2025 Rookie Bust Mock Draft (Pre-Draft Edition)
The rookie bust mock drafts are one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year, so why not make them even weirder again this off-season!?! These unique drafts are usually designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. Today, we’re going to start a series looking at this 2025 rookie class prior to the NFL Draft. One player was drafted at a time based on their risk of being a bust due to their likely draft capital or ADP in an upcoming dynasty rookie draft. The top selection was the player in the top 36 who could carry the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their future draft capital or ADP. The last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk, so this is not a ranking list at all. Players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:
Ashton Jeanty
Omarion Hampton
Tetairoa McMillan
Quinshon Judkins
TreVeyon Henderson
Tyler Warren
Luther Burden
Colston Loveland
Travis Hunter
Kaleb Johnson
Matthew Golden
Emeka Egbuka
Tre Harris
Jayden Higgins
Elic Ayomanor
Cam Ward
Dylan Sampson
Cam Skattebo
Jaylin Noel
Jalen Royals
Isaiah Bond
Jack Bech
Shedeur Sanders
Devin Neal
Mason Taylor
Bhayshul Tuten
Harold Fannin
RJ Harvey
Savion Williams
Ollie Gordon
DJ Giddens
Jaxson Dart
Kyle Williams
Xavier Restrepo
Jalen Milroe
Tez Johnson
Let’s get to it with round one, considered the riskiest based on the draft capital you may need to use to acquire them. The comments given are from those who made the selection aren’t necessarily my own opinion. However, there weren’t too many picks I argued with, so that’s notable.
1.01 = Travis Hunter, CB/WR Colorado
Thoughts shared: “I love his talent and ability. I think he could be an All-Pro at receiver OR cornerback. The problem is cornerback is more of a premium position in the NFL and while many view him as a receiver who will play some snaps at corner, it’s also possible a team takes him to be a corner who plays some snaps at receiver. You’ll have to take the plunge high in your rookie draft and there’s some serious risk here if he goes to the wrong place.”
1.02 = Jalen Milroe, QB Alabama
Thoughts shared: “Milroe has the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft – maybe even of any player in this class, especially for fantasy. But his inconsistency as a passer is incredibly troubling. He has accuracy and mechanical issues that he’ll need coaching on. His athletic traits are elite, but if he can’t develop as a passer, Milroe has a chance to Trey Lance his way out of the NFL within a few years.”
1.03 = Luther Burden, WR Missouri
Thoughts shared: “Burden’s ceiling is immense but he produced in such a specific manner there will always be question marks about how that transitions to the next level. His production could be a result of elite talent. It could also be as a result of a manufactured role. Question marks about his ability to play outside and run a full route tree add to the mystery.”
1.04 = Tez Johnson, WR Oregon
Thoughts shared: “It’s incredibly easy to see the path to busting for someone of Tez’ size. The blueprint for the best-case scenario is looking at Tank Dell’s career and ignoring the two huge injuries. To succeed, he’ll have to be schemed up incredibly well and avoid taking huge amounts of contact. For a player at 154 lbs who doesn’t have great long speed, that feels unlikely.”
1.05 = Matthew Golden, WR Texas
Thoughts shared: “After experiencing a GME-level price spike from mid-round prospect to potential top-15 pick over the past few months, Golden is now likely to go in the first round of both the NFL draft and your rookie draft. He’s a 4.29-speedster with great separation skills, but his production profile is awful and his size and competitive toughness carry red flags that his speed might not mask. My comps were Henry Ruggs and Chris Olave and that feels like the range of (on-the-field) outcomes for the former Longhorn – major bust candidate with WR2 upside.”
1.06 = Xavier Restrepo, WR Miami
Thoughts shared: “Speed kills in the NFL. And sadly Restrepo just doesn’t have it. The slow 40 isn’t the end all and be all but it’s pretty concerning for a slot only receiver who doesn’t add much route running juice or willing in the run game. All of that combined could keep him off the field and it’s hard to score fantasy points sitting on the sideline.”
1.07 = Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado
Thoughts shared: “Sanders has many potential red flags in his profile – the off-field circus his father Deion brings to the table, playing against a lower level of competition and playing with arguably the best player in college football (Hunter). His lack of dual threat upside hurts for fantasy, but it adds a lot of pressure for him to be a talented passer to maintain a starting role in the NFL at the same time. The rumors of a draft day slide are already beginning, bringing plenty of risk in the area where you have to take him in rookie drafts.”
1.08 = Harold Fannin, TE Bowling Green
Thoughts shared: “The production profile is impossible to argue with. The movement ability and athletic profile is. Fannin was the most productive TE in the country in 2024, but is undersized with incredibly stiff hips. He could be the TE1 in this class, but also could be a roster clogger within a year.”
1.09 = Isaiah Bond, WR Texas
Thoughts shared: “He certainly talks a big game, but the fact is he hasn’t been able to back it up on the field or on the workout circuit quite yet. Add in what looks to be some serious legal trouble and you have a pick with some major volatility.”
1.10 = Kaleb Johnson, RB Iowa
Thoughts shared: “Needs to land on a primarily outside zone blocking scheme team or he is toast.”
1.11 = Savion Williams, WR TCU
Thoughts shared: “Williams is fun with the ball in his hands. However, I’m not 100% sure he actually has a position in the NFL or an ability to create separation.”
1.12 = Ollie Gordon, RB Oklahoma State
Thoughts shared: “I get it. He had a bad season and disappointed all of us. Much of that is being blamed on him being on an awful offense and teams gearing up to stop him. However, is the talent level at the NFL going to get worse and make things easier for him? He has high upside, but I still see a lot of risk here.”
…and now we start round two. With the low-hanging fruit off the board, these players are a little safer in terms of risk vs. reward, but not sure things by any stretch of the imagination.
2.01 = Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss
Thoughts shared: “I actually like Dart with the right coaching / system, however, coming from the Ole Miss offense with plenty of one-read and half-field play designs is a major risk transitioning to the big time. Dart is solid but doesn’t do anything great. First round draft capital could push him towards the top half of round one in rookie drafts – a risky price for a player who could easily have been the QB6-7 last year.”
2.02 = Bhayshul Tuten, RB Virginia Tech
Thoughts shared: “Tuten’s combine rocketed him up draft boards, but his skill set is limited despite the blazing speed. For a one-cut back who relies on physical tools, the path to busting is clear if he doesn’t find himself in the right scheme.”
2.03 = Dylan Sampson, RB Tennessee
Thoughts shared: “Sampson flashes. But he also ran in an offense that saw some unique box counts and some highway-wide rushing lanes. The lack of vision could be a huge issue at the next level.”
2.04 = Tyler Warren, TE Penn State
Thoughts shared: “Despite clearly having a high potential ceiling in fantasy given his versatility, there are still some potential concerns. His route running still needs work (often using his size to win rather than nuance), a fifth year breakout raises questions, and while his versatility is a strength, he doesn’t dominate in any one role, so he’s likely more dependent on a solid landing spot and an offense that schemes him correctly. With his expected high draft capital, he will likely be a premium pick in rookie drafts, therefore increasing his bust potential given the high expectations already.”
2.05 = Cam Skattebo, RB Arizona State
Thoughts shared: “I suspect he’ll be over drafted in rookie drafts this year because of name recognition. Everyone remembers his thrilling Playoff game, but he’s a very one-dimensional running back. He did a great job running over college defenders in the PAC-12 and Big-12, but professional defenders are a different animal.”
2.06 = Devin Neal, RB Kansas
Thoughts shared: “Neal is often the sixth RB off the board, right after the “really good” tier ends with Kaleb Johnson. While that’s ‘fine’ for a good-sized back with patience, instincts, and contact balance, it means drafting him over several other backs with actual standout traits (Neal has none) and better odds to break out as full-time fantasy starters. Neal is more like Zach Charbonnet with far less draft capital – a good pro back, but fantasy relevance could be very sparse.”
2.07 = Tre Harris, WR Ole Miss
Thoughts shared: “The benefactor of an offensive scheme that puts up big numbers and had a QB who locked onto him in all situations. Will he find an NFL QB willing to do the same when separation issues arise?”
2.08 = Elic Ayomanor, WR Stanford
Thoughts shared: “Outside wide receiver, with low career reception percentage (58.3%) and limited career slot usage (13.7%), making him highly volatile and more situation-dependent than most. Whilst there are flashes of talent, the range of outcomes is huge for this archetype – one of the lowest floors of incoming rookie wide receivers.”
2.09 = RJ Harvey, RB UCF
Thoughts shared: “Love the potential ceiling Harvey has with his athleticism and big play ability, but there may be question marks over if he’s viewed as a potential workhorse running back in the NFL rather than just a change of pace option. Really needs to land in an outside zone run scheme to maximize his skillset and given he’s an older running back, he ideally needs to make a positive impression early in his career.”
2.10 = Cam Ward, QB Miami
Thoughts shared: “This is about the area we need to put Ward. There’s no doubting his talent, but quarterbacks bust. They just do. Tennessee is the likely landing spot and they really haven’t had anything resembling a franchise quarterback since Steve McNair and also aren’t exactly bursting with talent. As we get to the end of round two here, these players are safer than most and Ward certainly is. However, the draft capital you’ll have to use (a top pick in a Superflex draft and a late first or early second in a conventional draft) bakes in high risk with your rookie pick, regardless.”
2.11 = Jalen Royals, WR Utah State
Thoughts shared: “I really like Jalen Royals’ game, but we have seen smaller school guys not pan out. He is great at yards after the catch, but we saw similar players like Malachi Corley struggle in their rookie year and that gives me pause. Royals had two games against power five teams in the last two years, and he was held under 50 yards in both games.”
2.12 = Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State
Thoughts shared: “Listen. Jeanty is a generational prospect, and if I had to bet my car on his career arc, I’d bet on RB1 status for several years. Still, there are some flags to acknowledge, and at his exorbitant draft price, he has to be great to not be a bust. He’s under 5-foot-9 and weighs 211 pounds, uniquely small for a top-15 selection at RB — like Barry-Sanders-and-that’s-it unique. And he’s going to be the highest-drafted Mountain West Conference back ever — likely smoking Rashaad Penny (27th overall) and Doug Martin (31st) — so college competition questions have merit. He needs to be an outlier to meet expectations … and he probably will be. But there are risks, and the not-a-bust bar is incredibly high.”
…and that brings us to round three. If you’re risk averse and want more of a sure thing in your dynasty draft, this could just be the well to dip into.
3.01 = Jayden Higgins, WR Iowa State
Thoughts shared: “Will his inconsistent early separation issues carry over to the pros if he doesn’t land with a play caller willing to scheme him open or a quarterback willing to throw him open? If he gets used like Keon Coleman was last season he could be in trouble.”
3.02 = Kyle Williams, WR Washington State
Thoughts shared: “Outside wide receiver with great speed as a deep-threat but poor hands overall, sounds like a player who will frustrate and a fair rate of busting due to his role in the offense, combined with questionable route running.”
3.03 = DJ Giddens, RB Kansas State
Thoughts shared: “A well built RB, but not a power back. A capable pass catcher, but not a pass catching weapon (20 receptions but 5 drops in 2024). Overall, a dependable athletic RB but lacks that ‘wow’ factor and may need to fall into the ideal situation for him to hit his ceiling.”
3.04 = Emeka Egbuka, WR Ohio State
Thoughts shared: “Seems relatively safe to me. While not the high profile, ridiculous-ceiling receiver we’re used to seeing from the Buckeyes, Egbuka has a high floor. When you figure he may be available at the end of round one, that seems like a pretty good bargain to me.”
3.05 = Quinshon Judkins, RB Ohio State
Thoughts shared: “Judkins is pretty safe floor, with a more limited ceiling. He’s the kind of back who’s good at everything, without a truly elite trait. Still, safe picks are good ones.”
3.06 = Tetairoa McMillan, WR Arizona
Thoughts shared: “Solid production profile and separation skills. Maybe limited athlete but all in all a pretty safe and reliable pick.”
3.07 = TreVeyon Henderson, RB Ohio State
Thoughts shared: “Injury history could be a risk but the profile is definitely there for him to have huge upside in the NFL.”
3.08 = Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa State
Thoughts shared: “He’s undersized with a narrow wingspan and tiny hands but has the speed, burst, quickness, strength, and toughness to paint over those concerns. The modern NFL is friendlier to smaller slot-heavy receivers that it used to be, and Noel should be an early PPR contributor in that sort of role.”
3.09 = Jack Bech, TE TCU
Thoughts shared: “Surprised to see him here as a ‘safe’ option. Film people love him, but his analytical profile is abysmal. Some people want him to be this year’s Puka, but I think he’s this year’s Ja’Lynn Polk. He’ll probably get Day 2 draft capital, maybe even Round 2, and his ADP is probably cheap enough that he’s fine to take a shot on, but to me he’s a low-floor, low-ceiling player.”
3.10 = Mason Taylor, TE LSU
Thoughts shared: “A well rounded TE with versatility and solid hands. He has continued to rise up draft boards throughout the offseason. May need a bit more time to continue to improve as a ‘traditional’ in-line TE but a relatively safe floor TE prospect.”
3.11 = Colston Loveland, TE Michigan
Thoughts shared: “Exciting junior tight end, with solid and early production in college. Excellent pass catcher, which raises his floor and ceiling for fantasy. Work to be done as a blocker but all the tools to be an offensive weapon in the pro game. Projected first round draft capital solidifies him as a low-risk prospect.”
3.12 = Omarion Hampton, RB North Carolina
Thoughts shared: “Lacks creativity and problem solving when plays break down. There are more than a handful of plays where you can see him run straight into the back of his blockers. One-speed long strider that doesn’t always show the ability to vary his foot frequency to get defenders off balance. Still, those are things that can be improved upon and Hampton was the last pick on the board for a reason – he’s pretty good and his skills translate pretty seamlessly to the next level.”
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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