2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Michael Wilson
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Michael Wilson
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Arizona Cardinals
College Team: Stanford
Draft Status: Round Three, Pick 94
Wilson’s situation looks much better now than when the Cardinals drafted him in April. The Cardinals recently released DeAndre Hopkins, leaving room on their wide receiver depth chart. They still have Marquise Brown as their WR1, but he’s their only true, proven player in the entire receiving corps.
Rondale Moore was a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t been able to lock down a consistent role in the offense. Additionally, the Cardinals have Greg Dortch on the roster, but he’s a journeyman talent who profiles similarly to Moore as a smaller, slot-type receiver. Even Brown is only 5-foot-9 and about 180 pounds, although he can play outside. Therefore, considering Wilson’s superior size, he certainly fills a need on the roster.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals’ offense doesn’t profile as a strong group in 2023. Kyler Murray could miss most of the season with his ACL recovery, leaving either Clayton Tune or Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback. I highly doubt Tune or McCoy will support multiple fantasy receivers, especially considering that Moore, Dortch, Wilson, Trey McBride, and Zach Ertz will all compete for targets behind Brown.
TALENT
Michael Wilson Combine Results:
Height: 6’ 2’’
Weight: 213 lbs
Arm: 31’’
Hand: 9 ¾’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.58 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.5 seconds
Vertical Jump: 37.5’’
Broad Jump: 10’ 5’’
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.27 seconds
Bench Press: 23 reps
Wilson’s NFL Combine numbers tell an interesting story. As I referenced earlier, he’s a larger wide receiver, especially compared to the other wide receivers on the Cardinals and in this year’s NFL Draft. He wasn’t particularly fast at 4.58 seconds in the 40-yard dash, but his 10-yard split of 1.5 seconds was impressive.
He also performed strongly in the jumping events, although that’s not surprising considering his height. Most notably, though, he recorded a 96th percentile 23 reps on the bench, displaying his strength. Considering he performed poorly in the 20-yard shuttle and isn’t super agile, he’ll need to win with his strength at the NFL level.
Beyond Wilson’s measurables, evaluating his talent is difficult due to his erratic college career. He started at Stanford in 2018, playing ten games with 14 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown. Then, in 2019, he had his best college season, leading the team in all receiving categories with 56 catches, 672 yards, and five touchdowns. Unfortunately, due to multiple injuries and the COVID-19 pandemic, he only played 14 more games over the next three years.
Luckily, he ended on a somewhat high note in 2022 with 26 receptions, 418 yards, and four touchdowns in only six games. However, a broken collarbone prevented him from fully emphasizing his senior year. Due to his inconsistent college career, I was surprised that he received Day 2 NFL Draft capital. I projected him as a fourth or fifth-round pick coming into the NFL Draft, so the NFL thought more of his talent than I did.
OPPORTUNITY
As I mentioned before, the Cardinals’ depth chart isn’t particularly imposing for Wilson to earn playing time.
The Cardinals don’t have another traditional X receiver outside of veteran backup Zach Pascal, so there’s a chance Wilson earns that starting position from week one of his rookie year. It’s possible that the Cardinals could roll out the smallest wide receiver lineup in the NFL with Brown, Moore, and Dortch in three wide receiver sets, but that won’t last very long.
I’m not expecting Wilson to put up big fantasy numbers or even any real fantasy numbers as a rookie, but he could flash enough talent to earn the clear WR2 role on this roster for 2024. By then, Murray will either return to form, or the Cardinals might have Caleb Williams or Drake Maye as their starting quarterback. Either way, I’d be excited for Wilson’s prospects at that point.
RISK
Wilson’s main risk is that he couldn’t stay on the field in college.
As I alluded to earlier, he missed significant time in all his final three college seasons, failing to display elite play over an entire season at any point in his college career. It’s always challenging to make it in the NFL, and injuries are one of the most common factors that derail an otherwise promising career.
Beyond his injury history, Wilson is also an older prospect, as he turned 23 years old in February. Older prospects don’t typically reach high-end dynasty status and are more susceptible to value declines if they don’t hit early on in their dynasty careers. Considering that the Cardinals are currently starting what seems like a rebuilding process with a new head coach and general manager, Wilson’s dynasty value might get lost in the shuffle.
MARKET
Wilson’s market value has changed over time because of Hopkins’s release. In May’s 1 QB DLF Rookie ADP, he was the WR14 and 33rd overall behind players like Kayshon Boutte, Israel Abanikanda, and Will Levis. Unfortunately, finding a significant sample size of rookie drafts after Hopkins’s release is challenging, but I’ve noticed Wilson’s value rising by a few spots. I rank him WR13 and 29th overall in my 1 QB rookie rankings.
As for startup drafts, Wilson slots in as the WR74 and 171.67 overall in June’s 1 QB DLF Startup ADP. At that price, he seems like a total steal compared to players in his range, like Chase Claypool, Jerick McKinnon, and Ezekiel Elliott. I currently have him at WR66 and 153rd overall, over a round higher in value.
Lastly, I want to examine Wilson’s trade value.
The DLF Trade Analyzer values Wilson as equivalent to a 2024 fourth and fifth-rounder, which seems too low. It’s rare ever to find a Day 2 wide receiver available with those types of picks, let alone one with a legitimate path to immediate playing time. If that’s the price to acquire shares of Wilson, I’d absolutely pay it.
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