s no way to find a silver lining in his 2021 performance. It was purely awful.
Lawrence’s rookie year is similar from a fantasy football perspective.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
He finished as a QB1 in only two of 17 games, while he was outside the top 24 quarterbacks in seven of 17. Generally, the worst fantasy quarterbacks present no ceiling and no floor, and Lawrence fits that definition perfectly.
However, judging Lawrence based on his play alone is not fair. Former Jaguars’ head coach Urban Meyer created an unacceptable work environment, where he kicked players, caused multiple distractions, violated practice rules, and failed to produce any legitimate gameplans. As a result, I believe Meyer’s Jaguars were the worst-run team in NFL history, and it’s stunning that they even won three games.
Future Situation
The Jaguars hired proven winner Doug Pederson as their new head coach. Somehow, Pederson won a Super Bowl with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles, both of whom flopped after they left the Eagles. Therefore, I think Pederson can get the best out of Lawrence, although it’s difficult to be worse than Meyer was.
However, the Jaguars still failed to put high-end weapons around Lawrence in their offense. Instead, they signed Christian Kirk to a bloated contract as their WR1, and they added Evan Engram and Zay Jones as well. Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and even Laquon Treadwell contributed in depth last year, and all remain on the current roster. Additionally, 2021 first-rounder Travis Etienne is now fully healthy from his Lisfranc injury and will serve as a receiving option from the backfield. James Robinson is also practicing after his Achilles tear, although it’s unclear if he’s 100%.
The Jaguars now have a lot of depth, although I still believe they have a below-average cast of weapons. But for now, they gave Lawrence enough help to expect a year-two jump, although the offense may not come into its final form until next year. Luckily for Lawrence, there’s no doubt that the Jaguars are fully committed to him. They spent the top overall pick to acquire him, and he was one of the best quarterback prospects ever. As a result, there’s no danger to Lawrence’s job, even if he has a relatively poor 2022 campaign.
Dynasty ADP Analysis
Right now, Lawrence is the QB12 and 23.75 overall in DLF’s July superflex ADP. I think that value seems slightly low, especially given his pedigree. However, if he takes a second-year leap, he has top-five overall upside. I’m not saying he will become Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, but there’s no denying he has room to grow in value. Therefore, I like drafting him at his current cost, and I’ve seen him go in the third round in many superflex startup drafts this off-season.
Trade Options and Final Recommendation
In contrast to his current ADP, I rank Lawrence at QB8 and 15th overall. Therefore, I would highly recommend drafting him in current superflex startup drafts, especially if you can get him in the third round. If I started my draft with Josh Allen at the 1.01, and I could get Lawrence at the round two-three turn along with a top running back or wide receiver, I’d be ecstatic.
Additionally, let’s look at potential trade options for Lawrence using the DLF Trade Finder.
This trade seems relatively fair, as Deebo Samuel is worth slightly less than Lawrence in my eyes. However, given that Samuel is already 26 years old, I think I’d likely make this trade. Adding a second-rounder to Samuel seems reasonable to get up to Lawrence.
Now, this offer makes little to no sense whatsoever. In a 14-team superflex league, Lawrence carries even more value than usual, while Matt Ryan and David Montgomery pale in comparison. I’d snap accept the Lawrence side without a second thought.
I wanted to close with these two deals, as they represent similar ideas. In both cases, Lawrence went for an older quarterback and another piece. However, I can’t imagine that the 1.03 is enough to make up the difference between Tom Brady and Lawrence, and Allen Robinson doesn’t close the gap between Kirk Cousins and Lawrence. Both of these deals seem realistic, and I’d easily make both of them.
Overall, I believe Lawrence is an excellent target in both startups and existing leagues. He should find more success in year two than he did in year one and then increase in dynasty value. Buy in on him now before it’s too late.
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