2024 Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC East

Tim Riordan Posted On June 10, 2024

With the Draft in the books, we’re covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!

AFC East Outlook

Buffalo Bills

Data courtesy of 4for4 Team Depth Charts.

Has the Bills championship window closed? The answer to that question is likely no. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills will always be in the conversation, but this is a different looking team than we’ve seen in recent years. In a tough salary cap spot, the Bills had to let several key players walk this off-season, including Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs (via trade). Allen’s weapons look much different (and much younger) this season, so we’ll have to see how this team comes together in training camp.

Allen finished as the QB1 in fantasy football for the third time in his career. Over the last four seasons, he’s finished first, first, second and first in the end-of-season quarterback rankings, in that order. He’s an absolute stud and the number one quarterback in dynasty ADP. Despite that history, there are some concerns for him this season. Diggs and Davis are gone and they’ve been replaced by Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, along with some underwhelming veteran journeymen. There are also holes in the offensive line and the constant threat of an injury looming over his head. It’s possible, with all of these changes, that you can buy low on Josh Allen in dynasty right now.

At running back, James Cook is returning after his best season as a pro. After Joe Brady joined the team, the Bills committed to the run more and Cook had a few of the best fantasy games of his career. However, he fell off in the final few games of the season and could’ve been a league-loser in the fantasy playoffs. Ray Davis is a really interesting addition to this offense, he has enough talent to considerably cut into Cooks’ production.

Dalton Kincaid’s rookie season was overshadowed by Sam LaPorta’s, but he still put together a top 12 tight end season. He should be on the cusp of a sophomore breakout in this offense. With Davis and Diggs gone and replaced by a rookie and a journeyman, Kincaid could become Josh Allen’s favorite target. Kincaid had his best games when Dawson Knox was hurt, but this year he should be the primary tight end on the field.

Miami Dolphins

Data courtesy of 4for4 Team Depth Charts.

The Dolphins lineup is loaded up with speed at almost every position. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright and Jonnu Smith are some of the fastest players to play their positions. Mike McDaniel has done a masterful job taking advantage of that speed and churning out fantasy football superstars left and right. Mostert and Achane were the RB4 and RB5 in fantasy points per game last season. Hill was WR2 while Waddle just missed out on being a top 20 wide receiver. This was a valuable fantasy football offense in 2023, and should continue to be so going forward.

With all of this speed on the field, Tua Tagovailoa has plenty of options to get the ball to. Coming off of his best season as a pro, Tua is cutting weight and hoping for a new contract with Miami. Whether or not that happens, he seems to be an underrated dynasty asset. He is 26 years-old on one of the best offenses in the league. He was the QB11 last season in fantasy points, but he’s ranked down at QB16 for dynasty.

Data Courtesy of DLF ADP History.

Achane is being valued as the RB8 for dynasty by DLF drafters, but it’s hard to predict what his role will be for the Dolphins this season. When everyone is healthy, he’ll be splitting time with Raheem Mostert, and the team added another talented running back in Jaylen Wright. Because of his age, Mostert is ranked as the RB46 for dynasty, and he’s a great value for a win-now team.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the best wide receiver duo in the league, and they’re ranked as such – WR10 and WR12 respectively. The Dolphins extended Waddle this off-season, and now Hill is hoping for an extension of his own. Waddle managers were likely looking forward to a day when Hill would retire, but he seems to love playing for Miami. At one point he said he wanted to retire at the end of this contract, but now he wants an extension. It’s annoying for Waddle managers, but he’s had plenty of success sharing the field with Hill the past two seasons.

New England Patriots

Data courtesy of 4for4 Team Depth Charts.

We go from one of the most talented fantasy football offenses to one of the least talented. The Patriots offense produced nothing for fantasy football this year, and they’re hoping to turn it around this year with a new quarterback under center – that position is a battle between Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett. Brissett seems to have the upper-hand in training camp, but we know at some point Maye will get an opportunity to play. Brissett is a desperation play in superflex dynasty leagues and has very little value. Maye, on the other hand, is loaded with upside, once he reaches his full potential. We aren’t sure when Maye will get a chance to start, but when he does, one has to hope that he’s broken some bad habits he had in college.

Rhamondre Stevenson suffered from injuries last year, splitting the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott. With Elliott gone, and a new run-heavy offensive system designed by Alex VanPelt, he could be a value in dynasty. He’s still only 26, and ranked at RB20 for dynasty. Antonio Gibson could play a passing-game role, and could take some targets away from Stevenson, but you shouldn’t expect him to be on the field too often.

The wide receiver room has been revamped with the additions of KJ Osborn and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Demario Douglas quietly had a nice rookie season for a sixth-rounder, so he’ll likely be in the slot for the Patriots this season. Osborn, Polk and Baker will battle it out with Kendrick Bourne in camp for the two available outside wide receiver roles. Polk is the most valuable for fantasy, but he’s being completely ignored in dynasty leagues and rookie drafts. Polk was an early second-round pick and could be Maye’s top receiver for years to come, but he’s only ranked as the WR60. Hunter Henry is a decent TE2 returning this season, but Austin Hooper could have a role as well.

New York Jets

Data courtesy of 4for4 Team Depth Charts.

Last year was a disaster for the Jets, but now Aaron Rodgers is healthy and the team is loaded with offensive talent to go along with their outstanding defense. Rodgers is an interesting player for dynasty fantasy football. He’s being valued as the 30th quarterback in dynasty, outside of QB2 range, but he could easily have a top 10, or even a top five fantasy season this year. He should only be on teams in win-now mode at 40 years-old, but he could be a league-winner for this season.

Breece Hall is an absolute stud and should be the first or second running back off the board in most dynasty drafts. At just 23 years-old and with his health problems in the rear-view mirror, he could have an even better season than he had last year. Hall’s handcuff is an interesting one, as the Jets used two draft picks on the position this year despite already having Israel Abanikanda on the roster. It seems that word out of OTAs and Minicamps have Braelon Allen surpassing Abanikanda on the depth chart.

Garrett Wilson will finally get to be paired up with a decent quarterback, and could be on track to have his best season as a pro in 2025. Mike Williams is a good number two for this team, and Malachi Corley will be a weapon for Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers to design plays for. One pass-catcher who’s being overlooked is Tyler Conklin. He’s ranked the TE35 in dynasty and should be going much higher than that. He had a decent season last year with Zach Wilson and company, and Aaron Rodgers likes spreading the ball around to his tight ends. He should easily be a top 20 tight end this season.

Positional Group Rankings

Quarterbacks

Bills A+
Dolphins B
Jets B
Patriots B-

Now that the Patriots have a quarterback for the future (hopefully) this is a division loaded with talent at the quarterback position. Josh Allen leads the way and may be the best fantasy quarterback in the league. Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers are very good, but have their flaws for the dynasty fantasy game.

Running Backs

Jets A+
Dolphins A
Patriots B
Bills B

The Jets have the best running back in this division, but the Dolphins may have the best positional group. The Dolphins go three-deep at RB with players who have the upside to be dynasty fantasy superstars. The Patriots and Bills are fine with solid one-two punches.

Wide Receivers

Dolphins A
Jets B+
Patriots D+
Bills D

The Dolphins also have one of the best duos at wide receiver, earning them another A for this positional group. The Jets are top heavy with Garrett Wilson, but Mike Williams is a constant injury risk and the players behind him are not wowing. The Patriots and Bills are relying on rookies and journeymen at wide receiver this year, and it could be a major problem for both teams.

Tight Ends

Bills A
Patriots B-
Jets C+
Dolphins D+

The Bills take the cake for the division at tight end. WIth Dalton Kincaid they have the best tight end in the division, and Dawson Knox may even be the second best in the division. Hunter Henry is a fine, albeit boring option for the Patriots at the position. Tyler Conklin is a good lottery pick for the Jets and Jonnu Smith fits in with the speed element the Dolphins love to have.

Divisional Predictions

MVP: Breece Hall, RB NYJ

It was a horrible year for the running back position in fantasy football last year, but Hall quietly finished as the number two overall running back in fantasy points (over 100 points behind Christian McCaffrey). Hall led all running backs with 76 receptions, and only ran the ball in for five touchdowns. While the passing game numbers might decrease, he should see major regression in his rushing numbers. Hall, at his age and with his upside, could be the RB1 for dynasty fantasy football drafts this time next year.

LVP: De’Von Achane, RB MIA

Data courtesy of DLF ADP History tool.

I’m betting on some major regression for Achane this year. He was historically efficient in 2024, scoring 190.7 PPR points on just 140 opportunities. He leaned on the big play, gaining over half of his yards on explosive runs. He scored 11 touchdowns, one for every 11.8 touches he had. He had an outstanding rookie season, thanks in large part to the 51 PPR fantasy point game he had against the Broncos early in the season, but those numbers have to come back down to earth. He’s undersized and has a bad injury history. He’s in a loaded backfield with two other backs who will demand touches. There’s only one ball in Miami, and plenty of options to spread it around. Valuing Achane at RB8 in dynasty feels like a mistake to me, and I believe his ADP will come back down to earth this season.

Most Improved: Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

Wilson finished as the WR26 last season, scoring only 12.5 fantasy points per game. This year, with Aaron Rodgers under center, he should see a huge jump in production. Wilson honestly deserves some credit for how well he played last year, given the horrible quarterback play he had to deal with. With Rodgers healthy, we’ll finally get to see what this QB-WR tandem looks like on the field. Wilson has top 10 WR upside, easily, in this offense.

Biggest Steal: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE

I’m shocked at how cheap Polk is in dynasty fantasy football. It may have been a reach to pick him when they did, but he’ll have all the opportunity in the world to succeed in New England, and he’s a great fit for Drake Maye’s skillset. At wide receiver 60, there’s at least a dozen wide receivers going ahead of him that I’d take Polk over.

Biggest Bust: Drake Maye, QB NE

I truly believe in Maye’s talent and dynasty upside, so this is more of a projection for this season than it is for the long-term. Anyone drafting Maye hoping they have a QB2 for this season will be mistaken. I believe Jacoby Brissett will win this job out of camp, and he may hold onto it all year long. That’s not an indictment against Maye’s future, it’s a necessity to grow and develop his game. Achane would’ve been my pick for Biggest Bust, but to avoid repetition, I’ll give the honor to Maye.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.