Breakouts and Busts Heading into the Fantasy Playoffs
Following week four and again after week nine, I looked at players who have overperformed and underperformed ADP up to that point in the season. In this final installment, I will look at players’ performances as we head into the fantasy playoffs. With the NFL’s addition of a 17th game this season, each league has adopted different settings, so some leagues will have their playoffs starting in week 14 while others see their playoffs begin in week 15. Either way, here we are.
I referenced DLF’s startup ADP from August just before the NFL season began and compared it to where players rank at their respective positions through week 13. Players who have missed significant time due to injury have been omitted. In some instances, I’ll be looking at players on a per-game basis as opposed to season totals, and I’ll explicitly reference it when that is the case. Let’s take a look!
Quarterback
Breakouts
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI (difference in ADP and current position rank:+10)
Hurts was likely one of the most common breakout predictions of this entire season. In the last few seasons, we’ve seen a later-drafted quarterback “pop,” and Hurts was a name on many people’s lips. Being drafted 14th at the position and now sitting at QB4 in points scored, it seems like he was the right bet. I’m still uncertain what his dynasty value looks like long-term, as his real-life play has some holes, but as far as fantasy football in 2021? I’d be happy to ride him through the fantasy playoffs as long as he’s healthy.
Carson Wentz, QB IND (+15)
Wentz has had some fantasy success in the not-so-distant past, but injuries and questionable play led fantasy owners to be wary heading into 2021. Wentz was selected outside of QB2 territory, on average being chosen as the 27th signal-caller off the board. Wentz has rewarded fantasy GMs with a QB1 performance thus far, sitting at 12th in points scored, although he is the only quarterback in the top-18 with 13 games played. We’ve seen Wentz put up top-12 seasons before, and as long as he’s healthy, we might see a bit of a rebirth in Indianapolis over the next few seasons.
Honorable Mention
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR (+13), Kirk Cousins, QB MIN (+14)
Busts
Dak Prescott, QB DAL (-5)
Prescott was being selected as QB5 in drafts. However, being a few months removed from a significant lower-leg injury, there were some reasons for concern. Not that he’s been a total bust, but he’s definitely underperformed compared to people’s lofty expectations coming into the season. Although still a QB1, as the current QB10, he just hasn’t been as good as we saw a year ago when he was healthy. People were hoping for the 2020 version of Dak they saw, who averaged nearly 28 points per game, while the 2021 version has only been able to muster 20 points per game through week 13.
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC (-5)
Much like Prescott, Mahomes is still a QB1. But for the universally established draft season top QB overall, sitting at QB6 feels like a disappointment. The Chiefs’ offense as a whole has been a letdown this year. Fair or not, much of that is tied to Mahomes’ play. He’s only topped 300 passing yards twice in his last ten games and didn’t even throw for 200 twice as well. In five of his last six games, he has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns, and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown over his previous 66 attempts. Long-term, Mahomes is fine, but this season, the Chiefs and their QB aren’t the usual “lock” fantasy studs we’ve grown accustomed to.
Dishonorable Mention
None, most quarterback underperformers are tied to injuries thus far.
Running Back
Breakouts
Damien Harris, RB NE (+12)
I never, ever, ever, not ever never, never, draft Patriot running backs. However, Harris is making me rethink my stance. Drafted as a fringe RB3, being selected 32nd overall at the position, Harris has outperformed his ADP. He’s currently the PPR RB20. Who knows what this backfield looks like a year from now, and I’m not ready to trust the Pats backfield just yet for dynasty, but Harris is a more-than-capable RB to close out the fantasy playoffs. He might be a trade-high candidate in the fantasy off-season if he closes strong.
Joe Mixon, RB CIN (+13)
Year in and year out, Mixon has tons of fans in fantasy. Most years, he hasn’t lived up to the expectations. However, with the departure of Gio Bernard, there was simply nobody who commanded any touches in this offense that would hurt Mixon’s volume. Until this year, Mixon’s ADP has steadily risen since he entered the league in 2017 and saw an all-time high of 14th overall last year. Mixon’s ADP fell to 30th overall and 16th at the position after another letdown, but he has rewarded his truthers as the RB3 through 13 weeks.
Honorable Mention
Tony Pollard, RB DAL (+12), Elijah Mitchell, RB SF (+38)
Busts
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC (-21)
CEH has only played seven games, so technically, I shouldn’t include him here, but even on a point per game basis, he’s been a letdown. Edwards-Helaire was drafted as a low-end RB1, the 12th back off the board. He’s averaged 11.2 PPR points per game this season, only good enough for 33rd at the position. Low-end RB3 isn’t what owners had in mind during draft season.
Nyheim Hines, RB IND (-6)
Ok, maybe you weren’t expecting too much here, but a year removed from a top-15 PPR finish, Hines could have been in line for another strong performance. His ADP didn’t follow the 2020 performance, as he was drafted as RB40 this year. I wasn’t expecting much from him, but I assumed he would grossly outperform that ADP. Largely a victim of Jonathan Taylor‘s monster season, Hines has taken a backseat on all downs and isn’t likely to be fantasy-relevant as long as Taylor is healthy.
Dishonorable Mention
Zack Moss, RB BUF (-5)
Wide Receiver
Breakouts
Hunter Renfrow, WR LVR (+77)
I liked Renfrow as an end of the roster, bye-week fill-in, stash play, but I certainly never expected him to be a plug-and-play each week starter for me. Renfrow was WR96 in drafts and today sits as the current WR19. For multiple reasons, Renfrow has been a beneficiary of vacated targets as the Raiders’ receiving corps has fallen apart throughout the season. There’s no reason to expect Renfrow to slow down for the remainder of this season, and going forward he might be a steady fantasy performer for years.
Kendrick Bourne, WR NE (undrafted, currently WR26)
I’ve loved Bourne since he was a UDFA rookie with the 49ers coming out of Eastern Washington. It took long enough, but he’s in line for career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. We’ve seen the Patriots turn little-thought-of role players into steady fantasy producers, and Bourne seems to be the next man up. Will he ever be a top-20 player? Probably not, but you could do worse with Bourne in your flex each week.
Honorable Mention
Van Jefferson, WR LAR (+58), Diontae Johnson, WR PIT (+16), Darnell Mooney, WR CHI (+24)
Busts
DK Metcalf, WR SEA (-17)
At one point, some people were thinking Metcalf was the dynasty WR1. During draft season, he was locked in at WR4 and is now the WR21 through 13 weeks. I know what you’re probably thinking: “Russell Wilson missed time, without his starting quarterback, Metcalf suffered.” If that is what you’re thinking, you’re wrong. In four games with Geno Smith under center, Metcalf recorded 19 receptions on 23 targets for 295 yards and five scores. In the eight games Metcalf played with Wilson, He recorded 33 receptions on 61 targets for 415 yards and three touchdowns. Until Metcalf gets on the same page as Wilson and this Seattle offense as a whole steps up, Metcalf is going to see a dip in his dynasty value.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT (-21)
After a 2020 rookie campaign where we saw Claypool score nine times with 109 targets, the hype train got a little carried away, and Claypool climbed in ADP all the way up to WR21- the highest of the Steelers’ wide receiver trio. However, through 13 weeks, even with the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Claypool is still only WR42, while teammate Diontae Johnson is WR7. I never loved Claypool as a prospect, and touchdowns are a flukey stat. Considering Johnson’s emergence and many questions surrounding the quarterback position in Pittsburgh, it’s hard to know what Claypool’s fantasy future looks like. Still, he’s certainly not usable for the rest of 2021.
Dishonorable Mention
DJ Moore, WR CAR (-6), Courtland Sutton, WR DEN (-9)
Tight End
Breakouts
Tyler Conklin, TE MIN (undrafted, currently TE15)
Many people projected Irv Smith as a breakout tight end option for 2020. Instead, Smith got injured early, and Conklin slid directly into his role, seemingly enjoying the season many had hoped for had Smith remained on the field. After being a fifth-round pick of the Vikings in 2018, Conklin has been around long enough to have a grasp of the system and might have some staying power a year from now.
Zach Ertz, TE ARI (+10)
Not a breakout in the traditional sense, but not much was expected of Ertz in 2021, despite his history and track record of fantasy success over the last near-decade. Rumors swirled about trades all off-season, his age, and the emergence of Dallas Goedert all combined forces to depress Ertz on draft day, where he was TE20. Through 12 games and two teams, Ertz has found himself as the TE10 on the year so far. Since joining the Cardinals, he’s been TE6, so there is still room for growth to close out 2021.
Honorable Mention:
CJ Uzomah, TE CIN (undrafted, now TE18), Hunter Henry, TE NE (+6)
Busts
Jonnu Smith, TE NE (-13)
When the Patriots brought in Jonnu Smith, I was ecstatic. Bill Belichick has had a fondness for Smith for some time and, given the team’s depth at receiver and success using two tight ends successfully in the past, I thought Jonnu was a lock for a top-12 finish at the position with a shot at a top-three finish. Boy, was I wrong. Smith has been vastly outperformed by fellow free-agent tight end signee Hunter Henry and is sixth on the team in receptions. Currently TE28, Smith hasn’t been viable even in two-TE leagues, quite a departure from the lofty hopes some had for him only four months ago.
Anthony Firkser, TE TEN (-25) 24 49
Not that anyone thought the key to fantasy success in 2021 was going to be Anthony Firkser, he was being drafted as TE24. Given Tennessee’s recent history of utilizing tight ends, there was room for potential and reason to hope to extract some fantasy production from the position. Whelp, through 13 weeks, Firkser has been outplayed by fellow Titan TEs MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swaim. Surprisingly, even if you combined all three of their fantasy points, they would still only be the TE10 overall. Not great.
Dishonorable Mention
Noah Fant, TE DEN (-9)
This is always a fun exercise as the season progresses. Although “breakouts and busts” might be a little hyperbolic, it is helpful to identify players who are under- and over-performing in-season to help you find players who might be buy-low or sell-high options. Obviously, as dynasty owners, we are always playing the long game, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t impacted by the week-to-week in-season swings that are common in this crazy game we play. Good luck heading into the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully, you’re still alive and in line to make a run at a title. If not, hey, it’s dynasty, and it’s time to start getting ready for your 2022 rookie drafts!
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Rome Odunze and Jonathon Brooks - December 14, 2024
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: AJ Barner and Theo Johnson - December 7, 2024
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Cade Stover and Ja’Tavion Sanders - November 30, 2024
