Dynasty GAAP Memo: Justin Fields
I am a CPA who fits the typical accountant stereotype. I enjoy writing technical accounting memos, accounting research (yes, it is a thing), and analyzing the financial statements of a business. In accounting, you often must evaluate qualitative and quantitative factors during complex transactions to forecast future performance. I have found that the outlook and rationale of evaluating business transactions parallels another interest of mine, dynasty fantasy football.
In dynasty, we are given both quantitative factors (athletic scores, draft capital, college production, etc.) and qualitative factors (camp hype, team situation, injury history, etc.) that we must consider and evaluate to derive an estimate or projection of a player. Then, we must take calculated risks based on our team’s overall financial statements (i.e., current roster and league). I could go on and on with accounting-based puns and comparisons, but I think you get it.
I will note that I will write in the form of “accounting memos.” For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will outline the applicable “guidance” or accounting literature utilized and supply background. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic.
To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”. And yes, this is a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” and my wife did come up with it.
Purpose:
The purpose of this memo is to perform scenario planning for Justin Fields, quarterback for the Chicago Bears, to assess his dynasty value.
Background:
If anyone is in a league with me, you knew this memo was eventually coming. I figured I would give thanks this week to one of my favorite players to root for. Full disclosure, I just happened to acquire Fields in all my dynasty leagues this off-season. I will do my best to keep my bias out of this memo, but I apologize if you pick up a bit of rose-colored glasses.
Throughout Justin Fields’ football career, NFL scouts and fantasy managers have been enthralled with his upside. This dates to 2018, when he was the second overall high school prospect by 247Sports (the first was Trevor Lawrence). After going to Georgia and then transferring to Ohio State, Fields was 20-2 with back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances. He was then selected 11th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears. He was the fourth QB selected in that draft (behind Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance). However, a lot of draft analysts had Fields as the QB2 in the class and, based upon Wilson and Lance not currently being NFL starters, that feels right.
Prior to entering the NFL, Fields’ football career had been “rainbows and sunshine” with success and elite production following the young dual-threat QB. That all fell apart in his rookie season. In 2021, he went 2-8 as a starter while only passing for 180 yards with 39 rushing yards with 0.8 TDs (passing or rushing) per game. The lack of wins and overall dysfunction eventually got the Bears head coach Matt Nagy fired. Matt Eberflus was then handpicked to groom Fields. However, through the first five weeks of 2022, Fields’ numbers declined. He was only passing for 136 yards, rushing for 39 with 0.8 TDs (passing or rushing) per game. That changed in week six when someone reminded Fields that he was an elite prospect because of his dual-threat ability. He then proceeded to ramble off eight consecutive QB1 scoring weeks and averaged 155 passing yards, 110 rushing yards, and 3 TDs (passing and rushing) on his way to finishing as QB7 overall on the season.
This led many NFL fans, analysts, and dynasty managers to have sky-high hopes entering the 2023 season. This was further kindled by the addition of a WR1 in DJ Moore via trade with the Carolina Panthers. Thus far, Fields has been doing his best Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde impressions. During the first three weeks of the season, he averaged 175 pass yards, 36 rushing yards, and 1 TD (passing and rushing) per game. Since then, excluding week six when he got hurt, Fields averaged 262 passing yards, 62 rushing yards, and 3 TDs (passing and rushing) per game. However, even his boom fantasy games have been riddled with turnovers and other costly mistakes in the fourth quarter.
While Fields is talented, he is far from a “sure thing” with a 6-26 record as a starter thus far. He needs to continue to evolve as an NFL QB (i.e., eliminate turnovers, increase processing speed, etc.). The discussion below will explore his dynasty value.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based upon real dynasty startups.
Analysis:
Fields has proven to have elite fantasy upside. If he is playing, chances are that fantasy managers are starting him due to his rushing ability. However, from a dynasty perspective, especially in superflex) managers are starting to worry about his longevity as an NFL starter. With his 6-26 record, managers are right to be concerned and the rest of the 2023 season will be paramount for his long-term future in the NFL. This memo will not attempt to dissect Fields as a player or even look at advanced metrics, film, or on-field performance. Instead, we will assess his longevity as an NFL starter and in return, our dynasty teams.
We are going to utilize a business forecasting strategy called scenario planning to evaluate his longevity. In business, scenario planning helps decision-makers identify ranges of potential outcomes and impacts, evaluate responses, and manage both positive and negative possibilities. The theory is that by visualizing potential risks and opportunities, businesses can become proactive versus simply reacting to events.
I will lay out the various scenarios that I foresee as outcomes based on my judgment. I will then assess the likelihood of that outcome and the dynasty impact.
Scenario 1: “To the MOON!”
Fields gets hot for the rest of the 2023 season and leads the Bears to win three or more games. He leads the way, showing pose and executing under pressure. The Bears start to see him as their long-term franchise QB and pick up his fifth-year option and they draft future All-Pro receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Likelihood: Could happen, but probably not.
Currently, the Bears have a 61% chance to pick No 1 in the NFL draft. Oddly enough, that is primarily because of their trade with the 1-9 Carolina Panthers that gave the Panthers the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Per ProFootballNetwork, the Bears have the 16th hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. With the Vikings, Lions, Browns, Cardinals, Falcons, and Packers on the schedule. I could see the Bears beating the Cardinals, Falcons, and maybe Packers. But that is a big “maybe” and not necessarily something on which I would bet.
Outcome if this happens: Fields is a long-term QB1.
If this happens, Fields’ value is too low (current QB10 on DLF). That will cement him in the second tier of QBs for me behind Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen. His combination of rushing ability with DJ Moore, Harrison Jr, Cole Kmet and potential other additions through the draft and free agency is too much to ignore.
Scenario 2: “They are who we thought they were.”
We see more of the same with Fields. Electric playmaking ability coupled with troublesome turnovers and low processing speeds. The Bears win potentially one or two more games and have the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They then proceed to pick Caleb Williams, USC. After which, Fields is traded for high draft capital. He is the opening day starter for another team in 2024.
Likelihood: Probable.
As a Fields truther, somehow Williams has become my personal rival. However, if I take a step back, he is really good. Draft analysts have been saying things like “he is the best prospect since Andrew Luck” or “he reminds me of Patrick Mahomes due to his playmaking ability.” If the Bears agree (and I think they will), you must take him and move on. However, what makes this scenario interesting is that Fields will have done enough to earn a second chance. If players like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold got second and sometimes third chances, Fields will.
I reviewed the teams that had picks outside the top five in the projected NFL draft. The thought is that these teams would not be able to draft an elite QB prospect themselves and be pursuing a QB change. Based on these considerations, I identified a few that I thought made sense below:
- Atlanta Falcons – Can you imagine an offense that is not coached by Arthur Smith with Justin Fields, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts? Sign me up to watch that.
- Las Vegas Raiders – They already had a coaching and GM change this season and I am not sure the new hires are going to see Aidan O’Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo as the long-term solutions. This spot will be dependent upon the coaching hire and if weapons like Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs stick around in 2024.
- Washington Commanders – This is another ideal landing spot from a weapons perspective (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson). Sam Howell has been doing his best Jameis Winston impression (lots of yards, lots of turnovers), but I am still not convinced. He might have earned another season, but I could see this fit making sense. Watching Eric Bieniemy scheme plays for Fields would be a lot more fun to watch.
Outcome if this happens: Fields is a short-term asset with long-term upside.
The sequel to this scenario is what makes this interesting. Fields could be the next Sam Darnold and bounce around and never find a home. He could also channel Drew Brees and become a future Hall of Famer for a different team than the one that drafted him.
If he succeeds, he is a 24-year-old franchise QB and should be around QB7 or QB8. If he fails, he is valued appropriately at QB10 (DLF rank).
Scenario 3: “He is not HIM.”
Fields regresses and struggles down the stretch. The Bears move on and trade the young QB for mid-round draft capital. Fields enters 2024 training camp with his new team in a QB battle and loses. He then proceeds to be a long-term backup in the NFL but is fun to watch when he has an opportunity.
Likelihood: Remote.
The Bears have four games against favorable matchups on the schedule (Vikings, Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons). I would expect Fields and the Bears offense to have some success in those games and string together a couple of good games from a production standpoint, not wins. I expect there to be a lot of interest in Fields. Additionally, the NFL is desperate for QB talent. I know a few will get rookies from this coveted class, but there are only a handful of NFL teams currently confident in their long-term QB.
I would bet on Fields landing on his feet for at least the next couple of seasons.
Outcome if this happens: Fields is a backend QB3 with upside.
Think Geno Smith before 2022 or Joshua Dobbs before 2023.
Conclusion:
The scenario planning above on Fields’ long-term outlook helps fantasy managers understand the effects of various plausible events. By building awareness of what could happen, we may spot warning signs of brewing challenges and respond accordingly. I think time will tell. However, the floor of scenario three has been overblown by the fantasy community. As a fan, I search “Justin Fields” on Twitter/X weekly and everyone loves to hate on the guy. He will land somewhere for the 2024 season and have an opportunity (and better coaching).
If you read last week’s memo, I am always chasing upside and Fields’ rushing ability from a fantasy perspective is exactly that. I conservatively view Fields as a low-end QB1. If the owner in your league is growing increasingly skeptical, I would be offering the following:
- Mid-first plus second-round pick with aging veteran (in superflex): In superflex, you often must give a QB to get one. As such, someone like Matthew Stafford might make sense in this deal.
- Late first-rounder (non-superflex): This is assuming you are a contender and do not have a top-five dynasty QB.
- Bryce Young plus picks (in superflex): I just would rather bet on a 6’3” and 227-pound passer who has the second most rushing yards in a season ever over a 5’10” and generous 204-pound passer.
“I’m not blaming anything on the coaches.”
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