Dynasty Fantasy Football: Does Size Matter?
With the conclusion of NFL weeks 14 and 15, for most leagues, we’ve come to the end of the fantasy football regular season. At this point of the season, it’s always a great time to look back at your rosters and see what you got right and what you got wrong. This is especially true in dynasty leagues when you assess your previous off-season rookie valuations compared to their freshman season campaign performances to discover what you can do differently in the future.
One thing that became clear to many of us non-devy-types in the dynasty community heading into this past draft season was just how small many of the skill position players in the 2023 draft class were. Starting with pick 1.01 at the top of the draft, with quarterback Bryce Young coming in at 5’10” and 204 pounds to undrafted free agent running back Keaton Mitchell at 5’8″ and 179 pounds, lots of players in this draft were tiny by NFL standards. As a result, many players in this draft fell down dynasty draft boards. Were we wrong?
I’m going to look at DLF’s rookie ADP from May to see where we had initially ranked the incoming rookies amongst themselves early in the process, as well as DLF’s Dynasty Start Up ADP from August to see where they were ranked among veterans right before the NFL season kicked off. I’ll also use the most recent December Start Up ADP from DLF to see where we think the rookies are now that we’ve had 15 weeks of game evidence to rank them against their peers.
THE Quarterback
Bryce Young, QB CAR
With the first overall pick in the NFL draft, the Carolina Panthers selected Alabama’s Bryce Young. With the average NFL quarterback measuring 6’3″ tall and tipping the scales at 225 pounds, Young is well below average in both categories. Although Stetson Bennett, Jaren Hall, and Jake Haener are all below-average size for quarterbacks, none of them had even remotely similar expectations as the first overall pick in real life or fantasy.
In single-QB rookie drafts, Young was pick 18 overall and the QB2. In August’s 1QB startup drafts, he was 123rd overall and QB15, but in December’s startup mock drafts, he fell to QB19. On the season, Stroud is currently QB25, so even with a relatively low ADP for the first overall pick, he has managed to underperform thus far.
While Young and the Panthers as a whole have been a bit of a disappointment, one of the prominent concerns about smaller quarterbacks is that they are more prone to injury. That being said, Young has been incredibly resilient despite his small stature and the Panthers giving up the fourth-most sacks in the NFL (51). Dating back to college, Young has only missed two games due to injury, so he has been remarkably healthy, all things considered.
Change of Pace Backs No More
There have always been undersized running backs in the NFL, but historically, they’ve been lightly used and given the label of “third-down back,” “receiving back,” or “change of pace back.” However, when given a more prominent role, they have, more often than not, failed spectacularly. With the average NFL running back coming in at 5’10” and 213 pounds, Darren Sproles was arguably the most successful undersized back in modern NFL history. This year, three undersized rookie backs have burst onto the scene.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
With the 12th pick of the first round, the Detroit Lions selected the 5’9″, 199-pound Jahmyr Gibbs. He was the second overall pick in rookie drafts and RB2, behind only Bijan Robinson, and that carried over into startup drafts, where Gibbs was RB3, as the 12th pick overall. Currently, Gibbs is RB13 despite missing a couple of games, and with backfield-mate David Montgomery coming in at RB20. While Gibbs has been relatively healthy in the NFL, he did sustain a couple of significant injuries in college that cost him multiple games at Georgia Tech and Alabama, so he seems likely to miss a few games each season, as are many running backs. A month ago Gibbs was leapfrogged by Breece Hall and Travis Etienne, settling in at RB5, but this month, he is back at RB3 once again.
De’Von Achane, RB MIA
The Miami Dolphins selected De’Von Achane with the 21st pick of the third round. The former 2020 Texas Gatorade Boys Track & Field Athlete of the Year was known to be speedy, but at 5’9″ and 188 pounds, there were some concerns about his durability coming in. He did miss two games in college, and in his brief NFL career, Achane has already sustained two injuries that cost him games, including a stint on injured reserve. If there is some silver lining, it is that currently, he’s only behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, who are both known to miss plenty of games themselves. While Achane’s durability has been a concern (rightfully so), when he has been on the field, he’s been incredible, currently sitting as RB4 on a point-per-game basis. In August’s startups, Achane was RB28, and his explosive performances have made the dynasty community big believers, as he has shot up to RB6 in the most recent December mocks.
Keaton Mitchell, RB BAL
Undrafted free agent Keaton Mitchell landed with the Baltimore Ravens following the draft (fun fact: Mitchell’s father, Anthony Mitchell, was also a UDFA signed by the Baltimore Ravens). Mitchell was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury to start the season, but since his return to the active roster, he’s played a significant role out of the Ravens’ backfield. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per carry and, since week nine, has led the team in either carries or rushing yards in four of their last five games. In rookie drafts, Mitchell was 52nd overall as RB19, while in startups, he was 154th overall and RB50. Currently ranking as RB56 after only playing six games and RB35 on a point-per-game basis, Mitchell is flying up draft boards over the last month, all the way up to RB30 in December’s mocks after being RB48 in November.
It should come as no surprise that Achane (4.32), Gibbs (4.36), and Mitchell (4.37) ran the three fastest 40-yard dash times at the combine. If you’re going to be undersized, it helps to be exceptionally fast. In a world where bigger NFL backs often miss time due to injury, there is a warranted concern about the durability of these smaller backs. Despite their ability on the field, you must ensure you add plenty of depth at the position if you plan to roster any of the above long-term. In general, history tells us the position is injury-prone, and more specifically, all three of them have missed games in college and during their first season in the NFL.
Widdle Weceivers
Looking into this class ahead of the draft, I was taken aback by how small several of the known receivers were. With the average NFL wide receiver coming in at an even 6 feet tall and 200 pounds, I bumped several incoming rookies down in my rankings and elevated the bigger receivers in the class. In hindsight, that looks to have been a big mistake. We often see cyclical trends in the NFL. We’ve been through phases where big-bodied receivers seem to be en vogue and other times where smaller, shiftier receivers seem to be in favor. It now looks like the 2023 class might be the tip of the spear for another batch of smaller receivers carving out more significant roles in the NFL.
Zay Flowers, WR BAL
Many people’s favorite receiver in this class heading into the NFL draft, the 5’9″, 182-pound Flowers, landed in what was thought to be a less-than-ideal landing spot with the Ravens. As a result, his draft stock took a minor hit, and he became the WR4 in rookie drafts and WR31 in startups. Now WR27 in fantasy scoring, fantasy owners have seen enough through 14 games to bump Flowers up to WR20 in ADP. The common misperception has been that the Ravens need to get Flowers more involved, but he’s surprisingly been targeted 6.9 times per game through week 14- more than any rookie not named Puka Nacua.
Jordan Addison, WR MIN
As my favorite receiver coming into draft season, I was surprised to see Addison weigh only 173 pounds on his 5’11” frame. Addison helped Kenny Pickett become a first-round pick and helped Caleb Williams win a Heisman Trophy- they both owe him a beer. Addison has convinced many others that he is the real deal, too, as he went from WR20 in August to WR14 in December based on start-up ADP. Through week eight, with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, Addison was WR11. He is now WR23, which is a miracle considering he was forced into the team’s WR1 role with Justin Jefferson out for seven games and some combination of Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullens throwing him the ball.
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Jayden Reed, WR GB
The 5’11”, 187-pound Michigan State product wound up as the sixth receiver taken in the NFL draft but was WR9 in fantasy rookie drafts and WR58 in startups. Through 13 games, Reed has been very good, catching 48 of his 74 targets for a Packer-leading 540 yards. Reed has also added 11 carries for an additional 119 yards and scored seven total touchdowns – good enough to make him WR31 through the fantasy regular season. Last month, his ADP was in the WR46 range which made him look like a prime target this off-season, however, he is now WR34 and the buy-now window seems to have slammed shut.
Marvin Mims, Jr, WR DEN
For whatever reason, 2023 appears to be a lost season for the 5’11” 184-pound Oklahoma product. Drafted 16th overall in rookie drafts and as WR57 in startups, Mims’ current standing as WR83 on the year has definitely hurt some teams this year. It’s not like Jerry Jeudy has done anything this season to warrant Mims not getting an extended look down the stretch, so it has been disappointing, to say the least. The only positive here is that if you still believe in the talent, he can probably be acquired on the cheap.
Tank Dell, WR HOU
Dell looked great on tape and drew rave reviews during Senior Bowl week, but I was terrified of drafting a 5’8″ 165-pound receiver. I could see his talent as a route runner and his ability to gain separation, but we’ve seen way too many, way too small, receivers disappoint way too much, so I backed off- and I’ve been kicking myself ever since. Dell was WR13 in rookie drafts (31st overall) and WR76 in startups (173 overall) but was WR14 in points scored through week 12 when he sustained a season-ending injury. Dell was carrying teams following Houston’s week seven bye, as Dell was WR3 overall from weeks eight through 12 when he accumulated 100.7 points over those five contests. As a result, Dell’s ADP shot up like a rocket. In November, he was 80th overall as WR41, now Dell is 24th overall and WR17. What an epic climb of nearly five rounds in draft positioning and 24 spots among receivers. It’s a shame his rookie season wrapped up early with an injury just as he seemed to be hitting his stride.
Josh Downs, WR IND
One of my favorite dynasty hacks is targeting rookie receivers on teams who also drafted a quarterback. Even if it is short-lived (think Darius Slayton and Daniel Jones), it can’t hurt to grab a receiver who is learning with and bonding on the job with the guy responsible for getting him the ball. This was the case with the 5’9″, 171-pound Downs, drafted with the 16th pick of the third round to play alongside fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. Despite not having the draft capital as others ahead of him, the dynasty community didn’t seem to care, as he was 14th overall in rookie drafts and WR6 while being 132nd overall as WR61 in startup drafts. Currently sitting as WR41 on the season, dynasty owners aren’t pumping the brakes on the hype train just yet, as he is now 55th overall as WR30 in the most recent startups.
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Demario Douglas, WR NE
Coming out of Liberty, the 5’8″, 179-pounder was not on anyone’s radar during rookie drafts as he largely went undrafted. With complete and utter garbage at quarterback all year on one of the league’s worst offenses, Douglas has managed to carve out a role for himself in Foxborough and has managed a WR69 finish through 14 weeks despite not getting in the endzone. We may have been late to the party, but Douglas has rocketed up the ADP boards after being an afterthought only four months ago. Douglas is currently WR50, 105th overall, in ADP. From obscurity to being drafted in the same range as the Marvin Mims, Jonathan Mingos, and Jalin Hyatts of the world, things are looking up for Douglas with an anticipated change at coach and quarterback.
Xavier Gipson, WR NYJ
The only undrafted receiver to make the list, Gipson has overcome many obstacles to even be on the fantasy radar. Undersized at 5’9″ and 189-pounds, plus undrafted, plus buried behind Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman to start the season, and being paired with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who notoriously isn’t the biggest fan of rookie receivers all pointed in this being a one-and-done career for Gipson. Instead, Gipson has played his way into the starting slot receiver role as we enter the fantasy playoffs. It will be interesting to watch how his development continues for the remainder of the season and through the offseason, as he is now WR87 in ADP after being WR111 a month ago- an equal rise among receivers as Tank Dell. Considering there is a 50/50 chance he will be the starting slot receiver for Aaron Rodgers in 2024, he’s one of the most exciting dart throws of the next nine months, and he’ll probably see his ADP continue to rise.
The old saying “don’t judge a book by its cover” applies in all walks of life, but as we have seen through this fantasy regular season, it absolutely applies to NFL prospects. Numerous pundits and scouts discounted several of the above players based only on what we perceived to be a lack of size. I’ll use my second cliche of the paragraph and say sometimes it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. We’ve seen many of the above players excel this season, even in what we perceive to be bad situations for fantasy. If their respective teams can improve a year from now, it wouldn’t be crazy for seven of the “small” 2023 receivers to finish in the top 36 and two of the “small” 2023 running backs to finish in the top 10.
Oddly enough, the lone outlier will probably end up being the one with the most draft capital of them all, Mr. 1.01 himself, Bryce Young. Young will have a new head coach in 2024, likely a new offensive system, minimal talent on offense to work with, and limited draft capital, and won’t have a significant amount of salary cap space until 2025 or 2026. With the exceptions of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and maybe Kyler Murray, if you’re feeling generous, there have not been many undersized quarterback success stories at the NFL level.
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