Second-Year Leap: Joe Burrow, QB CIN
In this series, I want to highlight some rookies I expect to take a massive step forward in year two. I’ll look at various players, from those who had solid rookie years to those who did almost nothing in year one. To completely break down each player, I’ll split these pieces into five sections: college career and NFL Draft profile, rookie statistics, dynasty ADP analysis, future situation, and final recommendation. If you want to read my previous entries, I’ve included all the links at the bottom of this article.
Now, I want to go in a slightly different direction and discuss Joe Burrow. Yes, Burrow had a strong rookie season, but it was cut short by injury. I believe Burrow is every bit the prospect that he was coming out of LSU, and I think we’re going to see a massive year two leap from him.
Let’s jump into it!
College Career and NFL Draft Profile
Burrow had an up and down college career, starting at Ohio State before transferring to LSU. He didn’t see much playing time at Ohio State, as JT Barrett beat him out for the starting job in 2016 and 2017, while Dwayne Haskins was the primary backup.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
However, Burrow eventually earned the chance to start at LSU in 2018, although he mostly failed. He completed a miserable 57.8% of his attempts, averaging only 7.6 yards/attempt. He only threw 16 touchdowns and five interceptions during his 2018 season. To give an idea of Burrow’s stock after 2018, he wasn’t on the radar in most devy leagues. LSU planned to use Burrow as their 2019 starter, but he wasn’t truly an NFL Draft prospect. He was just another college quarterback.
But as we all know, Burrow lit the world on fire in 2019. He broke multiple collegiate records, turning every player on LSU into a star. He easily won the Heisman Trophy while throwing a whopping 60 touchdowns and 5,671 passing yards. He also added 115 carries for 368 yards and five touchdowns, displaying dual-threat ability. Because of his strong season, Burrow was an easy choice at first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft for the Bengals, who needed a quarterback to replace Andy Dalton. He was also the clear 1.01 in most superflex rookie drafts and a late-first rounder in 1 QB rookie drafts.
Rookie Statistics
Burrow immediately became the Bengals’ starter, playing in ten games before tearing up his knee in week 11.
He struggled slightly from a fantasy perspective, as he only threw 13 touchdowns in his ten games. However, he did complete 65.3% of his passes and averaged 268.8 yards/game, a 4,300-yard pace over 16 games. He averaged 18.67 fantasy points per game, 14th among quarterbacks who played five or more contests.
The DLF player scoring app also provides a good view of Burrow’s overall 2020 performance.
This chart shows Burrow’s distribution of fantasy finishes during his ten-game sample from 2020. He finished as a weekly QB2 in six of his ten games while only landing in the top 12 three times. But for a rookie, he provided superflex value as a QB2, although he certainly didn’t have the type of year that Justin Herbert had, for example. If Burrow had completed the season, I think most dynasty managers would have deemed his rookie year a success, even if he didn’t entirely pay off the 1.01 rookie selection they spent on him in superflex leagues.
Dynasty ADP Analysis
Unfortunately, I don’t think we get much from looking at Burrow’s 1QB ADP graph.
His ADP has barely changed through his NFL career, settling at 95.5 overall and QB10 in March’s ADP data. He peaked at 85.75 in November 2020, and he hit a post-draft low in August 2020 at 118.33. Typically, I don’t like to reach on quarterbacks in 1QB startups, so I’ll likely never have any Burrow shares in that format.
But Burrow’s superflex value is far more intriguing. In March’s superflex ADP mocks, Burrow was the ninth overall player selected as the QB8. He went ahead of every non-QB outside of Christian McCaffrey, and he even had a higher ADP than Trevor Lawrence. I would personally take Lawrence over Burrow, along with a few other non-QBs, but it’s fair that he carries extreme value in the superflex format.
Future Situation
Burrow’s future situation is likely the most significant positive for him in dynasty formats. The Bengals utilized the first overall pick on him in 2020, moving off a longtime starter in Dalton. Therefore, they will give Burrow every possible opportunity to succeed and use all of their resources to build the best possible team around him.
Right now, the Bengals already have a decent set of offensive weapons. They recently signed star running back Joe Mixon to a four-year, $48 million extension, which begins this year. They also have slot receiver Tyler Boyd on a relatively cheap deal, with cap hits around $10 million for each of the following three seasons. And best of all, they found Tee Higgins in the second round last year, who remains on a cost-controlled rookie deal through 2023.
The Bengals will continue to add weapons around Burrow as they move into 2021. They hold the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and they essentially have three options. They could select Burrow’s college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, providing an excellent second outside receiver across from Higgins with Boyd in the slot. If they don’t want another receiver, Kyle Pitts would be a perfect option, filling the void they have at tight end with a generational prospect. And lastly, Penei Sewell is an excellent offensive lineman who could protect Burrow from the harm he faced in 2020.
No matter who they pick, that player will become a core piece of Burrow’s future, improving his outlook. I expect them to make Sewell their pick if he’s there, as there are many other receivers and tight ends in this draft that they could add in the second and third rounds. Imagine if they take Sewell in the first, Brevin Jordan or Pat Freiermuth in the second, and an upside receiver like Dyami Brown in the third. That would put excellent weapons and protection around Burrow for years to come.
I know that there are some concerns surrounding Burrow’s injury. However, luckily DLF recently added an injury expert, Jeff Mueller, to our writing staff. You can follow him @jmthrivept, and he gave me his take on Burrow’s injury and recovery. Here it is, in full.
Now, I know that that’s a long image, but essentially, Jeff thinks that Burrow should be ready for week one, although he might be a bit rusty at all, given that it’s a tight timeline. And most important, he doesn’t find any issues with Burrow’s knee moving forward. Therefore, once Burrow fully recovers, he should return to 100% of what he was pre-injury. Hearing this take from an injury expert like Jeff gave me far more confidence in Burrow than I had previously.
Additionally, as always, remember that dynasty fantasy football is a long-term game. Burrow will provide value over the next five years, and I believe he will make a massive leap in year two. Even if there are some minor injury issues, there’s no reason to shy away from him based on that, especially in superflex formats.
Final Recommendation
Clearly, dynasty managers agree with me that Burrow is in for an excellent year two and a strong career, given his first-round superflex ADP. However, ADP is only one measure of dynasty value. Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to pull some superflex trades involving Burrow.
In this first deal, one dynasty manager acquired Burrow and Tee Higgins for Calvin Ridley and the 1.04 rookie pick. I love Ridley and this rookie class, but this deal isn’t even close for me. Give me the stud quarterback and the lesser receiver every day of the week. There might be a good quarterback at 1.04, but I guarantee that prospect won’t be on Burrow’s level. For the record, the DLF Trade Analyzer agrees with me.
Once again, here’s another trade where I love the Burrow side.
If I could acquire Burrow for only Stafford, OJ Howard, and the 2.03 rookie pick, I would probably do cartwheels and break my hand on the accept button. Stafford is a fine, older quarterback, but he’s nowhere near Burrow in value. This deal is a steal for the manager acquiring Burrow.
When looking through the trade finder, I struggled to find many, if any, deals where Burrow held his first-round ADP value. However, here’s the best one I could pick out.
Here, Burrow was a trade-up chip combined with Antonio Gibson to acquire Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is in a tier by himself atop superflex dynasty rankings, so Burrow must carry at least late-first round startup value to make this trade fair. I still think I would hold Mahomes here, as he’s a unique talent, but it’s a somewhat reasonable trade. Running backs are hard to find, so I understand the manager’s motivations who received Burrow and Gibson.
Overall, I don’t want to pay Burrow’s startup value, as there are other quarterbacks I’d prefer, along with a few young wide receivers and running backs. But in existing leagues, it seems like he’s very acquirable, likely due to his injury. I’d go out and get him now before those fantasy managers see him take the field in 2021.
Previous Entries: D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool, Harrison Bryant, Gabriel Davis, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Lynn Bowden
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
