Dynasty Rookie Report Card: AJ Barner and Theo Johnson
Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, I’ll cover two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and will generally write about the most prominent performers from that particular week. I’ll discuss how well he’s lived up to expectations at the NFL level and then grade the player in three categories: performance to date, rookie season potential, and long-term upside.
AJ Barner, TE SEA
Week 13 stats: two receptions on two targets for 14 yards and one touchdown.
In week 13, Barner scored the second touchdown of his rookie season in a matchup against the New York Jets. It was the only receiving touchdown for the now first-place team in a crucial road win. It was Barner’s tenth straight game with a reception.
Barner was a high school linebacker and tight end who was named the Northeast Ohio Division III Defensive Player of the Year, and originally committed to Ohio. Eventually, Barner wound up enrolling at Indiana and playing tight end. He was a team captain as a junior in 2022, finishing the season third on the team in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, and second for touchdowns. Despite being a team captain, Barner entered the transfer portal and elected to enroll at the University of Michigan, where he was part of their 2023 National Championship team as a senior, finishing the season fifth in receptions and yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns.
Entering the 2024 NFL draft, Barner was projected to be a fourth or fifth-round pick, which proved to be accurate as he was selected with the 21st pick of the fourth round by Seattle. According to nfl.com’s Lance Zierlein scouting report, Barner was anticipated to be a good potential NFL tight end, but that wouldn’t necessarily translate to fantasy success, saying: “[An] In-line tight end who continues improving as a run blocker but is unlikely to offer much as a pass catcher. Barner’s role might be a little limited as a blocking Y tight end with below-average pass-catching traits, but he should earn playing time in the future“. In a small 396-snap sample size, Barner seems to already be doing more in the passing game than was expected of him coming onto the league, and dynasty GMs are starting to take notice.
After initially going undrafted in all of DLF’s off-season rookie mock drafts and not appearing in the initial start-up mocks either, Barner finally started appearing in October’s ADP data as TE29. He fell to TE29 in November, but at least he is on the dynasty radar now.
Performance to Date: C-
Among rookies, Barner is currently 23rd in points scored, ahead of many players who were drafted well ahead of him. Not too bad for someone who was going undrafted entering the season. He’s TE37, so he isn’t going to get into your lineup often, but in two tight end leagues, he has been a usable TE2 if you’re in a pinch.
Rookie Season Potential: C
Barner leads all Seattle tight ends in snaps, largely due to Noah Fant missing time with injury. He’s done well enough while on the field alongside Fant, that we can anticipate that he’ll continue to be involved down the stretch. In the last three games they’ve played together, Fant has amassed a 10-113 stat line while Barner has gone 5-53-1, so Barner has surprisingly scored more fantasy points. He should be a low-end TE2 for the next month of the season.
Long-Term Upside: B
I like what we’ve seen from Barner so far. I’m not sure if he’ll ever be a steady high-end option at the position, but he should keep a high enough floor to at least make him a fantasy asset worth a roster spot for the foreseeable future. If the Seahawks have seen enough from Barner as a rookie, he might be their long-term option. Fant’s contract has an out after this season, and his deal expires after 2025. Barner is five years younger than Fant, and Barner’s entire contract through 2027 will only cost Seattle $4.7 million. If they cut Fant after this year, they’ll save $5 million, those savings would pay for Barner’s entire deal. We could be looking at a steady 40-catch, 400-yard, four-touchdown guy flirting with the middle-of-the-pack TE2 numbers.
Theo Johnson, TE NYG
Week 13 stats: five receptions on five targets for 54 yards.
Prior to exiting the Giants’ week 13 contest with a foot injury, Johnson was on pace for his best game of the season, already amassing his career high in yardage and tying his career high in receptions. Unfortunately, his day and season came to an end with a Lisfranc injury that Johnson has already had surgery to repair.
Coming out of high school in Windsor, Ontario, Canada, Johnson was a four-star recruit who elected to enroll at Penn State, despite offers from other top programs such as Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State. In four seasons as a Nittany Lion, Johnson recorded 77 receptions for 938 yards and 12 touchdowns, including a team-leading seven scores as a fourth-year junior.
At the NFL combine, Johnson was the second-fastest tight end, running a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. He also had the second-best vertical jump (39.5″), second-best broad jump (10’5″), fifth-best three-cone (7.15), and the best 20-yard shuttle (4.19). Those performances led to Johnson being drafted with the seventh pick of the fourth round, finding a home with a New York Giants team who just lost Darren Waller. His rookie ADP was a bit of a roller coaster, starting as rookie TE5 and 56th overall in February’s rookie mocks but finishing as TE4 and 45th overall by the time rookie mock draft season concluded in May. In start-up drafts, however, Johnson recently hit his peak as the 154th overall pick as TE20.
Performance to Date: C+
Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr have gotten most of the rookie attention on the Giants, but Johnson certainly warrants some attention. He is fourth on the team in receptions and receiving yards, and third in touchdowns. In fantasy circles, he is TE28, rookie 19, and rookie TE2- only trailing Brock Bowers. Maybe a C+ is generous for a high-end TE3, but he’s been under the radar all year.
Rookie Season Potential: F
Johnson sustained a season-ending foot injury in week 13. With a guaranteed zero-point finish on the season, he gets an F. On the plus side, he can be moved to your IR slot until the off-season, so at least he isn’t eating up a roster spot.
Long-Term Upside: B
If the Giants can straighten out their quarterback situation, Johnson is dripping with upside. I can imagine a world where he could be a steady fringe TE1/TE2 year in and year out. In recent years, we’ve seen multiple Penn State tight ends succeed in the NFL, and Johnson looks to be the next one.
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
