2023 Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC North
This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
AFC North Outlook:
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are one of dynasty fantasy football’s most universally loved teams.
They have a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow and two high-end wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I fully expect them to build their offense around those three players long-term, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both Burrow and Higgins receive contract extensions before the season begins.
However, they have some uncertainty across the rest of their roster, especially at the running back position. They let Samaje Perine walk in free agency, replacing him with fifth-round pick Chase Brown. Additionally, they seem unwilling to commit to longtime starter Joe Mixon, although it seems like he will play there one more season.
Beyond the running backs, the Bengals also failed to add any tight ends in the 2023 NFL Draft, leaving Irv Smith Jr. as their starter. But they drafted Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas to muddy the wide receiver room, potentially competing with Tyler Boyd for the WR3 spot. The Bengals are an exciting mix of certainty and uncertainty moving forward.
Baltimore Ravens
Unlike the Bengals, the Ravens have had a tumultuous off-season.
They did manage to sign Lamar Jackson to a massive contract extension, worth $260 million over five years. It’s not a fully guaranteed deal, but the Ravens cannot really escape it until after the 2026 season. Therefore, dynasty managers can project the Ravens to have a Jackson-led offense for at least the next four seasons.
However, beyond Jackson, the Ravens remade their entire offense. They replaced offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken, who plans to employ a more pass-heavy approach. In concert with that, they added Odell Beckham in free agency and used a first-round pick on Zay Flowers. They also failed to add any running backs, leaving holdovers J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill as their backfield committee.
I find the Ravens to be an incredibly simple dynasty roster, though. I have full confidence in Lamar Jackson to be a solid QB1, and I trust Mark Andrews as a high-end tight end. Outside of them, I have almost zero interest in the other options, as they will likely be too inconsistent.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers used to be one of the most hyped dynasty offenses, as they had stability with Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin. However, now they seem to be one of the most unappealing groups, as there’s little hype surrounding them.
This offense doesn’t contain a single high-end dynasty asset. Najee Harris is the only player inside the top 50 in DLF’s May ADP, and even he isn’t inspiring. While he may be the RB11 in that ADP data, I rarely see anyone jumping to trade for him.
As for the rest of the offense, Kenny Pickett is likely why there’s a negative feeling around the Steelers.
He obliterated the Steelers’ receiving game when he played as a rookie, averaging 6.2 Y/A and only throwing seven touchdowns on 389 attempts. Diontae Johnson scored zero touchdowns in 2022, and George Pickens struggled with a low catch rate and low target volume. Additionally, Pat Freiermuth regressed from seven touchdowns in 2021 to two last year.
Moving into 2023, the Steelers mostly kept their offense the same. They added nobody to their quarterback or running back rooms and retained offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Even at wide receiver and tight end, they made minor changes, trading for Allen Robinson and drafting glorified lineman Darnell Washington in the third round. Right now, this feels like an offense to avoid, although that feeling may present a valuable opportunity, especially for the winner of the battle for WR1 between Johnson and Pickens.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are one of the most bizarre dynasty rosters because their entire outlook entirely depends on Deshaun Watson.
They have three solid options to lead their skill position groups in Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku, but none are elite fantasy options. Each of them needs Watson to return to form to unlock their potential fully. Additionally, Chubb and Cooper are about to head over the dynasty age cliff, so if Watson can’t get it together, they will lose most of their remaining dynasty value.
As you can see, Watson played at a Pro Bowl level from 2017-2020, peaking with a high-volume, high-efficiency 2020 performance. However, he missed most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons due to his off-field issues and trade demands, so it’s impossible to know what will happen in 2023. Unfortunately, the Browns fully guaranteed his entire contract, so he will be their quarterback through 2026.
Beyond Chubb, Cooper, and Njoku, the Browns have a few other interesting players, especially Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. They traded their second-round pick for Moore and a third-rounder and then immediately used that third-rounder on Tillman. While I think either Moore or Tillman has room to succeed in this offense, it’s difficult for both to hit.
Positional Group Rankings:
Quarterbacks:
1. Bengals: A
2. Ravens: A
3. Browns: B+
4. Steelers: C
This group was relatively easy to rank. None of these teams have a quarterback competition, and all but the Steelers have a long-term franchise quarterback in place. Watson is the clear third-best here due to the risks discussed above. Between the Bengals and Burrow and the Ravens and Jackson, I have Burrow rated higher, although Jackson could easily overtake him with a strong 2023 performance.
As you can see, Jackson outscored Burrow in two of the last three seasons, and his 2019 MVP season is far superior to any of Burrow’s seasons. However, I believe Burrow is still on an upward trajectory, whereas Jackson’s best running outputs may be behind him. That’s why I rate Burrow slightly higher for dynasty formats.
Running Backs:
1. Steelers: B+
2. Browns: B
3. Ravens: B-
4. Bengals: C
The running backs in this division are also relatively easy to rank. Even though Harris is nothing special, he’s the clear top value in the group, and the Steelers also have my favorite backup in Jaylen Warren. The Browns have Chubb at RB14, the Ravens have Dobbins at RB15, and the Bengals have Mixon at RB21 in May’s DLF ADP. None of those players are appealing at those values, although I agree with their value order. I’m also not impressed by the backups on any of those rosters, leading to their low grades.
Wide Receivers:
1. Bengals: A+
2. Steelers: B-
3. Ravens: C+
4. Browns: C+
Of course, the Bengals have the best dynasty wide receiver room in this division, as they might have the top group in the entire NFL. Interestingly, the Steelers come in second on my list, mainly because Pickens has the most dynasty upside of any player on the other three teams. The Ravens and Browns were very close, but I ranked the Ravens higher because of Zay Flowers. I don’t think any of the Browns’ wide receivers have much room to grow in value like Flowers. However, I prefer the Browns’ depth behind their WR1, as Moore, Tillman, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Bell are much better depth than Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and nothing else.
Tight Ends:
1. Ravens: A
2. Steelers: B+
3. Browns: B-
4. Bengals: C-
Unlike some of the other positional groups, there’s zero doubt about how to rank this set. The Ravens have the best starter in Andrews and the most exciting backup in Isaiah Likely. Similarly, the Steelers have my next favorite starter in Freiermuth and Washington as a backup plan. The Browns have a very mediocre NFL and dynasty tight end room, with middle-aged Njoku as their starter and JAG backups Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins. Lastly, I almost gave the Bengals a failing grade, with Smith Jr.’s solid prospect profile coming into the NFL, saving them from a D or an F.
Divisional Predictions:
MVP: Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but I think 2023 is the year he fully puts his MVP stamp on the dynasty world.
He had 81 receptions, 1,455 yards, and 13 touchdowns in 2021, but he struggled with a few injuries last year. 2023 could be the year where he breaks fantasy football with an 1800-yard season or something along those lines.
LVP: Odell Beckham, WR BAL
Some dynasty managers think that Beckham will provide value in 2023, but those people seem to forget that he hasn’t done anything significant since 2019 for more than a few games at a time. I don’t care if the Ravens overpaid him in free agency. It won’t magically make him younger or bring back his burst after multiple torn ACLs.
Most Improved: Deshaun Watson, QB CLE
Watson seems like the only logical choice for most improved. It seems almost impossible for him to be as bad as he was in 2022. Even if he performs at a league-average level in 2023, he’d probably be the most improved player in this division.
Biggest Steal: George Pickens, WR PIT
These days, I believe dynasty managers are spoiled by high-end rookie seasons like what Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave showed in 2022. By most measures, Pickens had a solid rookie year.
It’s fair to say that 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns is solid for a second-round pick on a bad passing offense. He’s an absolute steal at his current WR34 and 66th overall price.
Biggest Bust: Joe Mixon. RB CIN
It’s hard to be any less interested in a player than I am in Joe Mixon. Generally, when running backs hit the wall, it’s not a gradual decline, and I believe he’s about to fall off a cliff.
He’s never been an efficient back, but he fell to 3.9 YPC last season. Worst of all, he scored five of his nine total touchdowns in one game. The Bengals have tried to get rid of Mixon all off-season, and they will likely only proceed into the season with him as their starter because they have no choice. I’m staying far, far away from him.
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