Dynasty Breakouts and Busts Through the Halfway Point
Following week four, we looked at the bust and breakouts with a quarter of the season complete. Now, with nine weeks in the books, it is time to examine some of the season’s more notable over- and under-performers. For my methodology, I referenced DLF’s start-up ADP from August just before the NFL season kicked off and compared it to where players rank at their respective positions at this point in the year. I omitted significantly injured players for obvious reasons and will reference redraft ADP as well since we all know dynasty ADP can be unreasonably ageist sometimes.
So, without further ado, let’s see who is carrying and sinking fantasy teams over the first half of the NFL season.
Quarterback
Breakouts
Tom Brady, QB TB (difference in ADP and current position rank:+19)
Have we reached the point where Brady is considered a breakout? As mentioned above, obviously, his age (44) is what depressed his ADP in dynasty leagues. He was the 20th quarterback drafted in dynasty start-ups, but even in redraft, he was only QB9 in drafts. Brady finished last year as QB8 during his first season in Tampa Bay and hasn’t missed a beat, averaging nearly 26 fantasy points per game during his encore performance, the tops among QBs. There is no reason to think he can’t maintain this level of production for the rest of this season, and maybe the next year or two as well.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB DEN (+22)
Bridgewater was a low-end QB2 for teams heading into draft season, with an ADP of 37th at the position. While nobody expected him to be a world-beating league-winner, Bridgewater has been a model QB2 for fantasy and is currently QB15 overall. Only nine more points would actually place him in the QB1 tier through nine weeks. With the return of Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to think Bridgewater can’t maintain and finish the year locked in as a QB2. He’s been able to keep Drew Lock at bay, but can he fend off another veteran or rookie a year from now? He might be a prime “sell while you still can” candidate.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI (+11), Matthew Stafford, QB LAR (+14), Carson Wentz, QB IND (+17)
Busts
Justin Fields, QB CHI (-18)
Quite the opposite of Brady above, rookie signal-callers tend to have their ADP grossly inflated. Personally, Fields was the rookie quarterback who I liked the least among the first-round picks. I thought there were too many red flags with the coaching, front office, and supporting cast, and he’s only nine games into his career, but I feel justified thus far. Fields is currently QB29 after seeing his dynasty ADP climb up to 11 at the position. As long as the current offensive line, receiving corps, coaching staff, and front office remain in place, I don’t see a path to success for the Ohio State product. Wait for another decent game and sell before it’s too late.
Kyler Murray, QB ARI (-5)
Murray is currently QB8 and was the third quarterback selected in drafts. Yes, eighth isn’t a true “bust,” but given the crazy expectations after he averaged over 30 fantasy points per game after the first nine weeks last year, he simply isn’t meeting the expectations of many fantasy owners at this point. He is still an elite dynasty asset, but he might not carry teams as expected into the fantasy playoffs with a bum ankle.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC (-5), Aaron Rodgers, QB GB (-8)
Running Back
Breakouts
James Conner, RB ARI (+33)
Don’t look now, but somehow Conner is leading the NFL in touchdowns through nine weeks. Touchdowns can be a flukey stat, but with Chase Edmonds now injured, Conner is likely to get even more touches. An afterthought in drafts where he was the 44th running back off the board, Conner is carrying teams who took the late gamble as he is thus far an RB1. You might as well ride him into the fantasy playoffs, as he isn’t garnering much in return, according to the DLF trade finder. Enjoy the production while you can.
Leonard Fournette, RB TB (+22)
Guess who has only nine fewer receptions than Mike Evans, the third-most on the team, with the fourth-most targets, with 63% of the team’s non-QB carries? Playoff Lenny has carried through into the regular season and has solidified himself as the Bucs top option out of the backfield. Falling all the way down to RB35 in drafts, Fournette has carried teams and is the current RB13, even without a 100-yard game. He could be a little more consistent week-to-week, but aside from that, there are few criticisms to lay at Fournette’s feet for fantasy thus far.
Honorable Mentions:
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR (+16), Melvin Gordon, RB DEN (+24), Damien Harris, RB NE (+16)
Busts
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS (-13)
I’m a huge Gibson fan, so this pains me. This entire Washington organization is in shambles. I thought the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick would make Washington the cream of the crop in a week NFC East, but once he went down, the entire team seems to have followed him into the garbage disposal. Gibson is also dealing with a lingering injury that will be there until the season ends, and at some point, you’ve gotta think Washington will just shut him down. Not great for a player I thought had top-three at his position in his likely range of outcomes. Let him keep falling in the eyes of fantasy owners and make him a buy-low priority in the off-season, as I still think the potential is through the roof- just not this year.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN (-15)
The Vikings’ Cook was the third running back taken in drafts this year – in some leagues as high as the first player overall. While he hasn’t been terrible, he’s currently RB26. Even factoring in missed time, Cook is still only 18th on a points-per-game basis. He has only topped 15 fantasy points once this year and has failed to crack double-digits twice. Including games missed to injury, Cook has only been startable in four of eight games this season, not what people were hoping for with that early draft capital.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Josh Jacobs, RB LV (-6), Javonte Williams, RB DEN (-6)
Wide Receiver
Breakouts
Marquise Brown, WR BAL (+47)
Talk about a shocker. I stopped everything I was doing and double and triple-checked what I was seeing. The Ravens’ Marquise Brown is the PPR WR6 through nine weeks. He’s roughly on pace for a 95-reception, 1400-yard, 12-touchdown season. That’s about 300 fantasy points and would have made him the WR4 last season. The Ravens are passing more than expected, and Brown has been the biggest winner, not Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman. There’s no reason to think he can’t keep this up for the remainder of the season as long as he can stay healthy, but I’d be looking to move him in the off-season if someone wants to pay up for him.
Michael Pittman, WR IND (+52)
Whoa. Much like Brown above, this was a big surprise to me. I never was a big Pittman guy, but who cares what I think, Pittman is THE guy in this Colts passing attack, which suddenly looks pretty good, averaging 31.5 points per game over their last six contests. Obviously, I’m not comparing Pittman talent-wise to the Davante Adams, Tyreek Hills, and Stefon Diggs of the world, but the top option in a team’s passing game when that team is averaging over 30 points per game is a winning fantasy strategy. Get yourself some Pittman if you can.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandin Cooks (+33), Tim Patrick, WR DEN (+68), Cole Beasley, WR BUF (+40)
Busts
AJ Brown, WR TEN (-25)
As shocked as I was to see Marquise Brown and Pittman at the six and seven positions, I was equally floored to see AJ Brown all the way down at 28th with eight games played. Considering Brown is some people’s WR1 overall in dynasty, seeing him slumming it with the Tim Patricks and Hunter Renfrows of the fantasy world is pretty disappointing. In four of Brown’s eight games, he failed to record even five fantasy points. That’s terrible. Brown has 65 targets this season, good for the 24th most in the NFL, and he’s on pace to have more targets than last year when he finished as the WR12; he’s just not doing much with his targets.
Allen Robinson, WR CHI (-39)
See Fields, Justin, above. Unfortunately, Fields has been terrible, and he’s dragging Robinson down with him. Despite playing with awful and mediocre quarterbacks his entire career, Robinson has shown the ability to overcome their shortcomings in flashes. Well, not anymore. People expected Robinson to thrive as the rookie’s top target, and his dynasty ADP rose to WR14 – in redraft, he was WR11. The worst part is that he is still second on the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but this offense is so putrid, it doesn’t even matter, and Robinson is currently WR53 – a WR5 not even usable in your flex during bye weeks.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Chase Claypool, WR PIT (-23), Robby Anderson, WR CAR (-28)
Tight End
Breakouts
Mike Gesicki, TE MIA (+7)
Like most tight ends, Gesicki struggled as a rookie and has taken time to develop at the NFL level. Finally, everything seems to have clicked for the fourth-year player out of Penn State, as he currently sits as the TE3 after being drafted tenth in Dynasty leagues. On pace for an 83-1,000-4 stat line, this is what dynasty prognosticators have been waiting for since Gesicki broke into the league.
David Njoku, TE CLE (+23)
There aren’t many 25-year-olds with five years of NFL experience under their belts. On pace for career highs in both yards and touchdowns, Njoku has shown flashes of the potential breakout stud we caught a glimpse of in 2018 when he finished as TE9 in his second NFL season. The Browns brought him back for one season, and he’s likely to move on next year as the Browns have both Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant at the position as well. In a league starved for dynamic, top-end, tight end talent, Njoku could be one of next season’s breakout stars at the position after being the 41st tight end taken in dynasty drafts this year.
Honorable Mention:
Tyler Conklin, TE MIN (undrafted, now TE16)
Busts
Evan Engram, TE NYG (-11)
Engram’s upside still lures in fantasy owners after an amazing rookie campaign back in 2017 when he finished as the TE5. His ADP hasn’t really faltered as he was still TE12 in dynasty drafts heading into the season. Sitting as the current TE23, he’s the lowest of low-end TE2s, with little room for upside as long as he’s tied to a lackluster offense and a quarterback who isn’t good enough to produce multiple fantasy-relevant receivers.
Adam Trautman, TE NO (-33)
As the 2021 season kick-off neared, Trautman was seeing his hype train pull out of the station, and his ADP in dynasty climbed to 14th. Despite being fourth on the team with 26 targets and 15 receptions in eight games, all of the tight end touchdowns (3) have gone to Juwan Johnson. The lack of targets, receptions, and most importantly, touchdowns have Trautman currently sitting at TE47 on the year, behind such stellar talents as Durham Smythe, Foster Moreau, Jordan Akins, and the previously mentioned Juwan Johnson. The Saints just aren’t integrating the tight end into the offense at this point in time. Barring any significant unforeseen changes in the future, it looks like that will continue, further sinking any value Trautman might have had left.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Jonnu Smith, TE NE (-12)
This is always a fun exercise. Hopefully, you enjoyed it, and more importantly, I hope you found some of the information to be actionable in your leagues. I’ll be back with a final look at breakouts and busts when we head into the fantasy playoffs. Good luck!
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
