Dynasty Fantasy Football Second-Year Leap: Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

In this series, I want to highlight some rookies I expect to take a massive step forward in year two. I’ll look at various rookies, from those who had solid rookie years to those who did almost nothing in year one. To completely break down each player, I’ll split these pieces into five sections: college career and NFL Draft profile, rookie statistics, dynasty ADP analysis, future situation, and final recommendation. I also added links to my 2021 series, so you can look at last year’s breakouts and how they fared. With that said, let’s jump into it!

College Career and NFL Draft Profile

I wrote about Pitts back in May 2021, after the Falcons drafted him fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. At the time, I noted that he was the best tight end prospect ever, at least for fantasy football. I won’t rehash my entire article, but he was a fantastic college producer at Florida.

Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

Somehow, he scored 12 receiving touchdowns in only eight games in 2020. He then demolished the NFL Combine, running a ridiculous 4.44-second 40-yard dash. I couldn’t find any weaknesses in Pitts’ game, and I left that section of my article essentially blank. So it was no surprise he went as a top-five pick.

Additionally, so much has changed since then for the Falcons. In that piece, I discussed Pitts’ place as Matt Ryan’s third target behind Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones while including Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst as other potential target competitors. Of course, just a year later, none of those five players will play for the Falcons in 2022. I wanted to point out that dichotomy to show that situations change so fast in the NFL and recommend avoiding making rookie draft decisions based on them. Talent and draft capital stick with players throughout their careers while situations do not.

Rookie Statistics

Interestingly, some dynasty managers seem disappointed in Pitts’ rookie season, even though he had one of the best fantasy performances for a rookie tight end in NFL history.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

As you can see, he totaled 68 receptions for 1,026 yards and one touchdown in 2021, leading the Falcons in targets, receptions, and yards. But, unfortunately, his one touchdown hurt his fantasy value. He still finished as the TE6, but he only scored 10.39 fantasy PPG, 11th among tight ends.

However, I think it’s beyond evident that Pitts is perhaps the top candidate for positive touchdown regression in the entire NFL. Despite leading the team in all other receiving categories, scoring only one of the Falcons’ 20 receiving touchdowns represents an obvious outlier and will not continue moving forward. He also displayed impressive efficiency, averaging 9.3 yards/target. For comparison, that mark is equal to Ridley’s career from 2018 to 2020 and more than a yard greater than Gage’s 2021 output.

Generally, most dynasty managers know that receptions and yards are far stickier statistics than touchdowns and are happy with Pitts’ rookie year. But I encounter some resistance to that take on Twitter, especially from those managers who fail to look beyond pure fantasy points. In dynasty leagues, though, I recommend taking a long-term look. Pitts only turned 21 years old during his rookie year and played on a terrible offense. His rookie year suggests he will have an incredible NFL and fantasy football career.

Future Situation

As I mentioned above, the Falcons have gone through various changes to their offense. Right now, they have a relatively barren offensive depth chart. Marcus Mariota is their current starting quarterback, although they may draft a quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft. Either way, none of the 2022 rookies are great passers, and I almost hope that the Falcons bypass quarterback in this year’s draft to target a 2023 quarterback.

Additionally, the Falcons are weak at wide receiver, as Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd, Frank Darby, and KhaDarel Hodge are their current depth chart. None of those players should be a starting wide receiver on any NFL team, but it’s currently all the Falcons have. Luckily, they have hybrid running back Cordarrelle Patterson to fill some of the void, although he only had 52 receptions for 548 yards and five touchdowns in 2021.

Even if the Falcons go all in at wide receiver and pick one at both eighth overall and in the second round, Pitts will remain the top target on the team. They will also have a weak overall depth chart and no serious target competition at a tight end. Eventually, the Falcons will find their next franchise quarterback, and Pitts will be fine. Considering his age, I have zero concerns about his future situation from a dynasty perspective.

Dynasty ADP Analysis

In April’s DLF dynasty ADP data, Pitts comes in as the sixth player drafted with an ADP of 7.00. He’s also the clear dynasty TE1, well ahead of Mark Andrews, who is more than a round after him. Best of all, Pitts’ value curve looks excellent.

Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

He entered the NFL at 36 overall, and he saw a consistent rise in value from then until March 2022, peaking at fifth overall. Since November, he’s been a first-round startup pick, which is impressive considering that DLF startup drafts aren’t even tight end premium. There’s no doubt that Pitts will likely remain a first-round startup pick for years, as he doesn’t even turn 22 until October. I rank him sixth overall in my own 1QB dynasty rankings, precisely in line with his current ADP.

Trade Options and Final Recommendation

At DLF, the two main trade tools are the DLF Trade Analyzer and the DLF Trade Finder. In the analyzer, Pitts comes in with a value of 792.7, 11th among players in a 1QB format. Interestingly, his trade value is a few spots lower than his ADP value, which may suggest a buying opportunity.

For comparison, here are a couple of visualizations of Pitts’ value compared to draft picks.

The second picture is more interesting to me, as it suggests that you can almost buy Pitts for two 2023 first-round picks. While I love the 2023 rookie class, there’s no way I would ever sell a first-round startup pick for only two future firsts. Typically, first-round startup picks should return at least three future first-rounders, even in a strong class like 2023.

As for the trade finder, let’s look at some recent Pitts deals.

This first deal is mind-blowing to me, as 1.09 and 2.11 are not an acceptable package for Pitts. If I could acquire him for this price or anywhere near it, I would jump at the chance. But I don’t believe this price represents the typical Pitts trade.

Now, this trade seems more reasonable, as the side trading Pitts away at least got some decent assets in the 1.05 and Rashod Bateman. However, considering that it’s a tight end premium format, I can’t possibly give up Pitts for a bunch of maybes. Bateman is a decent young wide receiver, and the 1.05 rookie pick could be another one in Garrett Wilson, Drake London, or Treylon Burks. Unfortunately, Cole Kmet and a 2023 second-rounder don’t do much for me compared to Pitts. The package side is at least a 2023 first-rounder short of Pitts’ value.

This final trade was more interesting, as Lamar Jackson is a stud asset in a superflex dynasty format, just like Pitts. I would rather have Jackson straight up over Pitts, and I’m not sure a 2023 second for third-round swap does enough to change my mind, especially if it’s not a tight end premium format. Therefore, I would prefer the Jackson side here.

Overall, I prefer the Pitts side in most recent trades I saw in the trade finder. It seems like his trade value has dipped after the Falcons traded Matt Ryan to the Colts, even if his ADP value has remained essentially the same. If you can acquire Pitts at a discount, I would do so now, as you won’t be able to buy him after he scores more touchdowns in 2022. Pitts is a rare tight end who has the upside to be the top overall player in startup ADP, and it’s tough to put a legitimate trade price on that type of asset.

2021 Entries: D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool, Harrison Bryant, Gabriel Davis, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Lynn Bowden, Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darnell Mooney, Bryan Edwards, Jerry Jeudy, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman

Dynasty Fantasy Football Second-Year Leap: Kyle Pitts, TE ATL