Dynasty Fantasy Football: 2023 Rookie Rankings Retrospective

Before we flip the calendar to a new year, it’s already time to start thinking about the 2024 rookies in dynasty fantasy football! Last week, Dynasty League Football published our first rookie rankings for the 2024 season! But, before we can start calling the 2023 rookies “sophomores,” we have time to take a step back and analyze last year’s rankings, what went well, and what lessons we can apply to the 2024 NFL Draft Class.

Below is a snapshot of our 2023 1QB Rookie Rankings taken from early June, 2023.

WHO WE GOT RIGHT

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB7; 16.3 PPG)

The Detroit Lions shocked the world when they took Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Dan Campbell must’ve been reading DLF, because we were all over Gibbs as the RB2 in this draft class from the very beginning.

Rookie Rankings in March had Gibbs as the third overall pick in 1-QB rookie drafts, and the second running back selected after Bijan Robinson. Gibbs has been so explosive in this Lions offense. Amongst all running backs with at least 100 attempts so far, he’s second to Jaylen Warren in YPC with 5.4 yards. He’s been dynamic in the receiving game as well, catching 45 balls for 288 yards. 45 catches is 6th amongst all running backs.

Gibbs benefitted from a mid-season David Montgomery injury, but he earned a large role in this offense from the jump. He’s a dynamic, home run hitter who looks like a young Alvin Kamara out there. An argument can be made that, going forward, Gibbs is the RB1 in dynasty from this draft class. Bijan Robinson had an impressive season as well, but he’s stuck in that frustrating Arthur Smith offensive scheme. But, Robinson has outscored Gibbs so far this season 189 to 179. Robinson also has a chance to be a non-sharer in a future iteration of this backfield, while Gibbs will likely always be in a timeshare. The DLF Rankings have Robinson at RB1 and Gibbs at RB4.

Jordan Addison (WR28; 13 PPG) & Zay Flowers (WR31; 12.5 PPG)

Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers were always at the top of Dynasty Rookie Rankings during last year’s draft season. There were flaws for both players, but DLF ranked them as the WR2 and WR4 respectively in the first run of rookie rankings last year. Out of the four first round wide receivers, Addison and Flowers have had the best season, both of them playing as number three wide receivers on fantasy teams this year, but flashing high-end WR2 upside going forward. Their rookie seasons have only been outdone by surprising studs Puka Nacua and Tank Dell so far.

We are seeing a changing of the guard at the wide receiver position. Where once, a 5’ 9”, 182 lbs wide receiver would never sniff the first round, we now see several undersized players succeed as first round picks. Zay Flowers especially epitomizes that trend. Speed and separation are valued more and more over the large, freakishly athletic wide receivers of the past. Zay Flowers’s game is all about separation and yards after catch. Flowers is third amongst wide receivers with at least 50 catches in average separation (3.5 Yards). He’s also first amongst all players with 7.7 yards of average cushion, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He’s only had one contested catch all season. It’s a different game, and undersized, speedy wide receivers like Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison can play much bigger than their size.

Anthony Richardson (QB9; 18.2 PPG)

While athletic freaks may be going out of style at the wide receiver position, they can pay huge dividends at the quarterback position. What we saw from Anthony Richardson while he was on the field was nothing short of incredible. In his two full games, he scored 20.92 and 29.6 fantasy points. He ran for four rushing touchdowns on 25 attempts this season. He is far from the most accurate passer, but he protected the football and gave the Colts a chance to win in every game he played. Unfortunately, injuries were a major problem for Richardson, and his season ended after a week five shoulder injury.

There were plenty of concerns coming with Richardson before he started his NFL career. He only played one season at Florida as the starting quarterback, and his production with the Gators was, in a word, horrible. He was inaccurate, raw, and incredibly frustrating. It was easy to see why he was on the radar as a future star in the NFL, but he had some major hurdles to overcome.

Despite the flaws in his game, Richardson was DLF’s number three quarterback from the very start, and the number one quarterback after the Colts took him with the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft. While injuries kept him off the field this season, dynasty managers have to be excited for the future with Anthony Richardson. He is the QB9 in our DLF Dynasty QB Rankings.

Will Levis (QB29; 12.1 PPG)

In the pre-draft process, Will Levis was the quarterback that nobody wanted in the dynasty fantasy football world. Despite the rumors that he could go as high as the number one overall pick, Levis remained outside of the first round of rookie rankings, even in superflex leagues. The rumors ended up being unfounded, as Levis fell all the way down to the second pick of the second round.

Levis is an athletic quarterback with great arm talent, but he struggled mightily in his final season at Kentucky. Dynasty managers were worried he had to transfer out of Penn State when he couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford for a job. He also threw way too many picks at the college level.

Will Levis got a chance to start this year when Ryan Tannehill went out with an injury. His debut had dynasty managers kicking themselves for passing on him. He threw for 238 and four touchdowns in a win over the Falcons. He was the number six quarterback in the league in week eight. In his five starts since then, not including week 14, he has averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game. That average is good enough for QB40 in points per game this season.

Will Levis will likely have the starting job in Tennessee next season. He hasn’t been so bad that they need to give up on him, but it hasn’t been very pretty. There are plenty of holes on this team, and hopefully, they can add some talent around Levis. He is the QB 27 in DLF Dynasty QB Rankings.

De’Von Achane (RB2, 21.4 PPG)

Achane could be in the right category or the wrong category, depending on your point of view. On one hand, he was a dynasty first round pick and he earned that draft spot. He was exactly what dynasty managers believed he would be, an explosive, small-sized back who could struggle with injuries. On the other hand, perhaps dynasty managers weren’t high enough on him. From what we saw from Achane on the field, he should’ve been in the tier with Robinson and Gibbs, not in the Zach Charbonnet and Kendre Miller tier.

Achane’s rookie season has been absolutely outstanding. In the four full games he’s played so far, he’s averaged 29.3 points per game. His 51.3 points in week two is the best running back fantasy game of the season so far. The injury bug has bitten him, and will likely be a nuisance throughout his entire career, but he’s a locked-in stud whenever he is on the field.

The chart above shows Achane’s meteoric rise in dynasty value since the season started. This is why you could say the dynasty community was actually wrong about Achane. While he was a first round rookie pick, he jumped from being ranked 105.6 overall in September all the way up to a top 30 pick in November. The DLF Rankings have him as an RB1 for dynasty leagues, ranked at RB11.

WHO WE GOT WRONG

Quentin Johnston (WR86; 5.3 PPG)

Did you pick Quentin Johnston over Demario Douglas in your dynasty rookie drafts? You’re kicking yourself if you did, as Douglas, a sixth round pick, has outscored the first round pick 77.9 to 68.5. Johnston has been, bar none, the biggest bust in one quarterback leagues this season. Everything has gone right for him to come through as a rookie, with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer both dealing with injuries, but he has been horrible.

He’s only caught 29 balls for 333 yards and 1 touchdown this season. Amongst receivers who have run at least 50 routes this season, Johnston is tied for 97th in targets per route run with 0.16. He is not getting open and, when he is, he is struggling to bring in catches.

As mentioned above, the league is moving away from the tall, contested catch receiver and moving more toward speed and separation. Of Johnston’s 44 targets, 13 of them have been contested, per Fantasy Points Data. He’s tied for 22nd in the number of contested targets, and only Allen Lazard has fewer targets and more contested targets than Johnston (14 of his 43 targets have been contested). It isn’t a formula for success in the NFL anymore, and Johnston just does not seem talented enough to overcome coverage from NFL defensive backs.

Johnston’s value peaked at 55th overall in dynasty fantasy football rankings. He is all the way down to 81st now. He’s the WR40 in the DLF Rankings, behind rookies who were picked much later than him like Tank Dell and Puka Nacua.

Bryce Young (QB36; 10 PPG)

While Quentin Johnston is the biggest bust of 1-QB dynasty leagues this year, Bryce Young, the number one overall pick, has been a major letdown in superflex dynasty leagues. Young is barely averaging double-digit fantasy points a game, and ranks behind players like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow, and Desmond Ridder in total fantasy points. The number one pick was likely a top three pick in dynasty rookie drafts, and as we get deeper into the 2023 season, that’s looking more and more like a wasted pick.

Bryce Young’s fantasy production hit an all-time low in week 14 against the New Orleans Saints. He scored 7.48 points, thanks in large part to 40 rushing yards. While it was technically only his fourth-worst game, it was absolutely the ugliest. He completed only 13 balls on 36 attempts for a measly 137 yards. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Young lost 27.5 expected points added on Young’s plays. His 36% completion percentage resulted in a -16% completion percentage over expectation.

Size was a concern for Bryce Young, but what he lacked in size, he made up for in processing and arm talent. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to the NFL at all. He looks uncomfortable in the pocket and he’s rushing throws, missing open receivers. The supporting cast in Carolina has been bad, and he’s already on play-caller number three this season, but he hasn’t shown the ability to overcome adversity. The Panthers are stuck with Young, after trading away this year’s number one pick to take him, so they will need to develop their young QB in the offseason. Hopefully, they can get him some better pass targets and a competent offensive line.

It’s too early to call Bryce Young a total bust. Quarterback is the toughest position in all of sports, and Young is just a rookie who probably would have benefitted from sitting behind a veteran for a year. The vibes are really bad in Carolina, but hopefully, they can bring in a coach to develop him and save his career. But, for the dynasty managers that passed on CJ Stroud to take Bryce Young, things are looking bleak. He is the QB16 in DLF Dynasty QB Rankings.

Puka Nacua (WR12; 17.1 PPG), Tank Dell (WR17; 15 PPG) & Rashee Rice (WR35; 12.2 PPG)

Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and Rashee Rice were not sought after targets in rookie drafts this season, but have been very impressive and pushed their stock up quite a bit in dynasty leagues. In March of last year, Rashee Rice was the WR8, and Tank Dell was the WR15 in rookie drafts. Nacua was all the way down at WR22. All of them were well outside the first round of rookie drafts, and they have been outstanding values this season.

One thing to pay attention to with these players is team context. They all filled a very important role on their teams right from the start, even though their draft capital wasn’t as impressive as other players in the draft. Nacua benefitted from a Kupp injury, but he was slotted into a starting WR position right away, even with Kupp in the depth chart. Rice joined a group of Kansas City wide receivers who have struggled since the Tyreek Hill trade. Houston’s wide receivers were bottom of the pack, and CJ Stroud reportedly lobbied for the team to draft Dell.

Team context doesn’t always work out, but in hindsight, these players seem to be much more important to their NFL teams than Dynasty fantasy managers expected them to be. The DLF Wide Receiver Rankings have Nacua as the WR21, Dell as the WR27, and Rice as the WR41 going forward.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED

Overall, the dynasty community and DLF seem to have gotten more right than wrong with this past year’s rookie class. The 2023 class has a long road ahead of them, and opinions can drastically change with these players in the coming years. But, if a dynasty manager mostly followed the DLF rookie rankings, they likely came out of the draft pretty happy.

A lesson learned at quarterback is that draft capital is important, but oftentimes we don’t need to take quarterbacks in the same order that the NFL teams do. Last year, you could argue the top 3 quarterbacks should’ve been flipped in dynasty value compared to their NFL Draft picks. Anthony Richardson could have the most value going forward, followed by CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. Going back to the last QB-heavy first round in 2021, we see a similar trend. Trevor Lawrence was the first quarterback selected, but then Zach Wilson and Trey Lance have been busts. You were better off taking Justin Fields, or even Mac Jones ahead of those two, even though they went much later in the actual NFL Draft.

At Running Back, we may see a trend where NFL teams are valuing speed more than ever at the position. The Dolphins have been the most dynamic offense in the NFL this year, and every skill position player they have on that team has track star speed, including De’Von Achane. Dynamic playmakers, such as Achane or Jahmyr Gibbs, should be targeted over the grinders at the position.

It’s a similar lesson learned at the wide receiver position. Speed is the most sought after skill in the NFL right now, to the point that we can ignore some of the red flags about size. For wide receivers that do have size, they need to prove at the college level that they can gain separation from defenders there, or they will likely struggle to do so at the professional level. We also need to pay attention to team context when looking for sleepers later in rounds. If there is a path to success, a late-round receiver like Tank Dell or Puka Nacua could be a league-winning pick.

We didn’t learn much at tight end, but one thing that we confirmed is that first-year tight ends can produce and succeed in pass-catching roles right away. The narrative that it could take a few years for a tight end to develop may still be true, but players like Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta have the ability to succeed right away in the right offense. Looking at DLF’s first rookie rankings of the year for 2024, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers could be a major needle-mover for a team trying to contend next season.

HOW CAN WE APPLY THIS FOR NEXT YEAR

Next year’s rookie class is loaded with talent at Quarterback and Wide Receiver. Brock Bowers is a stud at tight end, but he’ll likely be the only high-end player at the position. The running back position looks rough, with only one running back in the top 12 early on.

While we spent much of this article talking about the shift at WR away from the large, athletic specimens, Marvin Harrison Jr. is an absolute exception. He is a stud that could even be the #1 overall pick in superflex drafts. After him, focus on the players that can get open at the college level. If a receiver seems to always be making highlight reel catches against college defenders, they may struggle to gain separation at the NFL level.

While there are no high-end running backs in this class, we’re bound to see a few sleepers emerge between now and the end of the 2024 season. Landing spots will be important for these backs. There needs to be a path to playing time early on in the career for a running back to be worth a pick. Look for NFL teams to target speedy, dynamic running backs earlier in drafts with the emergence of the Dolphins offense this season.

Finally, at quarterback, don’t marry yourself to the order these players are picked in the NFL Draft. Caleb Williams will very likely be the number one overall pick, and the number one pick in rookie superflex drafts. After that, analyze the situations these players are going into, and focus on the players who can get it done with their legs and their arms. Anthony Richardson is a once-in-a-lifetime prospect, and nobody will be able to put up the Combine numbers that he did. With Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix at the top of the QB draft board, there could be some very intriguing values at the position.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.

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